So far, the 2024 NBA offseason is not exactly firing imaginations — at least not outside of New York — about shakeups to the existing league hierarchy in the 2024-25 regular season. The 2024 NBA Draft lacked sizzle and the free-agent market that opens Sunday isn't looking hot, either.
The league only has itself to blame.
While most of the last 13 offseasons have been almost as entertaining as the on-court competition, with multiple teams carving out massive salary-cap space to pursue big-name free agents, new punitive salary-cap rules and cap-eating super-maximum contracts appear to have put the brakes on that. NBA movers and shakers appear to enjoy the excitement generated by the battle for talent as much as fans and media, which is why they're not all that thrilled with the current offerings.
"Summers used to be spectacular," lamented one Western Conference executive. "Free agents meeting with teams at midnight before making a decision, teams spending thousands of dollars on PowerPoint presentations, videos and marketing plans. All that is gone. I think the league did not anticipate the impact of the new CBA (collective bargaining agreement)."
Front-office personnel surveyed by FOX Sports identified Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George and Chicago Bulls forward DeMar DeRozan as the only franchise-changing free agents expected to be in play. The intrigue was muted by potential free agents Pascal Siakam , OG Anunoby , Nic Claxton and Malik Monk already signing extensions with their respective teams. The consensus is that forward LeBron James will do the same with the Lakers now that they drafted his son, Bronny James, with the 55th pick on Thursday. They will become the first father-son duo to play in the league at the same time. There's also a strong belief that James Harden will re-up with the Clippers.
All reports are that the Clippers are looking to retain George as well. George is expected to exercise the player opt-out on the last year of his current deal, but is not opposed to staying. The rub, one league source said, is that when the Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, $150 million extension, they assured him they would not sign George to a longer deal. George, meanwhile, is looking for as much as the salary cap would allow, which is four years and $221 million.
Some league sources have speculated that if George refuses to accept a shorter deal, they would resolve the conundrum by flipping him in a sign-and-trade to a team interested in that four-year term, rather than have him walk as a free agent and get nothing. One team that has been mentioned in reports are the Golden State Warriors , who could potentially land him in exchange for Chris Paul and Andrew Wiggins — or Paul, Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney . An Eastern Conference executive suggested that the Warriors would have to add at least a couple of first-round picks to the deal.
The limited options to improve are no doubt driving up George's value. How many other players benefit from that remains to be seen, but the general belief is that George is on a talent tier of his own, as is DeRozan on the next tier, with Charlotte's Miles Bridges at the top of the next tier.
"Outside of George and DeRozan, it's a bunch of guys that would normally be chasing the mid-level exception that expect to get $25 million per," the Eastern Conference executive said.
Included in that tier by the front-office personnel surveyed: Bridges, Klay Thompson , Kentavious Caldwell-Pope , Caleb Martin , Gordon Hayward , Isaiah Hartenstein , Jonas Valanciunas , Tyus Jones , Tobias Harris and Buddy Hield .
"Once DeRozan and PG go off the board, teams that want to improve will probably need to engage in trade concepts," the Eastern Conference executive said. "Otherwise, it's overpaying free agents like Klay, KCP, Caleb Martin, Gordon Hayward and Hield."
Perhaps the most intriguing storyline heading into the weekend revolves around the spotlight the Knicks have put on Philadelphia — in more ways than one.
In sending five future first-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Mikal Bridges , the Knicks now have a four-player nucleus from the 2018 NCAA-champion Villanova squad — Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo , Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson — and are viewed as the biggest threats in the East to the defending-champion Boston Celtics . The early joke going around the league is if the Knicks win the 2025 title, they'll have the victory parade on the Villanova campus, located 13 miles northwest of Philadelphia.
For the city's NBA team, the 76ers , to make sure that doesn't happen, team president Daryl Morey has some work to do. He will have the wherewithal to do it, in the form of at least $55 million in salary-cap space, but of the 28 players (!) who logged minutes for the Sixers last season, only four are under contract for next season — 2022 league MVP Joel Embiid , back-up center Paul Reed and two end-of-the-bench guards, Ricky Council IV and Jeff Dowtin.
It's a foregone conclusion that restricted free agent All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey will be kept, but unless Morey lands George or DeRozan, it's hard to envision the Sixers keeping pace with the Knicks, especially if the latter find a way to retain Hartenstein.
One Eastern Conference scout's top five players based on the level of interest from the player's existing team and others: George, DeRozan, Bridges, D'Angelo Russell and Hartenstein.
A Western Conference scout had Hartenstein and point guard Tyus Jones as the best potential value signings, as in players whose asking price would correlate with their impact.
"If you need a big who wants to be a big, Isaiah is the guy," said a second Western Conference scout.
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Bridges, meanwhile, appears to have far more perceived value within the league than in the eyes of fans or media. Had he averaged 21 points and seven rebounds while shooting 46% somewhere other than on a 21-61 Charlotte Hornets team, maybe that would be different. Charlotte, Philadelphia, Detroit and Utah are all potential landing spots. Three survey respondents had him third behind George and DeRozan as far as pure talent, and the Eastern Conference scout expects the Sixers to target the 6-foot-7 225-pound small forward if they can't get George or DeRozan.
"A great Robin," said a Western Conference scout.
The dilemma teams face is finding a way to improve or upgrade their roster without breaching a newly installed second apron to the salary cap. The cost of doing so is more competitive than financial. As Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank told ESPN, "With the new CBA, it's not even about the money as it is how are you going to build a sustainable roster, maintain your tools to have transactional flexibility? And with that comes really, really hard decisions."
The lack of impactful talent in the '24 draft didn't help. One front-office executive likened No. 1 pick Zaccharie Rissacher to fellow Frenchman Nic Batum. "A career role player," the executive said. "A good one. But a role player."
The comforting news is that the 2025 offseason promises to be far more splashy, with Duke's Cooper Flagg already being touted as the presumptive No. 1 pick and a legitimate franchise cornerstone. The Nets' deal with the Knicks is a strong indicator that they are looking to position themselves to win the draft lottery. The expiration of Ben Simmons ' $40 million contract should give them ample salary-cap room, making them a potentially valuable trade partner for teams looking to avoid the dreaded second apron.
But if this summer is any indication, don't expect another free-agent frenzy anytime soon.
"This year is a beta test," said a Western Conference scout. "New player-acquisition plans must balance the spending on free agents and the penalties of the apron. Most teams have operated on the ‘Greater Fool Theory.' Meaning that there was always a way to offload a tragically overpaid contract because you could always find a greater fool in the league willing to take it. The apron may mitigate the use of the ‘GFT' going forward."
Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," on NBA forward Brian Grant's battle with young onset Parkinson's, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds." He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @ RicBucher .
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