Thunderstorms and strong winds to impact Arizona on Thursday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Thursday, 20 Jun 2024, stronger gusty winds and thunderstorms will be expected for the eastern half of Arizona. This is part of the initial monsoonal shift to southeasterly winds, which will transport the initial tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Model wind gust potential on Thursday 20 Jun 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

The tightening low-level flow will shift to the southeast, and the pressure gradient will also tighten. Starting in the late morning to early afternoon, Eastern Arizona will experience surface gradient wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range, as depicted in the above image. The strongest gusts will be in northern Cochise, Graham, Gila, Southern Apache, and southern Navajo Counties. Additionally, higher terrain will get stronger gusts. These winds are gradient gusts not associated with convective activity.

Model data showing potential thunderstorms for Thursday 20 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

With the initial influx of tropical moisture, isolated thunderstorms will likely occur in Northern Arizona and Gila County and may impact the vicinity of Payson, Globe, and Tucson. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be isolated and in the mountains. The skew-t indices indicate moderate instability with CAPE values around 1,200 to 1,500; LI values -4 to -5, and DCAPE values around 1,800. The data indicates severe, not highly likely, but a good chance of 50 – 60 mph convective gusts and small hail.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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