China’s alarming nuclear arsenal

Concerns over China 's nuclear intentions rose recently as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, published a new report finding that the Chinese nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly.

The number of operational nuclear warheads globally is increasing every year, the report found, with the most rapidly increasing stockpile belonging to China. The institute estimated that the size of China's nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024 and is expected to keep growing. For the first time, China may also be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime.

Depending on its military buildup decisions, China could match the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles possessed by Russia or the United States by the end of the decade. Nevertheless, its stockpile of nuclear warheads is anticipated to remain markedly smaller than those of both these countries. The institute predicted the Chinese arsenal of active intercontinental nuclear missiles could grow to match the American and Russian armaments by 2030.

The report also found that China has recently gained the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, something only Russia, France, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. have. This could lead to a rapid escalation in deployed warheads and the potential for nuclear-armed nations to threaten the destruction of a much larger number of targets.

These facts have startling implications for global security.

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China has surged to become the world's fourth-largest arms exporter, closely following the U.S., Russia, and France. Its military influence stretches across Africa and the South China Sea, fueled by efforts to achieve self-reliance in the global arms industry. Over the past five years, China has drastically reduced arms imports by nearly half, replacing foreign weaponry with its own technologies. A recent report from SIPRI underscores this trend, revealing a 44% decline in China's arms imports from 2019 to 2023, dropping it to 10th place among global buyers. This growing autonomy raises alarming concerns amid China's expanding military threats.

We must stop viewing China as a minor player on the global stage. While the U.S. initiated China's integration into the global economy during the Nixon administration, today's China is vastly different. Despite a slower economic growth rate compared to previous years, China is advancing both economically and militarily. It should be treated with caution and respect as such.