Surprise Copa win proves Panama has cracked the USMNT code

In international soccer, we tend to know which teams will win against which opponents: Argentina is likely to beat Paraguay, Germany is likely to beat Estonia, et cetera.

Generations of strong performance and tournament pedigree set certain nations up for success against their competitors.

But beyond that logic lies the murky concept of the "bogey" team. It's a team that shouldn't be able to win against a certain opponent, but somehow always manages to put in a strong performance anyway.

Iceland became England's bogey team in 2016, and Thursday, Panama cemented its legacy as the enduring bogey team of the United States.

The USMNT has faced Panama for decades, but it wasn't until 2018 that the two began to spar with intention.

Trapped together in the World Cup qualification bubble — a little worse than Mexico and Costa Rica but a little better than everyone else in North America — Panama and the USMNT quickly realized that only one would make it through to the tournament in Russia.

It was Panama who prevailed in the end after the USMNT couldn't secure a result against Trinidad and Tobago in the final round, and Panama's trip to the World Cup became the darkest moment in modern U.S. Soccer history.

It didn’t end there. Panama showed up again during the semifinals of the 2023 Gold Cup to beat the USMNT on penalties and clinch a final appearance against Mexico.

Panama has proven itself excellent at cracking the USMNT’s mental defense — something that’s just as critical in tournament play as cracking its physical one.

Knowing that the team is young, untested and playing with plenty of pressure on its shoulders, Panama does its best to unsettle the USMNT players individually and force them into silly mistakes. Sometimes these mistakes lead to Panama goals; sometimes, like last night, they lead to emotional reactions and wholly earned red cards.

As the USMNT moves forward in CONCACAF play, it must be aware of Panama’s skill. While recent results and FIFA rankings would lead many to believe that Panama stands no chance against the U.S., the truth is something closer to the opposite.

Panama has the clear mental advantage in head to head play — and as long as that stands, Panama will continue to win.

The USMNT and Panama return to Copa America action on Tuesday, July 2. Both need results to clinch advancement in the next round; only one of the two will advance.

With the USMNT facing likely group winner Uruguay and Panama facing Bolivia, the advantage is firmly in Panama’s corner.