Strategists on what Biden and Trump need to do in the CNN debate to win voters

The candidates are in Atlanta for CNN’s Presidential Debate. To discuss the showdown between President Biden and former President Trump and what to expect, Amna Nawaz sat down with Amy Walter from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Republican strategist Kevin Madden and Democratic strategist Guy Cecil.

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Amna Nawaz: All right, let’s turn now to our panel of analysts.

Guy and Kevin, I’m going to ask you to jump in here from your perspectives, because, as Lisa referenced, our poll has shown the majority of registered voters are unsatisfied with these two candidates, right? And it’s across both parties, 51 percent of Democrats, 42 percent of Republicans, 70 percent of independents.

Kevin, how much of tonight is about the candidates calming those concerns just within their own parties?

Kevin Madden, Republican Strategist: Well, look, I think you probably have about 95 percent of the audience tonight is going to be tuning in with a rooting interest. Like, even if they’re not happy with the candidates and they wish somebody else was running, they’re probably more inclined to already vote for — if they already are leaning Republican or leaning Democrat.

And so this debate has more of an opportunity for that 4 to 5 percent that hasn’t not yet made up their mind. And while a lot of the candidates are going to be trying to juice their base and remind that — as one voter said, like, remind everybody that they’re the fighter and that they’re the candidate that they need to get out for, we still have those voters that have not made up their mind.

And that is the issue sets that those voters care about. These candidates now have an opportunity to talk directly to those voters about those issues. For Trump, it’s voters — motivating these voters on immigration and inflation, things like the economic sentiments that they have right now, the anxiety that they have about the economy.

He has to speak very directly to those voters on those concerns. And as we heard earlier, for Biden, I think a lot of this is reminding voters about the January 6 Donald Trump and the chaos that he brings and raising the stakes of the election, so that not only do his base voters get out, but those swing voters in suburban areas around this country take a second thought on whether or not they really want to support Trump.

And they can be reminded that Joe Biden is the candidate that has always put himself forward as the candidate of stability, somebody who can bring people together in the country. And then, lastly, I think the issue of abortion. This is an issue where Joe Biden feels he can draw the hardest contrast.

And it’s also an issue where, right now, the Republicans are in disarray on this issue legislatively, with trying to find a cohesive message. And I think drawing that contrast. And some of these swing voters in the state where a lot of these debates about abortion are had against the backdrop of some — what many voters would see as extreme policies, that’s his best chance to really motivate those voters to get out on Election Day for him.

So this is a — one of those moments where everything in the political world stops.

Amna Nawaz: Yes.

Kevin Madden: And for one moment, one night, 90 minutes, you have the concentrated attention of these swing voters.

Amna Nawaz: Guy, how do you look at it? What does President Biden have to do tonight?

Guy Cecil, Democratic Strategist: Yes, well, first of all, the calm Donald Trump may RSVP to the debate, but I think we all know he’s probably not going to stay around very long.

(Laughter)

Guy Cecil: Then the other Donald Trump will show up.

But I think it’s important for Joe Biden not to take the bait. Joe Biden’s job is to do two things, one, talk directly to the American people about what he’s done as president, and, two, remind them of what Donald Trump has done as president.

We’re in a unique situation. We have two former — we have a current president and a former president running against each other. And I think it’s Joe Biden’s job to make sure they remind him, what was Donald Trump like as president of the United States? And, more importantly, what will he do again?

So you will see them focus on the economy. You will see them focus on abortion. You will also see them focus on democracy and I think try to draw a very sharp contrast between what their two visions of American democracy looks like going forward.

Trump’s job is really just to do one thing, to try to distract Joe Biden. He may not be able to do it with a mic off, but he can certainly try to do it when the mic is on. And so I think you will see a lot of the same debate performance that you saw from him in that first debate last time they both ran, which is attack, attack the family.

I think you will see a lot of attacks on the family. I think you will see a lot of attacks on immigration issues. And I think it’s important that Joe Biden responds. Remember, it was Donald Trump that killed the most recent immigration bill that was on the House floor, not Joe Biden, and so I think continuing to draw that contrast.

Finally, I think we all know it’s important for Joe Biden to be strong in his presentation. I mean, frankly, the two voters you interviewed could replace the two of us in terms of their debate analysis tonight.

(Laughter)

Guy Cecil: Because I think they really nailed what most Americans are going to be looking for.

Amna Nawaz: When you say strong, you mean in terms of presentation…

Guy Cecil: Yes, I think…

Amna Nawaz: … overcoming that feebleness narrative, as the voter said.

Guy Cecil: We saw the response in the State of the Union, right…

Amna Nawaz: Yes.

Guy Cecil: … when he was focused, he was talking to the American people. He also, frankly, had the MAGA Republicans in the House to play off of…

Amna Nawaz: Yes.

Guy Cecil: … and their response to him. He will have that again in Donald Trump. In many ways, Trump is the perfect foil for Joe Biden’s sort of steady approach to governing and politics.

Amna Nawaz: Amy, tell us more about the people who are tuning in. We know there’s a lot of interest.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report: Yes.

Amna Nawaz: We know folks are unsatisfied with the candidates. But who are they speaking to?

Are there people out there whose minds can be changed by tonight?

Amy Walter: I don’t know. I think the key for this debate, especially if you’re Biden — because he is starting off behind in this race, according to where we are in the polling. So he needs to change the trajectory of this race from one that is only about Joe Biden and what he’s done for the last four years, and specifically where he has fallen short on inflation and on immigration, and put the focus onto this choice.

Make it less of a referendum, more of a choice between these two candidates, everything that Kevin and guy were just discussing about, the ways in which Donald Trump’s personality can overwhelm the stage and remind people who had voted for Biden before why they voted for him.

To me, the group of people that are going to be the most important for this debate — we’re only in June — are the people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but are on the fence about him right now. Those are the folks who Joe Biden should be able to get back into his camp. We know in polling that we have done, they make up about one in five voters right now in the swing state, so it’s a not-insignificant group of people.

But they are more interested in hearing about the economy and also immigration. So, while abortion, I think will be an issue and is something that President Biden has going for him, these are voters — the reason I think they’re sitting in undecided right now, they’re not sticking with Biden is that they are frustrated with the cost of things.

And they need to hear from the president how he’s going to make things better. And Trump needs to do the same thing. Remember, we — this is the first time. Have we ever had a candidate who was the challenger who’s come into a debate without having any debate? He didn’t have any debates in the primary.

So, for many voters, they — sure, they remember what he — they may remember what he did back when he was president. But he hasn’t had to set out any of his policies, answer questions about what he was going to do in a new term.

Amna Nawaz: And to see them side by side for the first time.

Amy Walter: That’s right.

Amna Nawaz: Voters get to see them that way too.

Amy Walter: Yes.

Amna Nawaz: We have got a minute-and-a-half or so left.

And I want to ask each of you, because you have been in these rooms. You know what it is to get ready for this moment. Everyone seems to know a lot about both of these candidates already. They’re not tuning in to learn something new. So what is it that the campaigns are sending out with the candidates tonight in these final hours before they go before the American people?

Kevin, what’s the message?

Kevin Madden: Well, I think, first of all, there’s two rules of any debate. And it’s you win or lose these in the first 30 minutes.

So it’s really important to come out very strong. I think, secondly, if you’re not on offense, you’re losing. So, I expect both candidates will come out and be very aggressive against each other.

The last thing I’d say is that the candidate that wins presidential races is the candidate that answers the question affirmatively, is this candidate on my side? That’s the key sort of rhetorical sort of touchstone that the candidates, I think, are going to try to deploy in a lot of their efforts tonight.

Guy Cecil: And I think that’s what you have seen the Biden campaign do. Everything leading up to this debate in terms of campaign messaging has been about Joe Biden being on the side of the middle class and the working class and the American people, and Donald Trump being on the side of, well, himself and the very wealthy.

The fact that we have a presidential candidate that will arrive with more felony convictions than presidential debates or difficult interviews leading up to the first debate, I think, is going to be a pretty important point as they go back and forth.

Amna Nawaz: We’re just hours away from the debate. We will watch and we will see.

Kevin Madden, Guy Cecil, Amy Walter, thank you so much.

Kevin Madden: Great to be with you.

Geoff Bennett: And to watch the simulcast of the CNN presidential debate, with more reporting and analysis to follow, be sure to tune into PBS tonight at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. We will all be back.