Preview: UFC on ABC 6 ‘Whittaker vs. Aliskerov’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship makes its long-awaited debut in Saudi Arabia with UFC on ABC 6 this Saturday at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, and it should help pick up what has been a lackluster June schedule thus far. The main event sees a late change but remains quite interesting. The initial pairing of middleweights Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev could have resulted in a title shot for the latter, but he instead gets replaced by a divisional dark horse in Ikram Aliskerov , who finally gets a chance at a breakout win. The co-headliner pits Sergei Pavlovich against Alexander Volkov and should sort out a piece of the heavyweight division. Meanwhile, the rest of the bill should provide some excitement. Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez figure to meet one another head-on, and there are any number of possibilities that could happen in a Johnny Walker outing.

Now to the UFC on ABC 6 “Whittaker vs. Aliskerov” preview:

Middleweights

#3 MW | Robert Whittaker (25-7, 16-5 UFC) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (15-1, 2-0 UFC)

ODDS: Whittaker (-142), Aliskerov (+120)

The situation somehow worked out for Aliskerov, at least in terms of getting a shot at a breakthrough victory. Aliskerov was already well-tested ahead of his 2022 win on Dana White’s Contender Series—his lone professional loss came to the aforementioned Chimaev—so he looked like a talent that the UFC could move up the ladder quickly. Indeed, he got a tough test for his UFC debut in May 2023 against Phil Hawes , which showed both the positives and negatives of Aliskerov’s approach. He seemed to have some issues initially dealing with an opponent who could physically hold up to his bullying style, but Aliskerov solved the problem in the simplest manner, swinging for the knockout until he found Hawes’ chin. It has been a challenge for Aliskerov to get his next step up in competition, despite the UFC’s best efforts. Fights against ranked or near-ranked opponents Paulo Costa , Nassourdine Imavov , Anthony Hernandez and Andre Muniz have each fallen through for various reasons. Aliskerov was at least able to get some work in against Warlley Alves for a quick win in October, and up until a few days ago it appeared he would have to settle for another one-sided win over a late replacement newcomer in Antonio Trocoli . However, with Chimaev suddenly out of this headliner against Whittaker, Aliskerov steps in to try and announce himself as a title contender with a win over the former champion.

Whittaker is in a tough spot at the moment. He’s clearly still on the fringes of the middleweight elite, but his losses have left him without much of a path back to the title picture in the short term. As a result, it’s time for “The Reaper” to just keep winning and hope things eventually break his way. Whittaker was an early example of the benefits of bucking the conventional wisdom and moving up in weight rather than down. Once Whittaker stopped cutting down to welterweight, things immediately clicked for him as a comparatively faster boxer with much stronger cardio. It quickly became apparent that Whittaker would be a problem for the middleweight division at a high level, and his career blasted into overdrive near the tail end of 2016. A series of quick turnarounds saw him knock out Derek Brunson and Ronaldo Souza before beating Yoel Romero for the UFC’s interim middleweight title. Once Georges St. Pierre retired and vacated the belt, Whittaker was promoted to full-time champion, and the hope was that he’d get to headline one of the UFC’s jaunts down to Australia, where he could return as the conquering hero. However, that never came together, mostly thanks to Whittaker dealing with some major injury issues. His lone successful title defense was a rematch against Romero on American soil, and when Whittaker finally got the final walkout on a card in Melbourne, it came in what mostly felt like a passing of the torch to Israel Adesanya , who knocked him out to become middleweight champion and the new leading man of the region. Whittaker has done well to keep honing his craft in the years since, as he might be the most technically sound fighter in the division, but there is a sense that the cracks are starting to show as he continues to fight an uphill physical battle. He can pick apart most of his opposition, but as he continues to face larger and more powerful opponents, each time he gets hit seems to have potentially dire consequences. Whittaker’s loss to Dricus Du Plessis a shade under a year ago showed that dynamic as starkly as ever. Du Plessis’ form might not be the prettiest, but his combination of power and persistence left Whittaker without much of an answer until a second-round finish. There’s the clear risk that Whittaker suffers a similar fate here, particularly early on. Aliskerov’s a powerhouse who tends to start off hot, often throwing technical form to the side in order to physically overwhelm his opponents. Still, there’s also little to suggest that Aliskerov can hang with Whittaker over the long haul, as this is a huge step up from the Russian’s competition in recent years. The lean is that Whittaker can survive the early going and take this over by the second or third round. The pick is Whittaker via fourth-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims

Heavyweights

#3 HW | Sergei Pavlovich (18-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. #5 HW | Alexander Volkov (37-10, 11-4 UFC)

ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)

With the UFC’s heavyweight title picture in a strange place, a win could wind up as an important result for either Volkov or Pavlovich. Volkov’s recent career renaissance has been a pleasant surprise, though it speaks to how high-level heavyweights tend to have careers that swing wildly between highs and lows. A former Bellator MMA standout, “Drago” came to the UFC after a brief stopover on the regional scene back in 2016, and he made the expectedly quick rise on the ladder. Volkov’s fights might not have been the most dynamic, but the combination of his massive height and high-level durability allowed him to stifle most of his opposition. However, a knockout blow from Derrick Lewis in 2018 halted Volkov’s winning streak, and he has essentially settled into being a gatekeeper to the heavyweight elite during the ensuing years. Volkov has chugged along and worn out opponents through sheer consistency, though there was a stretch where it looked like a long career might finally be catching up with him. A win over Marcin Tybura was a flat performance where neither man impressed, and a sub-four-minute submission loss to Tom Aspinall was absolutely shocking. Whatever the reason for that slump, it’s now in the past, as Volkov has looked as sharp as ever in finishing Jairzinho Rozenstruik , Alexander Romanov and Tai Tuivasa . Volkov was initially slated to face Jailton Almeida a few weeks ago, until the UFC suddenly announced this all-Russian affair against former title contender Sergei Pavlovich —a pairing made all the more interesting by the fact that the two men are training partners.

Pavlovich was also a highly touted signing when the UFC picked him up in 2018, and there were similar expectations that he could quickly rise through the ranks. That didn’t happen immediately, as Pavlovich was thrown right into the fire and quickly finished against Alistair Overeem , but it has been all systems go since then. Up until November, the only thing that could stop Pavlovich was pandemic-related travel issues, as he otherwise knocked out every opponent in his path within a round. Then came an interim title fight against Aspinall, thrown together to help bolster UFC 295. As absurd as it feels to say that Pavlovich had his moments in a 69-second knockout loss, the two did have a fun back-and-forth war for as long as the fight lasted. Pavlovich’s fairly adept at picking his spots while looking to spark a brawl, so this should go off the rails in short order, and it’s unclear what happens from there. Volkov’s durability and his ability to mix things up with his wrestling—despite Pavlovich’s Greco-Roman background, his takedown defense can be a bit spotty—would make this a coinflip even before factoring in that their training history together could show up in some unexpected ways. Pavlovich’s power seems like the safest bet. The pick is Pavlovich via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims

Welterweights

Kelvin Gastelum (18-9, 12-9 UFC) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (17-4, 6-3 UFC)

ODDS: Gastelum (-250), Rodriguez (+205)

Two welterweights look to get back in the win column in what should hopefully be an exciting time. Gastelum lost to Sean Brady in December, but at the very least, his being able to make 170 pounds was somewhat of a victory in itself. Back when Gastelum was one of the top young prospects in the sport, weight management issues forced him up to middleweight even as he fashioned himself a natural welterweight. Once Gastelum was forced up to 185 pounds, he marched his way up the ladder with a series of wins that was hard to parse even in the moment. Gastelum looked athletic and dynamic but seemed to have a knack for catching late-career veterans just as they started to fall off, raising some questions as to exactly how impressive his level of competition was. A nip-tuck loss to Israel Adesanya in the most focused performance of Gastelum’s career seemed to indicate “The Ultimate Fighter 17” winner was in fact an elite fighter, but that wound up kicking off a run of five losses in six fights that brought most of his issues to the forefront. He’s so naturally talented that he can often drift through fights, and as his youthful athleticism has started to fade, that has left him as a somewhat limited fighter whose career has stagnated. After a lost 2022, Gastelum returned for a win against Chris Curtis that saw him finally mix things up and recapture some of the form of his performance against Adesanya. As such, it was somewhat surprising when Gastelum decided to trade in that momentum to try and make another run down at 170 pounds. Gastelum made the weight, but his loss against Brady was a bit disheartening. Brady’s status as a top welterweight is well-deserved, but it was surprising to see him outwrestle Gastelum, whose defensive wrestling was one of his more reliable tools at 185 pounds.

At any rate, wrestling shouldn’t be an issue against Rodriguez, who looks to regain some of the momentum he has lost over the last two years. Rodriguez didn’t earn a contract after a solid but unspectacular win on the Contender Series in 2019, but he got the late-notice call a few months later and made the most of it, scoring a surprising finish over Tim Means . “D-Rod” quietly marched his way up to the welterweight rankings from there with a fairly meat-and-potatoes approach. Rodriguez brings some accurate and powerful boxing to the table and can pump out volume for three rounds with enough wrestling and grappling in his back pocket to keep opponents honest. That made for a fairly clean rise through the division, but he has also hit a clear ceiling now that he has found his way into bigger fights. Neil Magny eventually neutralized him in Neil Magny fashion, and Ian Garry affirmed his uber-prospect status by taking Rodriguez apart with little trouble. This fight should settle into a solid groove early on and maintain things from there, since both fighters tend to favor consistency over creativity. Gastelum’s rarely one to separate himself and score a dominant win, but the fact that he seemingly has Rodriguez beat in most categories—athleticism, power, durability and the ability to pivot to some wrestling, if needed—makes him the clear pick. The pick is Gastelum via decision.

Jump To »
Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims

Featherweights

Muhammadjon Naimov (11-2, 3-0 UFC) vs. Felipe Lima (12-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Naimov (-110), Lima (-110)

Naimov was a sneakily successful signing for the UFC in 2023, helping contribute to a banner year for Tajikistan’s mixed martial arts scene. Naimov initially got his UFC shot in 2020 on the Contender Series, but he put together a lackluster performance that looks like an outlier in retrospect. “Hillman” rebounded nicely and has gone undefeated since getting the late-notice call from the UFC in June 2023. Naimov’s approach is a bit limited, relying on opponents to close range where he can either land big counters or swamp them with a grimy wrestling game, but he has managed to draw some advantageous matchups even while facing a solid level of competition. Jamie Mullarkey didn’t have the durability to stand up to Naimov in close quarters, while Nathaniel Wood was simply outsized. After an opponent change during fight week, Naimov draws a UFC newcomer in Lima.

Lima has proven himself ready for a major promotion after a strong regional campaign, and he looks like a solid talent on film. Fighting behind pressure, the Brazilian can land some dynamic striking techniques before looking to embrace the grind as a fallback. That would make for an interesting fight given some size parity, but Lima is a natural bantamweight—he has even competed at flyweight—making the move up on late notice, so he’ll likely just get swamped here. The pick is Naimov via decision.

Jump To »
Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims

Light Heavyweights

#7 LHW | Johnny Walker (21-8, 7-5 UFC) vs. #9 LHW | Volkan Oezdemir (19-7)

ODDS: Walker (-115), Oezdemir (-105)

A solid booking here helps sort some things out in the light heavyweight rankings, with the winner set up to get back into a big fight. Walker had one of the most impressively hot starts to a UFC career in recent memory, as the Brazilian came out of nowhere to go from newcomer to potential title contender in a manner of months. A gigantic light heavyweight with some unique charisma, Walker came to the UFC as a whirlwind of violence and scored three quick knockouts to instantly become a minor star. After Corey Anderson blew through Walker’s lack of defense, his career was fairly aimless for a few years, thanks to some subpar performances and injury layoffs. Walker now seems to have settled into a new approach that mostly overcompensates for a lot of his old flaws. Rather than try to overwhelm opponents with aggression and fury, Walker has now adopted a patient, range-focused approach, looking to keep his opponents at bay in some slow-paced fights. It’s the type of adjustment that usually just results in fighters coasting to unexciting losses, but while Walker’s pivot has mostly succeeded in sucking the fun out of his fights, it has paid surprising dividends in terms of success. Between Walker’s size, athleticism and the limited nature of a lot of light heavyweights, he has been able to skate by through neutralizing opponents and unleashing some moments of violence when needed. Walker’s occasional losses—namely to Jamahal Hill in 2022 and Magomed Ankalaev in January—show that his newfound approach has a clear ceiling. It takes some work for opponents to break through Walker’s defenses, but the whole thing tends to fall apart once they do, since he seems to lose his composure in the chaos while also having some questionable durability. Walker should still have a high floor at 205 pounds as the division is currently constructed, and he gets a chance to hold serve in the Top 10 against Oezdemir.

Oezdemir’s own hot start to his UFC career was even more impressive than Walker’s. He started 2017 outside of the UFC and racked up three straight wins to end the year as the promotion’s top light heavyweight contender. “No Time” was able to march forward and take advantage of his opponents’ laziness in the clinch, which worked all the way up to the point that he got dominated by then-champion Daniel Cormier . After that loss, Oezdemir then had to go through the process of transitioning from a clear frontrunner to a more consistent fighter. That has mostly paid off. Even though Oezdemir still clearly gets uncomfortable against opponents who provide resistance over time, he has also consistently able to gut through those issues and at least make things tough for his opponents over 15 minutes. As a September win over Bogdan Guskov showed, Oezdemir’s still capable of leveraging a clear advantage into a dominant and one-sided win. Oezdemir’s certainly capable of charging out to a hot start and scoring a quick finish. However, it does seem likely that this eventually settles into a dynamic similar to Walker’s recent wins and Oezdemir’s recent losses. Assuming Walker can land some hard offense early in response to whatever the Swiss striker brings to the table, Oezdemir should consent to a more patient fight that allows the Brazilian to work from distance with minimal resistance. The pick is Walker via decision.

Jump To »
Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims