Preview: UFC 303 ‘Pereira vs. Prochazka 2’

International Fight Week has arrived, and UFC 303 drives home a dynamic that has developed in recent years. Much of the time, it pays off to be available. After the slated marquee attraction between Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler fell through, the Ultimate Fighting Championship scrambled to put together a new card, and the result is three top fights between six fighters who were not booked for this date three weeks ago. Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka run back their light heavyweight title fight from October in the main event; Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes square off in what should be an entertaining featherweight co-headliner; and a light heavyweight showcase that has seen multiple changes has seemingly landed on Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze . Add in a fascinating clash between Ian Garry and Michael Page that could create a new welterweight contender, and it is an impressive save from the UFC to put together a strong main draw.

Now to the UFC 303 “Pereira vs. Prochazka” preview:

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

#4 P4P | Alex Pereira (10-2, 7-1 UFC) vs. #1 LHW | Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Pereira (-155), Prochazka (+130)

Pereira signing with the UFC in 2021 seemed like a short-term curiosity, but it pays off in amazing fashion once again, as “Poatan”—now clearly a championship-level mixed martial artist—steps in on short notice to save a high-profile card for the second time this year. An elite kickboxer, Pereira had dabbled in mixed martial arts at points before stepping into the Octagon, but once he was in the UFC, it came with a fairly clear and limited purpose. He had a built-in rivalry with then-champion Israel Adesanya from their kickboxing days, as Pereira had won both of their previous fights. Given the seemingly one-note nature of Pereira’s mixed martial arts game, the UFC needed to thread the needle in terms of matchmaking to get the Brazilian to championship contention. It managed to do so within a year, aided by Sean Strickland ’s decision to strike with Pereira and quickly get knocked out, giving the Brazilian a credible high-level victory. Amusingly, Pereira’s first title fight against Adesanya went much the same as their kickboxing fights. Adesanya probably proved himself to be the better fighter in the aggregate, but Pereira walked away with the victory, in this case thanks to a come-from-behind knockout in the final round. The most money for everyone involved was in an immediate rematch, which took place six months later, at which point Adesanya finally scored his revenge to put an end to their rivalry for the time being while allowing everyone to move on. In Pereira’s case, it allowed him to finally stop making a massive weight cut and move up to 205 pounds. There was some intrigue as to how Pereira would fare in somewhat deeper waters at light heavyweight, but it took the Brazilian all of two fights in a matter of months to become champion of a second division. Pereira’s wrestling and grappling was just passable enough to skate by against Jan Blachowicz , but a knockout of Prochazka to win the then-vacant light heavyweight title was much more definitive. Meanwhile, 2024 has seen Pereira continually save the UFC’s proverbial bacon, starting with his headlining spot opposite Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 in April. The fight was slated for May until the UFC struggled to come up with a viable headliner for its biggest card of the year. It took Pereira all of three minutes and change to feel Hill out and obliterate him for the knockout, which left him fresh enough to do the UFC a favor once again after the company found itself without a main event. A title rematch against Prochazka was apparently scheduled for August, but the two instead lock horns here.

The UFC’s light heavyweight title picture struggled to find some stability after Jon Jones left the division in 2020, but it seemed like Prochazka might be the man to carry the division into the future. An athletic wildman who proved himself as a knockout artist in Japan, the Czech fighter made his UFC debut in 2020 and lived up to the hype in every way possible. Beyond a personality centered around an obsession with the Bushido code that manifests itself in unorthodox ways, Prochazka’s UFC fights have each been entertaining adventures. There’s almost no defense built into Prochazka’s approach, as he relies on his size, athleticism and vision to avoid things as they come—and hopefully return fire with something wild that can knock the opponent out. The former part of that equation rarely works out, as Prochazka mostly just eats whatever comes his way, but he’s so offensively potent that it usually doesn’t matter. His first three UFC fights, all wins, were a come-from-behind knockout of Volkan Oezdemir , a finish of Dominick Reyes in a fight that both men nearly won and one of the wildest back-and-forth title fights in recent memory against Glover Teixeira . Prochazka was forced to vacate the title—and miss a year—after a major shoulder injury suffered while training for a Teixeira rematch, but he picked up right where he left off in his attempt to win the championship back against Pereira. Only this time, Pereira proved to be the rare fighter with enough to knock Prochazka out. Prochazka caused some discomfort for Pereira, but the Brazilian managed to return that favor in kind, mostly on the back of some brutal leg kicks that slowly took away the former champion’s options before setting up the knockout. Prochazka’s lone fight since then—a win over Aleksandar Rakic on the same UFC 300 card that saw Pereira beat Hill—unsurprisingly suggests that he hasn’t learned much from the experience. Rakic mostly kicked Prochazka’s legs at will and had the fight in hand until “BJP” stormed back for a wild comeback and finish. Given that, Pereira essentially has to be the pick. Prochazka might be the more durable fighter in what figures to be another race to a knockout, and he’s always dangerous, but everything is laid out for Pereira to once again deconstruct him and score a finish in a similar fashion. The pick is Pereira via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims

Featherweights

#14 FW | Diego Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC) vs. #3 FW | Brian Ortega (16-3, 8-3 UFC)

ODDS: Lopes (-135), Ortega (+114)

The big theme of this reshuffled UFC 303 card is that it pays to be available, and Lopes has cashed in on that in a big way. A Brazilian by birth who has placed roots in Mexico, Lopes was on the verge of a UFC callup for years before finally getting the call in May 2023. The bad news? His debut came in what seemed to be an unwinnable matchup against Movsar Evloev . Even if the fight did end in a clear decision win for Evloev, Lopes made himself known with his performance. An aggressive go-everywhere fighter, Lopes clamped on submission attempt after submission attempt to give Evloev one of the toughest fights of his UFC career. Lopes has never read as a high-ceiling fighter thanks to his aggressive kill-or-be-killed style sometimes working against him, but he has captured lightning in a bottle since the loss to Evloev. He has swarmed Gavin Tucker , Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff within the last year to earn a spot in the UFC’s featherweight rankings and gained enough profile to get a huge opportunity against Ortega.

Ortega’s initial rise through the featherweight ranks was an impressive magic trick of sorts. One of the most potent grapplers in the sport, Ortega had a knack for snatching victory from the hands of defeat with a submission, to the point that he probably didn’t win a round in his six wins prior to his 2018 title shot against Max Holloway . That was where Ortega’s luck finally ran out, as Holloway outclassed him on the feet with little effort. The next five years and change have been particularly inconsistent for “T-City.” Injuries delayed Ortega’s rebound from the Holloway loss to the point that he looked completely unrecognizable in a win over Chan Sung Jung two years later. Beyond having shaved off his signature locks, Ortega got the win on the back of a newly developed striking game. That led Ortega to another title shot, this time against Alexander Volkanovski in a fight where Ortega nearly scored the win with a guillotine choke but accomplished little else. When his next fight against Yair Rodriguez ended in an injury loss, Ortega once again became a forgotten man. After another two-year layoff, Ortega returned for a rematch against Rodriguez that was part disaster and part impressively gritty performance. Ortega rolled his ankle warming up during the fighter introductions, nearly got knocked out in the opening moments and then somehow gutted through things to score a third-round submission in an ugly grind of a fight. It’s a strange one-fight sample for Ortega’s past two years, but it does at least serve as a reminder that he’s one of the toughest outs in the business. That’s really the bet here, as it seems likely that Lopes’ swarming style will get Ortega in trouble early, but it’s hard to imagine the Brazilian finishing the job. It has taken either an injury or a 20-minute beating to finish Ortega in the past, and most of Lopes’ offense figures to lead him into grappling with the Californian, which has never been a winning proposition. This should be entertainingly chaotic, as is true of most Lopes fights. The pick is Ortega via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims

Light Heavyweights

#10 MW | Roman Dolidze (12-3, 6-3 UFC) vs. #10 LHW | Anthony Smith (38-19, 13-9 UFC)

ODDS: Dolidze (-142), Smith (+120)

Constant availability is at a premium in the 2024 version of the UFC, so as long as Smith keeps winning, good things should keep happening for “Lionheart.” A solid if unspectacular middleweight for most of his professional career, Smith moved up to light heavyweight in 2018 and shot up the ladder immediately, in part thanks to his willingness to keep stepping in and taking fights. He finished Rashad Evans , Mauricio Rua and Volkan Oezdemir within a span of about five months, heading into 2019 as Jon Jones ’ top contender for the belt at 205 pounds. After an unsuccessful title challenge, Smith has stuck around somewhere between the Top 5 and Top 10 of the UFC’s light heavyweight ranks, owing to a mentality that has a lot of bend but little in terms of break. Smith’s experience means he can hold his own just about anywhere, but he fights with a ton of emotion, so things tends to look dire up until the point that he can steel himself and stage an anger-fueled comeback. There are still one-sided fights for Smith, however, as elite-level opponents can usually lean on one or two skills to freeze him out of a fight. Then there are bouts like his May win over a raw prospect in Vitor Petrino , who immediately charged into a Smith guillotine choke. That left Smith available to step in for a fight that has seen a ton of changes. He replaces Jamahal Hill , who was set to face Carlos Ulberg , who was replacing Khalil Rountree . With Ulberg now out, Dolidze moves back up from middleweight on about two weeks’ notice.

Dolidze kicked off his UFC career with two wins at light heavyweight back in 2020, but it was unclear how the Georgian’s style would work going forward. He obviously had plenty of horsepower but fought with an aimless approach that would mostly just pull low-percentage techniques out of mid-air until something connected for a finish. Despite his success at 205 pounds, Dolidze moved down to middleweight and briefly reinvented himself as a low-output grinder before settling into his previous groove. Dolidze still doesn’t present much pace, but nearly everything he does has some level of danger. That marched Dolidze into the middleweight Top 10 with a surprising lack of difficulty, but he has been somewhat aimless since a win over Jack Hermansson to cap off 2022. Injuries to opponents have left him with long stretches in between fights, and he has now suffered two straight losses after Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov were able to match his physicality. Smith’s durability isn’t elite, so there’s a chance for Dolidze to end this with one risky maneuver. However, Smith is another fighter who can match Dolidze in size and power while having a much more functional game. The pick is Smith via decision.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims

Women’s Bantamweights

#3 WBW | Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1, 5-3-1 UFC) vs. #7 WBW | Macy Chiasson (9-3, 7-3 UFC)

ODDS: Bueno Silva (-115), Chiasson (-105)

The top of the UFC’s women’s bantamweight division is still a bit of a mess after the retirement of Amanda Nunes , so this could wind up as an important fight depending on how things shake out. Bueno Silva just challenged for the vacant belt in what was the culmination of a surprisingly successful move up to 135 pounds for “Sheetara.” The Brazilian had hit a clear ceiling at flyweight, as her vicious grappling game was limited somewhat by her plodding striking attack. At bantamweight, Bueno Silva was no longer a subpar athlete and could take advantage of her opponents’ more limited games. A second-round submission against Holly Holm seemingly confirmed that Bueno Silva would be a problem for anyone in the division, so she was a worthy entrant when the UFC decided to match her against Raquel Pennington to crown a new champion. Bueno Silva got off to a solid enough start but surprisingly gassed out after about a round and a half of action, attempting unsuccessfully to turn things around for the next three and a half rounds. It was a showing that makes it difficult to see Bueno Silva getting a title rematch in the short term but also doesn’t say much about her ability to take apart the rank and file of the division. She’ll look to rebound against Chiasson, who seems to be the eternal dark horse of the weight class, remaining a high-upside talent while never gaining much momentum.

Chiasson looked like an absolute terror in running through the competition on a featherweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2018, and that figured to carry down to 135 pounds. However, it has been a mixed bag, even beyond Chiasson’s struggles to actually make the weight limit. She has a gigantic frame for the division and can often overwhelm her opponents in close quarters, but her lack of core strength just as often gets her overpowered by some of the more thickly-built women at 135 and 145 pounds. It’s unclear what side of that equation Bueno Silva falls on, but even if Chiasson gets her type of fight, the issue is that she’ll be closing in on and locking horns with a talented grappler who can easily find a finish, between the American’s long limbs and often suspect submission defense. The pick is Bueno Silva via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims

Welterweights

#7 WW | Ian Garry (14-0, 7-0 UFC) vs. #14 WW | Michael Page (22-2, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Garry (-135), Page (+114)

There are plenty of narratives around Garry, mostly concerning his life outside of the cage, but it seems to be a bit lost that he’s one of the best young fighters to come around in a while. The Irishman had already outgrown the regional scene by the time the UFC picked him up at 23 years old. A standout athlete with a long frame, knockout power and a solid wrestling game, “The Future” had already proven everything there was to prove. It was a fairly quick rise from there. While Garry had some moments of adversity—mostly in the form of opponents being able to clip him thanks to his upright striking stance—he’d always recover nicely and showed an excellent ability to both game plan for and adapt to his opponents, most notably calling his shot ahead of time with a first-round head kick knockout of Daniel Rodriguez . After a workmanlike win over Neil Magny —it wasn’t particularly exciting but saw Garry do what he needed to do to stay out of trouble—his February victory over Geoff Neal was the first time that it felt like he underperformed due to expectations. Neal is a limited but dangerous headhunter, and that power seemingly cowed Garry into a surprisingly tentative performance, allowing the Fortis MMA rep to find enough moments to even win one of the scorecards. In the face of that showing, this next fight against Page is a fascinating pairing that gives Garry the chance to prove he has learned from the experience.

Page will probably settle in as a fascinating curio, but for the time being, the UFC is fully in the business of seeing if the former Bellator standout can quickly become a title contender. Page’s matchmaking in Bellator was the subject of derision for years. A flashy and dynamic striker with little else to back that up from a mixed martial arts standpoint, Page consistently got a soft touch that allowed him to keep adding to his highlight reel. When the promotion finally pulled the trigger on Page as a contender, he proved worthy of hanging at that level. His fights could be messy and a split decision loss to Logan Storley saw him get controlled, but the whole package was viable enough that he was a credible fighter heading into free agency. His UFC debut against Kevin Holland in March saw him win the expectedly bizarre mess that ensued, and this could be another style clash. It’s easy to see Garry staying at range if his tentativeness against Neal is any sort of indication, and Page will be just as content to wait out his opportunities. Page landing a knockout blow wouldn’t be a shock, but the safer bet seems to be Garry’s strategizing and adaptability cracking open the challenge that “Venom” presents, even if he’ll likely have to take the fight out of the fight to do so. The pick is Garry via decision.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims