The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in history . Interestingly, it shares many similarities with another important election : 1968.
President Joe Biden now finds himself in a situation similar to former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s predicament in 1968. Johnson had lost the support of many in the Democratic Party, particularly due to his handling of the Vietnam War, while Biden’s support is wavering due to both his age and his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
College students staged anti-Vietnam demonstrations across the country, which have been mirrored by anti-Israel encampments on campuses today. In fact, the same building at Columbia University was occupied by rioters in both 1968 and 2024 on the exact same day of the calendar.
After determining he would be unable to win, Johnson announced that he was not running for reelection. In contrast, while Biden is facing increased pressure to step aside, he is nonetheless intent on staying in the race. If he does decide to drop out, however, it would result in a contested convention in the same city as 1968: Chicago.
The 1968 Democratic National Convention was an optics nightmare for the party as violent clashes between protesters and the police eventually resulted in confrontations on the convention floor itself. Already in 2024, some groups are planning protests outside the DNC.
Moreover, before Johnson stepped aside, he faced primary challenges from a member of Minnesota’s congressional delegation and Robert F. Kennedy. In Biden’s case, he faced primary challenges from a member of Minnesota’s congressional delegation and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Another key factor in the 1968 election was the strong third-party bid of George Wallace, who earned more than 13% of the popular vote. Kennedy Jr., who pivoted to a third-party run after his campaign as a Democrat failed, has polled in a similar range.
Finally, perhaps the strongest similarities between the 1968 election and the 2024 election are the remarkable political comebacks attempted by Richard Nixon and former President Donald Trump, who have long been compared due to their policy similarities and controversial last days in office, with Trump’s scandals likened to Watergate.
After Nixon narrowly lost the 1960 presidential election and the 1962 California gubernatorial election, it looked like his political career was over. However, he managed to secure the Republican nomination in 1968 and formed a new Republican coalition that helped him emerge victorious. Similarly, Trump secured the Republican nomination after narrowly losing the 2020 presidential election, and he is working on forging a new Republican coalition of his own.
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While 1968 was a triumphant victory for the GOP, Democrats continue to have nightmares about the race. In particular, the last-minute selection of Hubert Humphrey to be their party's nominee resulted in a total overhaul of the presidential primary system. His stunning defeat is presumably one of the main reasons why Biden is likely to remain the Democratic nominee despite internal and external pressure for him to step aside.
It remains to be seen if the parallels between 1968 and 2024 will play out in a similar manner, but the lessons from that election remain important.
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