Summer of Soccer best bets: It's do or die for the USMNT

We always knew it would come to this, didn't we? One game. One 90-minute period to decide whether the U.S. Men's National Team is good enough to advance in the tournament it might soon regret hosting.

There is no one inventor of soccer — don't let patriotic Brits tell you otherwise. Dozens of cultures developed the game simultaneously before it coalesced into the sport we know and love today. There is no one "spiritual home" of it either. But if there were, it would probably be Uruguay, the small, oft-forgotten South American nation tucked under Argentina's arm like a ball being carried home from practice. Uruguay has a population of just 3.4 million people, but it's got two World Cup victories to its name and it's been responsible for some of the wildest soccer moments in recent memory. When the Uruguayan FA announced its lineup for the 2022 World Cup, it did so in a video proclaiming "Uruguay: somos el futbol." Uruguay: we are football. They were not exaggerating.

Though Uruguay is legendary on the international circuit, it tends to keep to itself in a way that other heavy hitters don't. You won't see Uruguay bragging about its playing style like Brazil does with its jogo bonito; Uruguay doesn't feel like it has to do any of that. When it arrives at tournaments like the World Cup or the Copa America it does so as a shadowy, largely unknown enterprise. You don't really know what you're going to get from it — you only know that it'll come at you with all the energy, intelligence and fire it's capable of delivering.

That balance of quiet confidence off the field and raging, never-say-die energy on it is the secret to Uruguay's success.  Locals call it garra charrua in honor of the native Charrua people from Uruguay's coast. "The garra charrua is something we're proud of, even if other people misunderstand it," former captain Diego Forlan once said . "It's like when you don't have that last breath but you always want to give more. Sometimes, in the last minute, against big teams, you never expect to have the chance to win, but there is that garra that everyone talks about in Uruguay."

World Cup winning pedigree, unpretentious knowledge of its own greatness and the inherent ability to fight until the last moment: check, check and check. If you're the USMNT, Uruguay is the absolute last team you want to face in a do-or-die situation. It doesn't really matter that Uruguay has already qualified for the knockouts; it'll take this match seriously, because it takes everything about soccer seriously.

But it's not all bad news. The USMNT and Uruguay played each other in a friendly back in 2022 and held each other to an even, thoughtful 0-0 draw. The two looked well-matched, and when you dig into it, it's easy to see why: the USMNT has its own soccer history and spirit that pairs beautifully with Uruguay's. Both played their best soccer in 1950. Both have an unshakeable national ethos — American optimism and garra charrua, respectively — powering their on-field decisions. And both tend to be underrated on the international stage. Underrated, that is, until their enthusiasm bursts through television screens from Lagos to London. Underrated until the rest of the world cannot look away.

One game. One 90 minute period. But if it had to be against anyone, we're so, so lucky it's against a team as brilliant an honorable as Uruguay.

Here's what we're eyeing as the USMNT meets its destiny against Uruguay in Kansas City:

The knife-edge nature of this rivalry. We mentioned that the USMNT and Uruguay drew 0-0 in their last meeting; that draw fit right in with the trend of their head-to-head record. In seven meetings, the USMNT and Uruguay have drawn four times. We think there's every chance they'll draw again, and are backing a tie game at +220 . (Given Uruguay's strong attack, we're inclined to back a scored draw at +333 , too.) Like the idea of a tie game but wooed by Uruguay's undeniable presence? Opt for a tie or Uruguay win double-chance bet at -188 instead.

A big night for the USMNT defense. Crystal Palace center-back Chris Richards has had a rough tournament so far — he doesn't look that comfortable in the USMNT defense and has struggled to reach the level of Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson. He has, however, been a fairly reliable tackler. He put in two successful tackles against Panama; we're backing him to make two or more against Uruguay at +162 .

The Premier League bet that won't die. Regular readers of this space will know that we spent much of the 2023-24 Premier League season hoping for a Darwin Nunez header — partially because the odds were so tasty and partially because he just seems like the kind of guy who should be scoring them every weekend. Nunez put in plenty of great headed goals for Liverpool that season, but he never quite did it when we thought he would. This is his moment: he's got a weak, short central defense and absolutely nothing to lose. Do it, Darwin. Score that headed goal of our dreams at +800 .

The USMNT meets its fate against Uruguay on Monday, July 1 at 8 p.m. ET. See you there!