Haley voters are key to debate win

The general election polls show former President Donald Trump with a small lead over President Joe Biden before the first presidential debate . The key to winning this debate will be which candidate can pull in the Nikki Haley voters who have remained without a candidate since she suspended her campaign in March.

Haley voters are historically moderate Republicans who are a mix of college-educated and independent voters who could help swing the election. The candidates tonight will have to speak to voters like Emily Roberson of Raleigh, North Carolina. She said she believed Haley was speaking to the feelings of many voters. “I think she represents best what a lot of us are feeling, kind of left out of both sides of the equation, whether you are more liberal or more conservative,” Roberson told NPR . “I just think she speaks to the ‘missing middle.’”

Her voters turned out in large numbers in Republican primaries across the nation, and they kept turning out even after Haley suspended her campaign in early March. Many said they were seeking an alternative to Trump or Biden. Those voters are still searching for who will best represent them.

Trump denounced Nikki Haley on his Truth Social account earlier this year, warning that anyone who supported her campaign would be “permanently barred from the MAGA camp.” Yet many Haley voters are also reluctant to support Biden. Haley herself calls out Biden on X nearly every other day.

Tonight, Trump and Biden will engage in a strategic battle to win over these crucial voters. Each candidate faces distinct challenges in securing the support necessary for victory. Trump aims to broaden his base and appeal to undecided voters with promises of economic revitalization and law and order. Meanwhile, Biden has to focus on answering for the rise in illegal immigration and his lack of a plan to promote economic recovery. He is aiming to solidify unknown voters into his coalition around these key issues. Both contenders must navigate these tasks adeptly to sway the electorate in their favor.

Trump will have to prove that the arms of the Republican Party are willing to embrace more than the Trump fandom/the deeply populist nature of the party. It will have to prove that establishment Republicans still have a place in today’s party. Haley was supported by centrists like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and former Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman. These are perfect examples of much of the electorate that supported Haley because they represent the old-school “get the job done” rhetoric that the Republican Party used to.

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Biden will have to prove that he has a plan to handle the economic issues facing our country — the issues that hit everyday people. He also has to find a way to productively talk about immigration. His current executive action limits the number of migrants that would be allowed to claim asylum at the southern border. The action immediately sends them back to their country of origin to wait until the daily average — 2,500 — goes down, and, once it goes down, they would be able to claim asylum. Many find this to be a compromise, considering Congress cannot pass an immigration deal. However, others see this action as “too little, too late” on behalf of the administration.

Haley voters can swing this election. Tonight will be the first test on how they can find their political home. Will either candidate successfully pitch themselves as able to fill the moderate void that Haley left behind when she left the race? Either way, this debate will be a fascinating watch.