Cowboys run-pass splits under center show disturbing predictability

“Line up and beat the guy in front of you,” was an old coaching saying from yesteryear. In the days prior to free agency, simply being better than the other guy was often good enough. It was a time when the haves dominated the have-nots and parity was almost nonexistent.

Today’s NFL is as much a game of strategy and deception as it is about talent. The margins are slimmer than ever before and often times coaching makes all the difference. It’s an area the Cowboys could stand to improve in 2024 as they look to get over the playoff hump in what could be Mike McCarthy’s last season as head coach.

McCarthy’s Cowboys are in the image of a previous era. They don’t rely heavily on screen passes, play-action, motion at-the-snap, or horizontal play-fakes like jet or orbital sweeps. They usually give what they show the defense. If they trot out 21, 22 or 13 personnel (multiple running back or tight end packages), they run the ball at an inordinate rate. It’s an act of transparency the defense can feast on. It swings the advantage to the defense and marks a major missed opportunity for McCarthy.

Playing in a West Coast, Air Coryell-hybrid offense, the Cowboys play a mix of shotgun and under center plays. Shotgun is the predominant attack but plays in which Prescott moves up under center represent a significant portion of the snaps.

Per PFF tracking, the Cowboys run the ball 62.89% of the time when under center. That pass rate was 12.16% below expected.

Defenses naturally think run when quarterbacks line up under center. It’s why play-action under center has consistently been fruitful across the NFL. But the Cowboys are just giving them what they are expecting. Rather than play fake for a pass, they run right into the defense that’s ready and waiting. It’s probably a contributing factor in their 28th ranked explosive play rate under center.

In all fairness, the Cowboys aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard passing from under center either.

An EPA/pass of -0.05 is far below their average EPA passing out of shotgun or empty situations. It’s even worse than their EPA/rush under center, which is -0.02. But it’s the transparency that’s the real problem here. The Cowboys are posting a negative EPA regardless of the play call and that’s likely because they are fairly obvious with their intentions.

Based on the numbers and trends, the Cowboys may want to dial down their under-center frequency in 2024. And when they do run those plays, mixing in play action and other play fakes would serve them well in their quest to be less transparent.