Ironing out the details: 4th of July Forecast

(SOUTHERN COLORADO) — As we head into the week, you might be wondering what’s going to happen weather-wise for the Fourth of July. For this specific forecast, there are still some questions as to whether we will see showers and thunderstorms, especially for the Pikes Peak Region, or if it is going to be dry, and that all depends on the track of a certain storm system.

We start with a wider look at the storm system in question:

On Thursday, July 4, forecast models show an area of low pressure that will be mainly tracking to the north and bringing storms to the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes region. However, the European model and the American model disagree on how far north the low pressure will travel and if it will eject energy into Colorado or not.

The European model as of Tuesday morning, July 2, shows that energy will come to Western Colorado, the Rockies, and the Pikes Peak Region on Thursday evening, which means conditions are favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop. However, the American model on Tuesday morning shows that low pressure will track too far north, leaving most of Southern Colorado Dry.

You can compare between the models below.

Once we get our bearings on the path of the storm, we drill down into our area for details:

As far as rain chances go, you can see that the European model (in green) shows showers and thunderstorms being possible for the Pikes Peak Region at 9 p.m. while the American model shows we remain dry.

What about seeing the fireworks?

As far as visibility for fireworks goes, meteorologists tend to look at moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere to determine cloud cover for fireworks viewing.

As you can see, the European model on the left shows that some moisture will appear in the lower levels of the atmosphere Thursday evening during most fireworks shows at 9 p.m., especially for parts of Teller County and western El Paso County. However, as you can probably already guess, our American model shows, there is no moisture.

The only thing all models can agree on is for the Southeastern Plains and Foothills, as of Tuesday morning, that conditions will remain dry for Independence Day. However, with dry conditions, that does bring up fire danger concerns. Southern Coloradoans are urged to be careful with any ignition sources, especially on July 4.

As with all forecasts, our models continue to compute data and update so there is a chance that the forecast could change. The FOX21 Storm Team will continue to keep you updated on all of our platforms. Stay tuned.

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