Tracking the Tropics: How does Saharan dust affect hurricane formation?

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is officially under our belt.

Tropical Storm Alberto was short lived in the Bay of Campeche, but brought flooding rains and storm surge to the western Gulf of Mexico coastline.

Although there have been a couple other areas of interest over the past week, nothing that developed before dissipating.

The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting a tropical wave that just moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are not favorable over the next couple of days, but by the time it gets into the western Caribbean Sea, development is possible.

Although the 7 day chance of development is just at a 20% right now, that chance will likely go up heading toward the end of the week. The next name on the list is Beryl.

The rest of the tropics are quiet, mainly thanks to Saharan dust. Thick dust typically limits tropical development because it is dry air. A thick plume is coming across the Atlantic this week and moving toward the Gulf of Mexico.

This may make for prettier sunrises and sunsets. If the dust is too thick, the sunsets will be quite hazy.

Dust is normal this time of the year and typically tapers off toward the end of July.

Despite the dust, longer range forecast models try to develop a tropical wave toward the end of next week as it moves from Africa toward the Caribbean.

Although there are indications from both the American and the European models of weak development, this is more than a week away and the models are not nearly as reliable, but it will be something to watch over the next week or so.

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