Major Hurricane Beryl racing across Windward Islands

Beryl will race across the Windward Islands Monday as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, with great risk to lives and the likelihood of destruction from winds and storm surge prior to pushing across the Caribbean.

Hurricane Beryl's intensity is once again on the upswing as it charges toward the Caribbean, where it is predicted to strike with powerful winds and flooding storm surge.

On Saturday afternoon, Beryl reached hurricane status with winds of 75 mph just 24 hours after the system was first formed as a tropical depression over the Atlantic Ocean. Beryl first become a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph on Sunday morning, and the intense hurricane continues to move westward at 20 mph, a brisk pace for a hurricane on Monday morning.

Beryl became the strongest hurricane for so early in the season in this sector of the Atlantic and may be the strongest system to ever cross Grenada and portions of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

AccuWeather has been anticipating a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter.

The hurricane regained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph sustained winds on Monday morning after undergoing changes in its eyewall Sunday night that caused a slight drop in strength. Beryl spent time as a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday.

AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting the storm to maintain its high intensity as it crosses the Windward Islands later Monday. The storm poses a serious threat to lives and significant property damage will result on Grenada and especially the smaller islands that make up St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 4 for the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean, with the expectation that the storm will be at or near Category 4 strength (maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph) by the time that it reaches those islands.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Tobago. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Martinique, Trinidad and St. Lucia. A tropical storm watch was in effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

As Beryl continues to the west-northwest, an AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes of 2 has been assigned for Jamaica. Additional numbers will be issued on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes as it approaches other land masses.

"Beryl continues to strengthen as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles, as the environment around the storm is becoming more conducive," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.

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"The storm will continue to be steered west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea by a large area of high pressure through the middle of [this] week," said DaSilva.

AccuWeather began referring to the system as a tropical rainstorm on Thursday to help raise public awareness of the risk to lives and property along the storm's path.

As Beryl tracks west, higher-than-historical-average water temperatures will be one of the primary factors leading to the hurricane’s intensity in the short term. It is possible that Beryl may encounter disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, as the system moves toward the western part of the Caribbean. This, as well as interaction with the larger and mountainous island of the region, may cause Beryl’s peak intensity to slip. However, it will likely remain a dangerous hurricane.

Beyond its trek through the Caribbean, all eyes will turn toward the United States. At this point, AccuWeather hurricane experts expect the U.S. to avoid impacts from the storm. That being said, residents should not let their guard down.

"At this point, the most likely scenario is for the storm to move westward into Mexico [late this week]; however, it is very important to note that if the high pressure across the Southeast weakens, that can allow the storm to move farther north and potentially directly impact the Gulf Coast," explained DaSilva.

For this reason, AccuWeather meteorologists have included South Texas in the potential ‘window of movement,’ with some risk to lives and property in the region.

Tropical storms and hurricanes in the central and eastern Atlantic are rare this early in the season. This area of the Atlantic, known as the main development region, does not typically spawn tropical storms and hurricanes until mid-August or later.

Additional tropical development is expected in the coming days

Beryl is no longer the last early-season tropical storm or hurricane to form in the central or eastern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Depression Three formed Sunday afternoon in the Bay of Campeche, strengthening to Tropical Storm Chris late Sunday evening before making landfall in northeastern Mexico Sunday night. Chris will continue the risk of dangerous flooding and mudslides as it pushes inland over eastern Mexico as a tropical rainstorm into Monday night.

AccuWeather hurricane experts are also referring to another area of likely development to the east of Beryl as a tropical rainstorm, with the expectation that it strengthens into yet another tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands. The possibility also remains that this next storm could strengthen into another hurricane before tracking into the Caribbean.

"This storm is expected to follow a track very similar to Beryl and can be near the Lesser Antilles around July 3-4 and could eventually bring very heavy rain and strong winds to portions of the Greater Antilles," warned DaSilva.

This next tropical rainstorm, while currently not expected to reach the high intensity that Beryl has, will still hamper recovery to areas that experience a major hurricane strike from Beryl, and lead to even more damage to infrastructure weakened or compromised by Beryl. The next two names in the Atlantic Basin are Debby and Ernesto.

The tropical Atlantic could potentially become calmer for a time after this week, but the season is not even a month old yet, and more storms will form throughout the remainder of the season.