UEFA Euro 2024 Preview: Round of 16

UEFA Euro 2024 Preview: Round of 16

The group stage of Euro 2024 was in a word chaotic. Hopefully, the Round of 16 will bring the same level of entertainment. Group A went as expected with Germany topping the group thanks to a 90+2’ goal from Niclas Füllkrug in their final match against Switzerland. Meanwhile, Hungary finished third after a 90+10’ winner from Kevin Csoboth to eliminate Scotland, but they did not do enough to get out of the group stage. Group B also had its share of late goals with Italy’s Mattia Zaccagni scoring in the 90+8th minute to see his nation advance to the Round of 16 ahead of Croatia. The most boring group was Group C where seven total goals were scored with England leading the way ahead of Denmark and Slovenia, who both advanced at Euro 2024.

While Group C was a drag, Group D was nothing but thrilling on the final day. A surprise Austria win over the Netherlands paired with a draw between France and Poland saw Austria top the group with France finishing second and the Netherlands earning a place in the Round of 16 as a third-place team. The chaos of the group stage continued in Group E with all four teams finishing level on four points. However, goal difference and goals scored led to Romania topping the group ahead of Belgium, with Slovakia finishing third and Ukraine unfortunate losers. Slovakia advanced to the Round of 16, but Ukraine became the first nation not to advance with four or more points in Euro history. And then there was Group F. Portugal had won the group before the final match but shockingly lost to the lone first-timers in Georgia 2-0 on the final day. This saw Georgia advance as a top third-place team. The other match in Group F on the final day was the epitome of chaos. Turkey held on to beat the Czech Republic 2-1 after 20 cards were shown by the referee.

The biggest surprise of the group stage was that the leading goalscorer was own goal. There were seven own goals in the group stage. In a tournament with Kylian Mbappé , Cristiano Ronaldo , Harry Kane , and other stars, it was Georgia’s Georges Mikautadze who led the way with three goals. Now it is time for the Round of 16. Here is all you need to know ahead of the eight matches.

Spain vs Georgia – June 30

The Cinderella story of Euro 2024 so far has to be Georgia. With this being their debut at an international tournament nothing was expected of them. However, as mentioned above they surprised everyone by moving on to the Round of 16. They were led by the best goalkeeper of the group stage Giorgi Mamardashvili . The Valencia starter made a whopping 11 saves against the Czech Republic to steal a 1-1 draw. Unfortunately, that draws them against Spain. The Spanish side looked like the best team at Euro 2024 in the group stage winning all three matches and not conceding a single goal. Lamine Yamal has broken out as a 16-year-old star, while Álvaro Morata continues to lead the line.

For Georgia to get anything done they will need to break down the Spanish defense which has been superb thanks to Dani Carvajal and company as well as David Raya in goal. The pressure will be on Mikautadze and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to use their skill to get past the formidable opponents. They will likely also need another perfect performance from Mamardashvili if they have any hope of advancing.

Prediction

Spain is just far too good and talented for Georgia. They played twice in Euro 2024 qualifying with Spain winning 7-1 and 3-1. This seems the most straightforward of all the Round of 16 matches. I see Spain winning their third straight against Georgia 3-0.

Germany vs Denmark – June 29

The hosts did what they had to do in the group stage to advance to the Round of 16. 20-year-old Jamal Musiala has been one of the best players at Euro 2024 and sits with two goals. His midfield partner Florian Wirtz opened the tournament with a goal 10 minutes into the opening match against Scotland. While the Germans were impressive in a weak Group A, Denmark managed three draws in the group stage to finish second on disciplinary points. One of the best moments of the group stage was seeing Christian Eriksen scoring in the first match. This came after the Manchester United midfielder collapsed on the field at Euro 2020 due to a cardiac arrest.

A player who will need to step up for Denmark in this Round of 16 match is Rasmus Højlund . The forward has not impressed at all and has yet to score. It may be time for him to come off the bench with Yussuf Poulsen getting the start. The attack of Denmark will have their work cut out for them against a strong German defense led by Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah . For Germany to win they will need Kai Havertz to step it up a bit in the attacking end and Toni Kroos and İlkay Gündoğan to continue controlling the midfield.

Prediction

Germany will have the hometown crowd in Dortmund on their side and as we have seen with Borussia Dortmund that crowd is more than capable of swinging a match. With that being said this Danish team has proven to be a tough out with a semifinal appearance at Euro 2020. This will be a tightly contested match, but I see Germany taking it 2-1.

Portugal vs Slovenia – July 1

The story with Portugal as always surrounds Ronaldo. The most-capped and all-time leading international goal scorer did not do too much in the group stage. The most notable feat for Ronaldo was getting an assist against Turkey. This was a surprise since he was through on goal but slid the ball over to Bruno Fernandes who tapped it into the empty net. By having already secured their spot in the Round of 16 as Group F winners, Portugal was upset by Georgia and it will be interesting to see how they rebound. Slovenia meanwhile, drew all three group-stage matches in large part to the play of Jan Oblak .

For Slovenia to win this Round of 16 match they will need a strong performance from the midfield pairing of Adam Gnezda Čerin and Timi Elšnik . These two center-mids will need to slow down the progression of Portugal who have an array of talent in the midfield and attack. This will need to be a grinding game for Slovenia to stop Portugal. On the other side, Portugal must utilize their depth to break down a stout defense. Portugal has been bringing Pedro Neto and Diogo Jota off the bench and neither have yet to get on the scoresheet.

Prediction

Portugal’s depth and talent will be too much for the surprise Slovenia side that is making their first appearance in the Round of 16 at a major tournament. With the likes of Ronaldo, Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva this could be a cakewalk for Portugal. That’s not quite what I see, but I have Portugal winning 2-0.

France vs Belgium – July 1

This is probably the most exciting match in the Round of 16 at Euro 2024. France is currently the 2nd ranked team in the FIFA rankings, while Belgium is 3rd. Belgium started on a bad note losing to Slovakia 1-0, but a win over Romania and a draw with Ukraine saw them finish second in their group. Kevin De Bruyne played reasonably well in the group stage but was booed by fans following the 0-0 draw with Ukraine. Belgium has also been cursed by VAR, which has ruled out three goals from Romelu Lukaku . France has been just as unimpressive. They managed to beat Austria thanks to an own goal and only scored one other goal on a penalty from Mbappé.

France completely underperformed in the group stage. However, they still have an extremely talented team that is full of stars. Antoine Griezmann has been virtually non-existent and will need to show up against Belgium and De Bruyne. For France to win they will need to act like the team that has made the past two World Cup finals. Mbappé with his broken nose may not be as effective and that means that the rest of the attack will need to step it up, I’m looking at you Ousmane Dembélé . The PSG winger has been utterly useless thus far at Euro 2024. Belgium’s path to victory is just as simple. They need some luck that has eluded them so far. Lukaku is a big target and is more than capable of scoring whenever, but if he stays goalless then Jérémy Doku and Leandro Trossard will need to show why they deserve to start.

Prediction

France can only be held quietly for so long. Belgium have been rather disappointing at the last two Euros and last World Cup and with this possibly being the last ride of their golden generation all the pressure is on. I have France winning this 2-1 after extra time.

Romania vs Netherlands – July 2

Romania was my dark horse pick coming into Euro 2024 and they have not disappointed. Winning Group E was a start and outside of the 2-0 loss to Belgium, they have looked dominant. A 3-0 win over Ukraine started them on the right foot and they really could have beaten Slovakia if it wasn’t for a strong performance by the Slovak goalkeeper. Răzvan Marin led the way with two goals in the group stage. The Netherlands is rather fortunate to have made it here. They needed an 83rd-minute goal from Wout Weghorst to beat Poland and fell to Austria with a chance to win the group. As he did at the 2022 World Cup, Cody Gakpo has found his scoring boots. The Liverpool stud has two goals while Memphis Depay got his first goal in the game against Austria.

This should be a very tightly contested match. Romania has a good chance to win despite being heavy underdogs against a Dutch team full of stars. The strength of this Netherlands team is their defense and Romania will need Denis Drăguș to play like he did for Turkish side Gaziantep where he bagged 14 goals with his aggressive play. From there Marin and Nicolae Stanciu will need to control the midfield which is the weakest spot on the Netherlands. For the Dutch to get the win in front of their dedicated fan base Gakpo and Depay will need some help from Xavi Simons . They will also need Virgil Van Dijk to put his poor performance against Austria behind him.

Prediction

The Netherlands has struggled at the Euros recently, going out in the group stage at Euro 2012, missing out on Euro 2026 altogether, and a shocking loss in the Round of 16 to the Czech Republic at Euro 2020. Meanwhile, this is Romania’s first knockout stage appearance since Euro 2000. My prediction is an upset win for Romania by a score of 1-0.

Austria vs Turkey – July 2

Austria had a chance at advancing to the Round of 16 coming into Euro 2024, but that was as the third-place team in a group with France and the Netherlands. However, after a 3-2 win over the Netherlands, they found themselves as a group winner. Marcel Sabitzer was one of the best midfielders in the group stage and his 80th-minute goal gave Austria the win over the Netherlands. In front of him has been Marko Arnautović . Arnautović started in the wins against Poland and Netherlands after coming off the bench in the loss to France. His physical play up top has been huge for Austria. Turkey needed a point against the Czech Republic to guarantee a place in the Round of 16, but after Cenk Tosun scored in the 90+4’ they took all three to advance.

Turkey seemed a bit lucky to get the result against the Czech Republic in a feisty match that saw the quickest red card in Euro history after just 20 minutes. For them to take out Austria in the Round of 16 and advance to their first quarterfinal since 2008 they will need captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu to keep up the impressive play. They will also have to continue thriving off a raucous crowd that has traveled across Europe to be there. Austria is missing their best player and captain David Alaba , but they have not missed a beat. For them to continue their run they will need to keep playing as a unit. Five different players have scored a goal for Austria. Patrick Pentz will need to have a strong game in goal against a Turkish side that has scored five goals of their own.

Prediction

I was not sold on this Austria team coming into Euro 2024. However, after a strong group stage, I am sold. They have scored the second most goals at Euro 2024 so far. I see Austria keeping it going and winning 3-1.

England vs Slovakia – June 30

One of the most disappointing teams in the group stage was England. Sure they managed to win the group but getting just one win in a group with Serbia, Slovenia, and Denmark was pathetic. The two goals by England were the fewest by a group winner at Euro 2024. Jude Bellingham and Kane may have scored the goals, but outside of that, they have done virtually nothing. Premier League player of the season Phil Foden has looked invisible in all three games as well. Slovakia won their first match at Euro 2024 over Belgium 1-0 with the goal coming from Ivan Schranz . Schranz scored twice in the group stage and will lead the line in this Round of 16 match.

England still has the most talented team in the Euros but for them to get by Slovakia and make a run something will need to change. The tactics that Gareth Southgate has been playing have not really worked. The dangerous attack has looked scared to go forward and maybe including Cole Palmer , Kobbie Mainoo , or Ollie Watkins could give England that cutting edge. For Slovakia to win they will need to break down the English defense that has somewhat surprised people this tournament. That all starts with Schranz, but Lukáš Haraslín and Ondrej Duda can impact the attack just as much.

Prediction

As poor as England played in the group stage, they are still a very dangerous team that is looking to find their footing in Germany. Slovakia has nothing to lose which makes them extremely dangerous since not many people expected them to get out of the group stage. At the end of the day England is the better team with the better players, and I see them winning 2-1.

Switzerland vs Italy – June 29

Switzerland was just minutes away from winning Group A but conceded a late equalizer against Germany to finish in second. They finished with one win and two draws but looked much better than the draws showed. The peak of the group stage for the Swiss had to be Xherdan Shaqiri ’s beautiful goal against Scotland, plus the 3-1 win over Hungary must have been nice. Shaqiri seems to disappear during the club season but always shows up for his nation and usually scores one of the best goals of the tournament. The defending Euro champs, Italy, also had a late goal decide their fate in the group stage. They were seconds away from losing to Croatia and likely being eliminated from Euro 2024. However, Zaccagni scored a great goal to steal a point and a place in the Round of 16.

Italy did not look very impressive going forward in the group stage scoring just three goals. For them to book their place in the quarterfinals they will need to find some consistency. That starts with Federico Chiesa , who started the first two matches before coming off the bench in the group finale. Chiesa has the speed to burn any defense and that will be needed against a decent backline for the Swiss headed by goalkeeper Yann Sommer . For Switzerland, they need to get out to a quick start. This has hindered Italy thus far as they conceded the quickest-ever goal in the Euros, just 23 seconds into their opening match against Albania. Getting one past Gianluigi Donnarumma will be hard enough, so the Swiss will need something from Breel Embolo and Granit Xhaka .

Prediction

This one has penalties written all over it. The last three Euro knockout games for Switzerland have gone to penalties, while Italy’s last two have gone the distance. With the outstanding quality of goalkeepers, this looks the most likely of all the Round of 16 matches to go to penalties. I have Switzerland winning on penalties after a 1-1 draw.

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