Little less hot, little more stormy. Details on timing of storms

NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — It’s HOT! Thankfully, compared to this time last year, spotty to scattered rain chances have remained a consistent daily theme!

While rain can be a nuisance, the daily rainfall helps put a cap on afternoon high temperatures. It’s also incredibly beneficial for trees, plants, crops & wildlife.

Rain chances look to increase late Wednesday-Thursday, and potentially a second surge of higher rain chances by late weekend.

There is a localized heavy rain risk on Thursday(Level 1 out of 5) from the Weather Prediction Center. This added rain will also keep temperatures a bit more seasonal in the lower 90s.

In the tropics…

National Hurricane Center continues to give #Invest94L a low, 20% chance of tropical formation in the Western Caribbean & Southern Gulf through the weekend into early next week. Next name on the list is #Beryl .

In addition, rumblings from long-range model guidance about the potential for the African wave train & “Cabo Verde” season waking up earlier than normal this year.

No tropical threats in the near term for the Northern Gulf Coast.

First: The disturbance in the Caribbean may see gradual development by Friday-Saturday as it nears the Yucatan/Belize as environmental conditions appear generally favorable. High pressure looks to steer this feature well south of the Northern Gulf Coast.

With record warm water temperatures in the East-Central Atlantic, model guidance continues to insist that a few tropical waves may gain a bit more interest in 5+ days.

Quite a signal in late June for potential tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles from the Euro Ensembles(shown below.) While quite bullish, there is credence to the potential given other model support(GFS & Canadian) along with anomalously hot water temps. Water feels more like August in the ‘MDR’ (Main Development Region) of the basin.

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