Hurricane in the Caribbean by early next week? It’s possible

Jeff Berardelli is WFLA’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — As of Thursday afternoon, a vigorous tropical wave, Invest 95L, in the middle of the deep Tropical Atlantic – about 3200 miles southeast of Florida – has a very high chance of development, according to the National Hurricane Center.

While there’s no indication at this time that Florida may be impacted, many of our computer models show a strong signal that it will become not only the next named storm of the season but perhaps strong enough to attain hurricane strength as it moves over the Lesser Antilles.

The system could get a name (Beryl) by Friday or over the weekend. If it becomes a hurricane, it would be very rare company, perhaps even the furthest east in the deep Tropical Atlantic that a hurricane has formed in June. The average first date of a hurricane in the Atlantic is Aug. 11.

It’s worth noting that right behind Invest 95L is another strong tropical wave that the models show has a chance at formation a few days after this one. Worth a mention, but not worth spending time on just yet.

What about July? The first day of July is Monday. Since 1950, 43 hurricanes have formed in July – about one every other year, so it’s not all that uncommon. But what is even more rare is to have a July hurricane in the Caribbean. There have been only nine since 1950.

Seeing this much action in the deep Tropical Atlantic is very rare this early in the season. Typically we have to wait until August for that area to come alive because, in most years, there are limiting factors like dry air, wind shear or cooler water temps. But not in 2024. And I can’t say I am surprised given what we have known for months – 2024 would likely be hyperactive and defy logic from previous seasons.

That’s because we are now transitioning to a La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, which typically brings almost twice the number of hurricanes to the Atlantic. We also have record warm ocean temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic – as seen by Dr Kim Wood’s graph below – providing high-octane fuel for storms.

Historically speaking, when we see activity this early in the deep Tropical Atlantic, we end up with active seasons as per Dr Phil Klotzbach . Again it’s not surprising we are seeing this season, given how favorable the Atlantic should be with the background state we are expecting this summer and fall.

So what is the long-term fate of 95-L? It is way too early to tell. The models show that once the system reaches the middle of the Caribbean it encounters increased shear. Also, it is very early for a system to be successful in this area, a region that is called the Caribbean graveyard for a reason.

Most of the models show that the system will suffer to some degree as it moves through here. But to what degree? And if it survives, it does have a chance of getting its act back together.

So there are a lot of unknowns and in order to predict the eventual track of the system, it needs to form first. But it hasn’t yet, so anyone who tells you they know exactly where this storm is going is selling you a bridge.

Stay tuned, no need to panic, but just use this as an excuse to top off your hurricane kit so it’s ready for the season.

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