Macron’s foolish snap election strategy

When French President Emmanuel Macron called for the snap elections, people thought he was crazy. The far-right party National Rally emerged ahead of Macron's party in the first round of voting that occurred on June 30. Now, ahead of the July 7 runoff elections , many in France are concerned about the future of the parliament.

In Sunday's first round of voting, Marine Le Pen's National Rally outpaced Macron's centrist alliance, gathering 34% of the vote, while Macron's party trailed with just 20%. Macron will remain in power until the end of 2027, regardless of what happens when the 50 million or so registered voters in France choose a new legislature.

If the second round of voting continues with Le Pen's party heading toward a parliamentary majority, Macron would have to name as his prime minister Jordan Bardella, National Rally's 28-year-old president. This system would require the two to share power in an awkward move that would likely derail many of Macron's more centrist initiatives.

Under the French system, the prime minister holds significant power over the domestic agenda in the country. Possible actions from Bardella include raising public spending, expelling more migrants, halting family reunification, reversing a planned gas price rise, and privatizing public TV and radio. Some other plans, including "national preference," could run into constitutional obstacles.

The impacts of a split government would be huge. Although the president would retain most control over foreign policy, measures such as aid to Ukraine could be in danger because parliament's backing is required for any financial assistance.

Did Macron expect to come out victorious? Macron's polling after he called for these elections on June 10 sank to historic lows on June 21. He was polling at 26% , down 6 points from May. These match historic lows from April 2023 and late 2018. Macron could have believed calling the snap election would draw voters out of apathy and force them to turn out for a more centrist party in the national election — to defeat the right wing. This call was naive. Whether it is political naivety or the willingness to give up power, Macron could not expect to win.

Macron's 2022 election to the French presidency should have showcased his lack of power and the reasons not to be so impulsive as to call a snap election. After all, he was the first president of France in nearly 20 years to be reelected. The Economist found that Macron is now the only sitting president with a governing majority since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958 to have been reelected by direct universal suffrage. This victory was only possible through a contentious two rounds of voting in which almost no one could tell any results from the first round. Then, he allied with other, more extreme parties to form a coalition government. Then, he let the immigration and economic crisis fester amid dropping poll numbers.

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Can he expect to limit damage and draw support to the center if he has little record of actually addressing the people's concerns? He justified it by saying, "Things are simple today: We have unnatural alliances at both extremes ... who will not be able to implement any program."

Macron also said one reason he had called early legislative elections was to prevent the far Right from winning the presidency in 2027. "I do not want to give the keys to power to the far Right in 2027," he told reporters. This, however, seems to fall to either his relentless optimism or terrifying naivety of the views of his past performance.