NBA free-agency predictions: Paul George leaves LA, Magic add multi-time champion

The legal tampering period for NBA free agency begins on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, which means teams can agree to deals with free agents, who will be allowed to officially sign contracts on July 6.

Although several players have already agreed to contracts to return to the teams they played for last season, there should be plenty of notable names who will find new homes this offseason. With that in mind, here are our predictions for where the top NBA free agents will end up this offseason.

(Note: For this list, we are not including players who are either entering restricted free agency or have already agreed to new deals.)

Paul George

Prediction: Signs with the Philadelphia 76ers

The biggest domino of the offseason, George could've opted into the final season of his four-year, $176M contract to force a trade out of Los Angeles. However, the nine-time All-Star declined his player option on Saturday and will enter free agency. While a return to Los Angeles cannot be ruled out, George and the Clippers appear headed for a divorce after the team reportedly decided not to offer him a max contract, according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst .

One could argue that Philadelphia would be better off protecting its long-term financial security by strictly signing role players this offseason. Even so, considering Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey recently said his goal is “to be the best team in the East next year," making a splashy move like signing George feels like the more likely outcome. With a trio of George, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers are back in the mix with the Celtics and Knicks as the top contenders in the Eastern Conference.

LeBron James

Prediction: Re-signs with the Los Angeles Lakers

After not playing a role in his podcast co-host getting hired as head coach or the team drafting his son, James re-ups with the Lakers on a deal to finish his historic career in Los Angeles. The 20-time All-Star declined his player option but is expected to re-sign with the Lakers to play alongside Bronny James this season, making them the first father-son duo in NBA history to share the court together.

James, 39, remains one of the top players in the Association and is coming off a season where he averaged 25.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 8.3 rebounds while shooting a career-high 41% from three-point range. With the Lakers sitting 20th in cap space this offseason and needing to make some massive upgrades to their slightly above-average roster, it'll be interesting to see if James takes a team-friendly deal in free agency.

James Harden

Prediction: Re-signs with the Los Angeles Clippers

Despite losing George, team owner Steve Ballmer knows he can't launch a full-scale rebuild, especially with the Clippers' new home, the Intuit Dome, set to open this season. Los Angeles acquired Harden in a blockbuster deal with the Philadelphia 76ers last season, and although the team failed to reach the second round of the playoffs, the former MVP played well for the Clippers.

In 72 games last season, Harden averaged 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 8.5 assists. Considering Los Angeles will lose 22.6 points per game, assuming George heads elsewhere, as we predict, Harden could be asked to shoulder more of the scoring load in 2024-25. In turn, this could make Harden one of the best value signings of the offseason, depending on the price of the contract he signs.

DeMar DeRozan

Prediction: Signs with the Los Angeles Clippers

With George headed to Philadelphia, the Clippers bring the Compton, California native DeRozan home, forming a new "Big 3" with Harden and Kawhi Leonard. DeRozan, 34, spent the last three seasons as the star of the Chicago Bulls but is not engaged in talks with the team regarding an extension, per Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes .

Although DeRozan isn't the same level of talent as George at this stage in his career, he's only continued to improve with age, which should give the Clippers optimism about signing him to a long-term deal. During his time in Chicago, DeRozan averaged 25.5 points, 5.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game while making two All-Star Game appearances in the process.

Klay Thompson

Prediction: Lands with the Denver Nuggets

According to Anthony Slater of The Athletic, contract discussions between the Warriors and Thompson "are essentially frozen," and "it's more probable than ever" that the four-time champion will leave the only NBA team he's played for. There's no denying that Thompson is declining, as he averaged the third-fewest points per game of his career last season ( 17.9 ) while shooting an uncharacteristic 38.7% from three-point range.

Nonetheless, his skill set perfectly complements the Nuggets roster, especially if forward Kentavious Caldwell-Pope leaves this offseason. There are two different avenues for Thompson to land in Denver, as he could sign as a free agent or be acquired through a sign-and-trade. Seeing as though Golden State could offer him the higher deal, perhaps the team would be willing to facilitate a sign and trade to repay Thompson for his service.

Isaiah Hartenstein

Prediction: Re-signs with the New York Knicks

The Knicks made several savvy deals to save money during the 2024 NBA Draft in an attempt to re-sign their free agents, and the efforts won't go to waste. Like OG Anunoby, Hartenstein realizes he could be one of the final pieces to bringing a championship back to New York and ultimately signs a four-year deal with the Knicks for less than what he could've received elsewhere.

Tobias Harris

Prediction: Signs with the Dallas Mavericks

Harris, who averaged 17.2 points and 6.5 rebounds last season, never lived up to the expectations that came along with the five-year, $180 million deal he signed with the Sixers in 2019. After failing to score in Philadelphia's series-clinching first-round loss to the Knicks in the 2023-24 playoffs, Harris aims to prove he can be a reliable contributor on a contending team, signing with the reigning Western Conference champion Mavericks.

Even though Harris wasn't the third scoring option Philadelphia needed to get over the hump, it's impossible to dispute he's an ideal fit for Dallas, which is in need of more 3-and-D wings. Mavericks guards Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving would arguably be the best facilitators Harris has played with in his career, so perhaps he can become a more efficient shooter in Dallas.

Miles Bridges

Prediction: Re-signs with the Charlotte Hornets

Bridges went unsigned for the 2022-23 season after he pleaded no contest to a felony domestic violence charge in November 2022 but returned to Charlotte last season. In 69 games for the woeful Hornets, Bridges averaged 21 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, both of which were career highs.

Given his past legal troubles, Bridges probably won't have much of a market in free agency. Nevertheless, since Hornets vice president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson told reporters he's "made it very clear" he wants Bridges to remain with the Hornets, don’t be surprised to see the former first-round pick sign a long-term pact with Charlotte.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Prediction: Signs with the Orlando Magic

One of the biggest surprises of this past season, Orlando desperately needs to add some offensive threats to help elevate its talented young core. Despite finishing as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2024, the Magic ranked 22nd among teams in offensive rating ( 112.9 ) and 24th in three-point percentage ( 35.2% ).

Ideally, the Magic would like to sign a lead ball handler this offseason, but with an underwhelming selection of realistic options available, the team decides to splurge on the veteran wing Caldwell-Pope. Aside from the championship experience Caldwell-Pope -- who won titles with the Lakers and Nuggets -- will bring, the 31-year-old will be a two-way force on the perimeter for Orlando. Last season, Caldwell-Pope averaged 10.1 for Denver while shooting 46% from the field and 40.6% from beyond the arc.

Jonas Valanciunas

Prediction: Signs with the Los Angeles Lakers

Assuming James takes a pay cut to allow the Lakers to obtain the full midlevel exception, they'll surely have Valanciunas as one of their top targets. Anthony Davis reportedly told the Lakers before last season that he preferred to play fewer minutes at center, which didn't come to fruition, but signing Valanciunas would allow Davis to get his wish.

Valanciunas (12.2 points and 8.8 rebounds last season) is more of a traditional big man and one of the better rebounders in the Association. However, Valanciunas has made strides in recent years to become more of a floor spacer, and that ability would create a compelling partnership with Davis as his frontcourt mate.