Today's MLB schedule serves up quite a few big bats worth wagering consideration in the home run prop betting market.
The first pitch of the day is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET (Twins vs. Diamondbacks), and a Minnesota slugger is among our HR prop bets today.
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HR prop bets to consider on MLB's Thursday, June 27 slate
The prop bets below all offer odds of +440 or higher, according to odds at time of publication.
Ryan Jeffers to hit a home run
Although his batting average is down this year, Jeffers is on track for a career-high in home runs this season. He's hit 14 dingers twice in his career, and he is already sitting at 13. He hit his first home run in June just yesterday and faces Arizona's Jordan Montgomery today.
Montgomery has surrendered a home run in three of his four starts this month, and in six total at-bats, Jeffers is hitting .500 against him. Montgomery’s primary pitch is the sinker, which he uses at a 34% clip. Given their history and his ability to at least locate Montgomery’s primary pitch, we like Jeffers’ odds to go yard tonight.
Bryce Harper to hit a home run
The Phillies own the best record in baseball, and Harper’s bat is a major reason why. He is batting .305 and has 20 home runs this season, tied for seventh in the league. He is seeing the ball well and has hit five homers over his last seven games.
Trevor Rogers is expected to take the mound for the Marlins on Thursday. In 17 at-bats, Rogers has held Harper to no home runs, a .235 batting average, and struck him out eight times. However, Harper is as hot as they come, and he is racking every pitch Rogers has in his arsenal this season. Rodgers uses four pitches pretty heavily, which makes him tough on hitters.
His four-seamer and change-up are the only two that exceed the league’s strikeout average for the pitch types. Harper’s averages are .290 and .310 against the pitches, respectively. Look for the slugger to go deep tonight.
Adley Rutschman to hit a home run
One of the best hitters in the game, Rutschman’s odds tonight offer great value. He's priced long because he hasn’t hit one in nine games. Thursday’s matchup, however, presents a great opportunity to end his dry streak, thanks to Jon Gray taking the mound for the Rangers. In six career at-bats against Gray, Rutschman has two walks and four hits, including one home run.
We like Rutschman’s odds even more after evaluating Gray’s pitch selection. He uses the slider and four-seamer at 45% and 43% clips, respectively. Hitters are batting .211 against the slider and .283 against the four-seamer. Meanwhile, Rutschman is averaging .297 against the slider and .370 against the four-seamer. Given their matchup history and Rutschman’s ability to his Gray’s two-pitch selection, this wager is one of the best on the market tonight.
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