Tellurian Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Tellurian (NYSEMKT: TELL) is a high-risk growth stock that only the most aggressive investors should be looking at. Much of the enthusiasm for the stock comes from the fact that it is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility. Much of the risk comes from the fact that it won't be operational until at least 2028.

Uncertainty about the company has led to the stock losing about 40% of its value over the last year alone, and far larger losses when compared to its all-time highs.

How should investors approach Tellurian stock: Buy, sell, or hold?

The argument for selling Tellurian stock

The following needs to be repeated: Tellurian is a risky investment, and only aggressive investors should consider buying it. If you are a conservative investor, you'll probably want to sell Tellurian if you own it. If you don't own it and you are a conservative investor, you probably shouldn't buy it. Tellurian's story is interesting, but there's a huge amount of work to be done before the company finishes building its proposed Driftwood LNG export facility in Louisiana.

Image source: Getty Images.

Huge capital investment projects are risky for any company. They are extra risky when that project is, basically, the only thing a company has going on. This is the situation for Tellurian at the moment; its entire existence is hanging on the successful completion of the proposed Driftwood project. There are two takeaways of note here.

First, if the company runs into problems, which aren't uncommon on big construction projects, it could end up never completing Driftwood. Second, Tellurian is going to be spending a huge sum of money to build Driftwood and will likely lose money at least until the project gets up and running in 2028 (at the earliest). That's probably going to be too much risk for conservative investors to take on, and perhaps even too much for investors willing to stomach moderate risks.

The argument for buying Tellurian stock

If you are the type of investor who is willing to take on high risks, however, Tellurian could be of interest. The ride from today until the 2028 projected completion could be a bumpy one, but LNG export facilities are important midstream assets that can throw off reliable cash flows (once they are up and running). That's why Berkshire Hathaway bought the one that Dominion Energy built. It is why Enbridge is building an LNG export project on the West Coast.

What's worth noting with Tellurian is that the company's project has the approvals it needs to keep moving forward at a time when the U.S. government has put a moratorium on the approval of new LNG facilities. That increases the value of Tellurian's project and it boosts the likelihood that it gets built as planned, though Tellurian will still need to spend huge sums to get it done.

On the money front, Tellurian recently sold some midstream assets to Aethon Energy Management. This will help Tellurian shore up its balance sheet . Equally important is that Aethon is in discussions to take some of Driftwood's LNG capacity. Getting the first customer lined up will help Tellurian get more customers.

So there are positives taking shape here that suggest Tellurian could be worth the risk, particularly when you consider that global demand for natural gas is projected to outstrip supply soon. Assuming that comes to pass, the U.S. will likely be a vital source of LNG, and export assets like Driftwood will be needed.

TELL data by YCharts

The argument for holding Tellurian stock

If you have owned Tellurian for a while, you are probably sitting on huge losses. If you can capture those losses to offset gains elsewhere in your portfolio you might want to consider doing so. Any notable recovery here is probably a few years away. That said, it looks like Tellurian is finally starting to gain a little traction as it works to build out its project. Selling now, as the company appears to be turning an important corner, might leave you regretting the move.

The key to sticking around, however, will still be your ability to handle risk, since Tellurian remains a high-risk investment. If you don't mind taking on the execution risk inherent in owning Tellurian at this stage in its lifecycle, then sticking around is probably a good idea.

The final call on Tellurian is really "it depends"

As with all investments, the buy, sell, or hold decision with Tellurian requires balancing the risks against the rewards. There is likely to be an attractive global market to serve with a U.S.-based LNG export facility. Despite having the required approvals, Tellurian's Driftwood project is still years away from completion. Getting from here to the expected 2028 completion date is likely to be a bumpy road. Only investors that can handle a rough ride should own the stock.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has positions in Dominion Energy and Enbridge. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway and Enbridge. The Motley Fool recommends Dominion Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .