Tropical storm could form in Caribbean over next few days, hurricane center says

A system in the deep Atlantic has a growing chance of strengthening into a named storm over the weekend in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said.

The center has rapidly increased its prediction for when the tropical wave might strengthen. As of Thursday morning, it had a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days, up from 30% the morning before. The center also increased its shot of strengthening in the next two days to 40%.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and development of this system is anticipated,” forecasters wrote.

The increasing confidence is likely due to growing agreement within the array of global weather models forecasters use to help predict when and where storms will form.

Although it’s too early to know the eventual destination of this system, which would be Tropical Storm Beryl, forecasters warned that residents of the Windward Islands should prepare for a potential storm this weekend.

“Keep an eye on it,” Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel posted on X.

Wednesday evening, the hurricane center noted that conditions were unusually good for storm formation in the area.

While most of the main development region of the Atlantic is swathed in storm-dampening Saharan dust this week, the tropical wave in question is swirling in a pocket that doesn’t have much of that hot, dry dust.

It’s also floating in some abnormally warm water, as sea surface temperatures in the area are running at September-level temperatures in June. Hot water is fuel for storms, which is why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted this storm season could potentially be the most active on record.

But while conditions appear to be ripe for this wave to strengthen into Tropical Storm Beryl over the weekend, where it goes from there is up in the air.

“Way too early to know the ultimate destination of this system; it all depends on how the upper air pattern evolves in 7-10 days,” wrote James Spann, a meteorologist with Alabama’s ABC 33 40, on X. “Model spread is anywhere from Central America to the Bahamas; we will have much better clarity early next week.”

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