EXCLUSIVE — Polling from five battleground states suggests former President Donald Trump has kept his edge over President Joe Biden before their first debate of the 2024 election cycle , including Georgia , the state hosting their potentially only head-to-head matchup before November.
Polling conducted by Republican polling shop P2 Insights for conservative nonprofit organization Building America’s Future from June 11-20, found Trump has extended his lead over Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin since May and his conviction in his New York hush money trial.
The polls, which surveyed 650 likely general election voters in each state by cellphone, landline, and text to web and asked respondents about independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. , also found Trump remained ahead of Biden in Michigan but by a smaller margin compared to last month.
• Arizona — Trump 47%, Biden 36%, Kennedy 7% in June; Trump 41%, Biden 38%, Kennedy 9% in May
• Georgia — Trump 45%, Biden 35%, Kennedy 6% in June; Trump 43%, Biden 39%, Kennedy 7% in May
• Michigan — Trump 43%, Biden 40%, Kennedy 8% in June; Trump 45%, Biden 37%, Kennedy 7% in May
• Nevada — Trump 40%, Biden 37%, Kennedy 8% in June; Trump 41%, Biden 40%, Kennedy 9% in May
• Wisconsin — Trump 45%, Biden 42%, Kennedy 4% in June; Trump 44%, Biden 42%, Kennedy 7% in May
"After enduring wall-to-wall negative coverage of his historic trial and tens of millions in negative attack ads from the Biden campaign in recent weeks, Donald Trump still leads in five key battleground states across the country," P2 Insights partner Ryan Tyson wrote in a Wednesday memo obtained by the Washington Examiner.
"Joe Biden heads into the first debate in a difficult position because he is struggling to recreate the coalition that produced his victory in 2020," Tyson said. "In fact, Biden is losing more of his 2020 voters than Trump."
Arizona and Nevada are the most notable states in which voters who supported Biden in 2020 told pollsters they would now cast a ballot for Trump at 6% and 5%, respectively.
About three-fifths of all polled battleground voters considered Biden "too old" to be president and that he would not be able to "handle" another four-year administration, with approximately one-third of those respondents voting for Biden in 2020.
• Arizona — 63% of all likely voters agree Biden is "too old," 34% disagree; 29% of 2020 Biden voters agree, 66% disagree
• Georgia — 60% of all likely voters agree, 36% disagree; 31% of 2020 Biden voters agree, 63% disagree
• Michigan — 64% of all likely voters agree, 31% disagree; 34% of 2020 Biden voters agree, 61% disagree
• Nevada — 61% of all likely voters agree, 34% disagree; 32% of 2020 Biden voters agree, 64% disagree
• Wisconsin — 58% of all likely voters agree, 36% disagree; 31% of 2020 Biden voters agree, 63% disagree
"Trump’s greatest advantage in this race remains that he is more trusted to handle the economy than Biden," Tyson wrote. "Even people who dislike Trump agree with that argument. Positive perception of Trump’s economy outperforms his baseline image by roughly 10 percentage points in every swing state. That has been true before and after his criminal trial."
"With his standing declining in almost every key battleground state, Joe Biden is in desperate need of a moment in Thursday night’s debate to turn his campaign around," he added. "The problem for the incumbent is there may be too many things to fix in just one night."
These numbers are within the range of other public polls taken in the presidential race.
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Trump has an average 3.2 percentage point lead over Biden in Arizona , a 5-point one in Georgia , and a 3.2 point one in Nevada , according to FiveThirtyEight. Biden has a 0.2-point advantage over Trump in Michigan and a 0.3-point one in Wisconsin , per the same polling aggregator.
All five of P2 Insights' June polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
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