Continuing to fight Hamas in Gaza, Israel is preparing for a separate war with the Lebanese Hezbollah . The Lebanon -based terrorist group and political entity has been engaged in a low-level conflict with Israel since the day following Hamas's Oct. 7 atrocities in Israel. Hezbollah's rocket and other weapons fire has forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate their homes in northern Israel.
Yet far greater escalation may soon follow. Having imposed significant damage on Hamas military capabilities, Israeli leaders believe they have earned the breathing room to refocus their gun sights on Hezbollah. While the Biden administration is attempting to mediate a peaceful resolution, the status quo is plainly unsustainable. Secretary of State Antony Blinken identified the problem on Monday, noting that Israel's "people don’t feel safe to go to their homes. Absent doing something about the insecurity, people won’t have the confidence to return."
What might that something look like?
One of two things: Either Hezbollah suspends its attacks on northern Israel or Israel will launch a ground offensive into southern Lebanon and attack Hezbollah from the air across Lebanon. The intent of the offensive would be to dismantle Hezbollah's firing capacity against northern Israel and establish a buffer zone sanitized of Hezbollah forces. That buffer zone would hopefully then allow Israelis in the country's north to return to their homes in relative security. The challenge for Israel is that Hezbollah retains a far more capable military force in terms of rockets, missiles, and other weapons than Hamas did on Oct. 8. A war between these two parties would be bloody and difficult for Hezbollah in particular but also for Israel.
The question for the United States, then, is how to respond to the growing risk of war.
The first interest is in bolstering contingency readiness for the evacuation of U.S. citizens from Lebanon and the reinforcement of the embassy in Beirut. To that end, the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit has been deployed as part of the USS Wasp-led amphibious ready group. This force includes three rifle companies, a light mechanized weapons company, and a number of F-35B strike fighter jets. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group is also being moved from its standard Pacific operating area to the Arabian Sea. It should arrive there in approximately 10 days but could then be quickly moved to the eastern Mediterranean if necessary.
Fortunately, Israel now has the means of conducting operations against Hezbollah without jeopardizing its security position against Hamas. That means the U.S. need not directly involve itself in any Israel-Hezbollah war in a way that may have been necessary last year. And that also matters because Israeli and U.S. strategic interests diverge in Lebanon.
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Israel's obvious priority is to end Hezbollah's threat to its northern border. And while the U.S. should support that interest politically, the U.S. priority in Lebanon is to maintain political stability in Beirut and avoid a conflict that might lead to Iranian/proxy attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East. The consequences of an Israel-Hezbollah war for Lebanon's already unstable domestic political situation are unclear but would certainly be unpleasant. If sectarian fighting reignites in Lebanon, the risk of other regional actors becoming involved in the conflict will increase. A humanitarian disaster and regional conflagration may follow. That concern means the U.S. should not be a party to an Israeli offensive unless Hezbollah or Iran decide to force the U.S. into that conflict.
In turn, the Biden administration should warn Iran and its proxies that if an Israel-Hezbollah war breaks out and if they then target U.S. interests, they and Hezbollah itself will be subject to U.S. military engagement. In the interim, the U.S. should prepare for evacuations and continue exerting pressure on Hezbollah and its sponsors to end attacks on Israeli civilians.
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