As Gershkovich's trial begins, a look at the chances of a U.S.-Russia prisoner swap

For the first time since the Cold War, a journalist has gone on trial in Russia for espionage. The Wall Street Journal’s Evan Gershkovich appeared in court accused of working on behalf of the CIA. The White House calls the trial a sham and the charges against Gershkovich fiction. Nick Schifrin discussed more with Angela Stent, author of “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest.”

Read the Full Transcript

Amna Nawaz: For the first time since the Cold War, a journalist has gone on trial in Russia for espionage.

The Wall Street Journal’s Evan Gershkovich appeared in court today, accused of working on behalf of the CIA.

Nick Schifrin is here now with that story — Nick.

Nick Schifrin: Amna, the White House calls the trial a — quote — “sham” and the charges against Gershkovich fiction. The U.S. classifies him as wrongfully detained, but he will now be tried on charges with a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.

In a Russian court 900 miles from Moscow, padlocked into a glass box, Evan Gershkovich managed today to flash a smile. And yet the 32-year-old American journalist is a prisoner of Putin’s penal system, where conviction rates are 99 percent.

Today’s hearing lasted two hours and brought Gershkovich back to Yekaterinburg, where last March police arrested him on a reporting trip. He is the first American reporter accused of espionage in nearly 30 years.

Mikael Ozdoyev, Russian Prosecutor (through interpreter): The investigation has established and documented that the American journalist on orders of the CIA collected secret information about the activities of a defense enterprise.

Nick Schifrin: The U.S. and Wall Street Journal deny that, and today The Journal called the trial — quote — “shameful and illegitimate. Evan is a journalist who is accredited by the Russian government, and journalism is not a crime.”

But the U.S. believes Gershkovich’s trial and anticipated conviction could help facilitate a prisoner swap, a possibility that Putin confirmed earlier this month to international journalists.

Vladimir Putin, Russian President (through interpreter): Such issues are not decided via mass media. They prefer a discreet, calm and professional approach and dialogue between special services. And they certainly should be decided only on the basis of reciprocity.

Nick Schifrin: Americans believe that means two for two or one for one, as it went in 2022, WNBA star Brittney Griner in exchange for a notorious Russian arms dealer, Viktor Bout.

Several Americans remain in Russian custody, Paul Whelan, also convicted of espionage and also labeled wrongfully detained, active-duty Staff Sergeant Gordon Black convicted of theft and threatening his Russian girlfriend. There are also dual nationals, Alsu Kurmasheva, a reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, accused of violating a foreign agent law, and Ksenia Karelina, accused of treason for donating $51 to Ukraine.

Today, the U.S. State Department said they’re working privately to bring Gershkovich and others home.

Matthew Miller, State Department Spokesman: We will continue our efforts. Those have been happening before Evan’s trial. They will continue during the trial. And should he be convicted, which, of course, he will be — it’s not a free trial — they will continue after the trial, but we want to see him return home immediately.

Nick Schifrin: So what does today’s trial say about Russia and the possibilities of a prisoner swap?

For that, we turn to Angela Stent, who worked in the State Department during the Clinton administration and served as a top U.S. intelligence officer on Russia during the George W. Bush administration. She’s now with the Brookings Institution and author of “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest.”

Angela Stent, thanks very much. Welcome back to the “NewsHour.”

Angela Stent, Brookings Institution: Good to be here.

Nick Schifrin: U.S. officials and The Wall Street Journal both today called the trial a sham and illegitimate. Is that how you see it?

Angela Stent: Oh, yes. It’s a travesty. It’s not a trial. They already know what the verdict is going to be. They know what the sentence is going to be.

And Evan Gershkovich is a fine, talented journalist. He was writing some excellent stuff on the wartime economy. He was accredited in Russia. And when he went to Yekaterinburg to go to this factory and see how they were replenishing their tanks, that’s when they arrested him.

So it really is a sham, as the government has said.

Nick Schifrin: The White House also called him a bargaining chip.

Are a trial and the expected conviction the requirements almost to begin the process of possibly having a prisoner swap that would release him?

Angela Stent: They definitely are. And Putin has said as much. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has said that. So we don’t know how long the trial will take. The next hearing is until August the 13th.

Since everything is completely secret, we won’t know anything about the proceedings. And once it’s over and once they announce that he’s been sentenced, presumably to 20 years, then I think they will talk more seriously about exchanging him.

I mean, this really is completely a political arrest. And it’s a hostage negotiation.

Nick Schifrin: The trial is opaque, as you point out. But, also, the hostage negotiations are opaque.

But we do have one name that has emerged from Russian officials to American officials. And that is Vadim Krasikov, believed to be a Russian intelligence officer convicted in Germany of murdering a Chechen who had fought Russian soldiers.

We don’t know for sure, but is there either one-for-one deal or a two-for-two deal that would include Paul Whelan somewhere out there on the table?

Angela Stent: So, Putin a few months ago gave us a hint that that was on the cards. But this was when Alexei Navalny was alive. And then he died. And then Putin said there would have been an exchange for Navalny and Evan Gershkovich for this FSB assassin, Vadim Krasikov.

Now that Navalny’s dead, the question is, what happens? The Germans really wanted Navalny. They would have to give up Krasikov because he’s sitting in a jail in Berlin. But I do understand that there are negotiations going on. And, hopefully, Paul Whelan will be part of them now too.

Nick Schifrin: That word reciprocity that we heard Putin use earlier, that is what U.S. officials believe is either a one-for-one or two-for-two. Is that how you see that word?

Angela Stent: Yes, that’s how I see that.

Unfortunately, I think the other two people who were mentioned in your story, they’re not part of that negotiation at the moment.

Nick Schifrin: Dual nationals.

Angela Stent: Dual nationals.

Nick Schifrin: U.S. officials tell me that Russia treats the dual nationals differently.

Angela Stent: Oh, yes, and it wants to punish them for going to the United States and getting American citizenship too.

Nick Schifrin: In terms of other possible Russian intelligence officials or anyone at least accused of espionage, as Whelan and Gershkovich mostly are, a senior State Department official recently told us about a full spectrum of hybrid activities and subversion campaigns across Europe and highlighted some arrests that have recently been publicized.

Czech authorities charged a man with terrorism for allegedly trying to set buses on fire on behalf of Russia. The U.K. recently expelled a military attache after an arson attack. German officials are talking about another possible arson attack by Russians.

Are these the kinds of people that the U.S. and European allies would be looking to detain in order to possibly have a trade for people like Gershkovich?

Angela Stent: Well, first of all, the U.S. and the Europeans don’t detain people just to exchange them, right? I mean, these people carried out these acts.

It’s possible. It gets very complicated when other countries are involved. With Brittney Griner, we were just talking about someone, Viktor Bout, who was in the U.S. It doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen, but that would make it much more complicated than that. Then how would you choose which one to exchange?

As far as we know, there’s no one in the U.S., Russian, in jail that’s of high enough value that the Russians would be willing to trade Evan Gershkovich for him.

Nick Schifrin: What do these activities in Europe say about what Putin and Russia are doing in Europe?

Angela Stent: Putin thinks that he’s at war with the West. He’s determined to win this war with Ukraine. And they’re really upping all of these sabotage activities. We know that there’s election interference going on in Europe, in the United States, as we speak.

They had a deepfake video of the State Department spokesman the other day saying things. So they’re really — he — I think Putin is more confident than he was before, and he is determined to do anything he can to wreak havoc in Europe or the United States.

Nick Schifrin: We saw obviously the peak of Russian interference in the U.S. election in 2016. U.S. officials say the interference in 2020, 2022 was lower.

What do you anticipate this year?

Angela Stent: I think it will probably be lower than it was in 2016, but I think it’s still going on. I mean, the use of social media and things like that is — as we speak is going on, and then supporting different groups against each other.

What the Russians want is chaos in the United States and Europe, and that’s what they’re promoting.

Nick Schifrin: Very briefly, Angela Stent, while I have you, Putin has done something that we haven’t seen him do in the past, and that is appoint a number of relatives to high jobs in the Russian government.

Why?

Angela Stent: So this is, I think, part of an elaborate succession plan. I’m not saying that Putin’s going to step aside any time soon, but his first cousin once removed, she was just made deputy defense minister. The sons of various close colleagues of Putin have been promoted to high positions in the Kremlin, in the government.

So they’re setting the stage for the next generation to take over at some point, but people who share their views and want to continue the system. And it’s also a way, I think, for Putin to ensure that nothing will happen to his family when he’s not in the Kremlin anymore.

Nick Schifrin: Something, of course, that he guaranteed to Yeltsin when he took over.

Angela Stent: Of course he did, yes.

Nick Schifrin: Angela Stent, always a pleasure. Thanks very much.

Angela Stent: Thank you.