Justin Trudeau is in trouble

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ’s future is in question after his Liberal Party suffered an embarrassing loss of a safe seat in a recent special election.

The opposition Conservative Party secured a victory in the Toronto-St Paul’s constituency for the first time in more than three decades. This was also the first time a Conservative candidate managed to win anywhere in Toronto, a Liberal stronghold, since 2011.

This was an unexpected blow to Trudeau, who said, “This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations.” In contrast, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre celebrated the win as a “shocking upset” and argued that “Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now.”

The Liberal Party has been struggling for a while, as it has trailed the Conservatives in the polls by double digits for almost a year. Trudeau has downplayed the bad numbers because, “What you tell a pollster, if they ever manage to reach you, is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign.”

The date for the next Canadian election has not yet been set, but must occur on or before Oct. 20, 2025. The last federal election was held in 2021, which was a snap election called by Trudeau in order to capitalize on polling that favored the Liberals.

While an early election is unlikely to occur, Trudeau has another option: resign from Liberal Party leadership, and therefore, the prime ministership, to give the party a new face before the next election. Trudeau does not plan on doing this, but he is facing some pressure from within his party to explore the possibility.

Conservative political commentator J.J. McCullough heavily criticized this prospect in a post on X , saying, “It cheapens the prime ministership for a PM to opportunistically resign in order to gamble on improving his party’s chances in a looming election.” He said in a follow-up, “I don’t want a new, unelected Liberal prime minister, I want a chance to vote on the Liberal record.”

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As much as Trudeau’s incompetence has contributed to his party’s lackluster momentum, the success of Poilievre in reshaping the Conservative Party is helping the Canadian Right. He has fine-tuned his pitch to four main points , “axe the [carbon] tax, build the homes, fix the budget, and stop the crime.” Beyond specific policy points, Poilievre is rhetorically effective and has been praised for his handling of reporters and attacks from the Left. Moreover, Liberal Party attempts to liken Poilievre to former President Donald Trump have either fallen flat or bolstered Poilievre’s support.

While Trudeau still has more than a year to stage a potential comeback, his demise looks much more likely. As well deserved as his political downfall is, Poilievre's ascension is even more well deserved.