AST Weather Blog: Latest on Hurricane Beryl and what may happen when it reaches the Gulf

As of Tuesday afternoon, Hurricane Beryl is a strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum winds near 155 mph. and gusts up to 190 mph. The storm has already done incredible damage in the southwestern Caribbean. Below is a picture taken from inside the eye when it was a Category 5, shared by NOAA Hurricane Hunters.

But it’s still over 1,800 miles away from Arkansas. Is this something we need to pay attention to? The short answer is: Yes. Often when a tropical system gets into the western Gulf of Mexico with any potential of curving north, there is some potential for the impacts to move inland.

Models do suggest that Beryl will eventually move into the SW Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche this weekend, but that’s after it makes landfall over the Yucatan near Cancun or Tulum on Friday. This would cause it to weaken before reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

Then once it gets back over water, the question is: Does it re-strengthen or remain in a much weaker state?

Just based on sea surface temperatures in this part of the Gulf of Mexico, the water is warm enough to sustain a tropical system. But there has been enough activity in this part of the Gulf of Mexico to drop those temperatures a bit below normal–closer to the mid-80s. This gives us some hope that perhaps it will struggle to re-organize before its next landfall.

But if it turns north toward the Houston area, there is much warmer water off the coast there–closer to 90 degrees. If it spends much more time over these waters, it could strengthen a bit more.

As of now, it’s still too soon to determine how Beryl will behave at landfall–much less after it moves inland somewhere. That said, we’re monitoring all the latest trends and will continue to keep you updated in the coming days.

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