General election live: Party leaders battle for votes on eve of election as Tory minister predicts Labour landslide

2.10pm BST

Andrew Griffith , the science minister, was speaking on behalf of the Tories on Radio 4’s World at One. Asked if he agreed with Suella Braverman that it was all over for his party (see 7.48am ), he replied:

No, not at all. Nobody should be taking the British people for granted.

2.06pm BST

No criminal offences were committed by Reform UK activists campaigning for Nigel Farage who were filmed by an undercover journalist for Channel 4, Essex police said. The force said in a statement:

Having assessed the comments made during a Channel 4 news programme, and all other information available to us, we have concluded that no criminal offences have taken place.

2.03pm BST

How Sunak, Starmer and Davey have all been campaigning largely in what were safe Tory seats

Since day one of the election campaign, Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and Ed Davey have focused almost exclusively on visiting constituencies that are being defended by the Conservatives, PA Media reports. PA says:

This is perhaps not a surprise, given the Tories won a near-landslide of seats at the last election in 2019, many of which Labour and the Lib Dems are hoping to gain on 4 July.

But what is striking is the size of some of the Tory majorities in the places all three leaders have visited.

Rishi Sunak has so far held events in 54 different constituencies since the first full day of the campaign on 23 May, according to data compiled by PA.

Some 45 of these 54 seats are Conservative defences, based on notional results for the 2019 election that take into account the boundary changes that are in place this year.

The 45 Tory constituencies visited by Sunak include nine where his party is defending enormous notional majorities of more than 20,000, such as Hinckley & Bosworth in Leicestershire (22,851), Thirsk & Malton in North Yorkshire (23,337) and Honiton & Sidmouth in Devon (26,229).

Some 29 of the 45 seats have sizeable Tory majorities of over 10,000 and include places like Macclesfield in Cheshire, which has been won by the Conservatives at every general election since 1918; Banbury in Oxfordshire, won by the Tories at every election since 1922; and Stratford-on-Avon in Warwickshire, won by the Conservatives at every election since 1950.

Meanwhile Keir Starmer and Ed Davey have campaigned in Tory-held constituencies that need huge swings in the share of the vote to change hands, such as Cannock Chase in Staffordshire, where the notional Conservative majority is 19,879 and which Labour needs a 21.5-percentage point swing to gain; and Chichester in West Sussex, where the Tory majority is 19,622 and the Lib Dems need a swing of 19.3 percentage points.

By the end of Wednesday, Starmer is due to have visited 57 different seats during the campaign, including 43 being defended by the Conservatives; while Davey will have clocked up 49 different constituencies, of which 41 are Tory defences.

1.58pm BST

If, as expected, Keir Starmer becomes prime minister on Friday, he will quickly be pitched in to international summitry. He will go to Washington next week for a Nato summit, and a week later he will host the European Political Community conference of European leaders at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire.

But one person who may not be at the EPC meeting is the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.

The EPC, previously held in Prague, Moldova and Granada, is the brainchild of Emmanuel Macron and designed to create an informal summit to help bind and align EU and non-EU countries including the UK.

But the date, 18 July, clashes with the first sitting of the new European parliament and draft schedules show Von der Leyen will be presenting her political programme and consulting with political parties.

1.51pm BST

UK will be mostly dry for polling day – but strong gusts forecast for Scotland

Polling day tomorrow is likely to be dry for most of the UK with only occasional showers in the north of England, some heavier in Scotland , Jamie Grearson reports.

Related: UK will be mostly dry for polling day – but strong gusts forecast for Scotland

1.07pm BST

Farage claims return of Boris Johnson won't have helped Tories

It is assumed that Boris Johnson might appeal to former Tory voters who are inclined to vote for Reform UK. But, as the Telegraph reports , Nigel Farage , the Reform UK leader, has claimed that Johnson’s appearance at a campaign event last night (see 10.48am ) won’t help the Tories. Farage told TalkTV:

[Johnson] is the man with the big majority. He is the man that opened the door to mass migration. He is the guy that brought in loopy net zero policies.

He is the man that couldn’t tell the truth to the House of Commons. He won’t have done them any good at all.

12.55pm BST

New government will need emergency measures to avert crisis in prisons, says thinktank

One of the Sun’s leading articles today says, if Labour does win, the first crisis it will face could be caused by jail overcrowding. Labour should start building new prisons immediately, it says.

The Institute for Goverment has published a report on just this topic today. Like the Sun, it says the crisis will hit Labour immediately, because jails in England and Wales are just days away from being full. But, unlike the Sun, it says the new government will have to create space by ensuring fewer people get locked up. Here are some of the options it recommends.

-Lowering the point of automatic release for most offenders (not serious violent or sexual offenders) from 50% through their sentence to 40-45% - this option is likely to be necessary to deliver the sufficient space in the available time even if other options are also used.

-Introducing a queuing system for immediate custodial sentences, so that lower-risk offenders do not go to prison straightaway but begin their sentence under house arrest until a prison space becomes available.

-Allowing sentences up to three years – up from two – to be suspended, meaning the offender does not have to go to prison as long as they do not commit any further offences and abide by any conditions attached.

-Reducing or removing supervision post-release for offenders serving sentences under 12 months would substantially cut the number of recalls.

12.44pm BST

Evening Standard backs Labour - but the Sun and the Times still on the fence

The Evening Standard has endorsed Labour.

But two other London-based newspapers have conspicuously failed to endorse any party (yet?). There has been considerable interest in what the Sun and the Times, which are both owned by Rupert Murdoch, might do. In the past the Sun in particular sought to make its endorsement a big political story, and under Murdoch it has always backed the winner.

But it has not come down on one side or the other during the campaign, and today its leader articles barely mention the election. The Times has published a long leader which does not endorse the Tories, but which does largely praise Rishi Sunak. It says Labour will win because “the Herculean task of restoring [the Conservative party’s] reputation for competence and probity was beyond him.”

12.28pm BST

Laurence Fox, the former actor and leader of the Reclaim party, has urged its supporters to vote for Reform UK in order the maximise the loss suffered by the Conservative party.

While Reclaim’s support is negligible, it has been the recipient of a large amount of funding by the former Tory donor Jeremy Hosking, who gave to £1,153,300 in donations to the party in 2021. For a period, the former Tory Andrew Bridgen was a Reclaim MP.

Fox, who joined the far-right activist Tommy Robinson on stage during a St George’s Day event in central London in April, used an email to supporters to praise Nigel Farage for “energising” the campaign and showing up the other political leaders as “dull or cringeworthy”. He went on:

I was keen to write to you and say that I believe Reclaim’s interests are being unequivocally furthered by Nigel in this election. As a result, I am delighted to tell you I am an enthusiastic voter for Reform on Thursday.

12.22pm BST

Sunak claims Labour might lose majority if 'just 130,000 people' were to vote differently

Rishi Sunak has dismissed claims that the election is all over, arguing that the votes of just 130,000 people could be enough to deprive Labour of a majority.

Speaking on ITV’s This Morning, where it was put to him that Mel Stride has already, in effect, conceded the election is over (see 8.43am ), Sunak replied:

He wasn’t quite saying that. Actually, you know, what Mel was doing was warning of what a very large Labour majority, unchecked, would mean for people.”

I’m fighting hard for every vote. Here’s what I’d say … We just saw some analysis which showed that just 130,000 people can make the difference in this election. So, everyone watching who thinks, ‘oh, this is all a foregone conclusion’, it’s not.

The Tories have repeatedly claimed that just 130,000 votes could change the results in more than 100 constituencies. They say this would mark the “difference between a supermajority and no majority.”.

They justify this claim by citing an analysis published by the Times last month. Using figures from a YouGov MRP poll, the Times said:

Sir Keir Starmer is on course for a landslide victory, but Labour’s vote is so narrowly distributed that even a small swing could have dramatic consequences in terms of the number of seats the party wins, with one shadow cabinet minister warning that the election was “not a done deal”.

Just 34,000 swing voters in key seats could halve Labour’s projected 200 majority, according to analysis of polling data. Labour would lose its notional majority entirely if only 132,000 voters in the tightest races opted for the next-placed party.

But the problem with analysis like this is that you cannot shift votes in key seats without also shifting votes nationally, and so in practice far more people need to change their minds. After the 2017 election Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters argued that he was just 2,227 votes away from being able to form a government. Experts dismissed the claim ; nationally, the Tories were ahead of Labour by around 700,000 votes.

The Times analysis said “it would have taken 206,000 voters to have changed their ballot in 2019 for Boris Johnson to have lost 100 seats”. But nationally, in that election, Johnson was ahead of Labour by about 3.7m votes.

Updated at 12.24pm BST

11.55am BST

In his appearance on ITV’s This Morning, Rishi Sunak was also asked if he had a favourite meal that he would choose if he has to have a final meal at No 10 later this week. Rather surprisingly, he replied:

Well, my favourite meal generally is sandwiches. You know, I’m a big sandwich person.

But, actually, I always have on election night – we have a bit of a tradition, my local butcher, one of my local butchers called Kitson’s in Northallerton High Street, always do a special election pie.

Sunak has never been seen as a great lover of food. He used to fast on Mondays, although he recently admitted that he has had to give that up because the election campaign is too exhausting.

11.47am BST

Sunak rejects claim Tory attack on Starmer over wanting to spend Friday night with family disrespectful to Jewish people

Rishi Sunak was on ITV’s This Morning earlier, where he was talking about reports that the Conservative party has offended some Jewish figures by attacking Keir Starmer for saying that, if he becomes PM, he will trying to continue his habit of keeping Friday evenings free for family meals.

Starmer has suggested this is primarily about ensuring that he is able to spend time with his children. But his wife is of Jewish heritage and he has also said that part of the reason Fridays are special for the family is because it is a time they often set aside for family prayer , in accordance with Shabbat.

Sunak dismissed the notion Tory criticism of this was disrespectful to people of Jewish faith. Asked about the row, he said:

I think what Keir was saying he was with his kids on a Friday night out watching cheerleading or kickboxing rather than doing that. But the point is this, everyone’s going to do this job in a different way …

One of the things I’ve spoken about a lot is that doing this job means I’m not as good as dad, I’m not as good a husband, as I would love to be, and that comes with the territory of being in public service and having the responsibility to be prime minister, to do a great job for everyone who’s watching.

Updated at 11.55am BST

11.26am BST

Several polling companies will be releasing their final polls today. This is from Techne UK.

11.12am BST

John Swinney claims Labour does not need any Scottish MPs to win election

John Swinney , the Scottish first minister and SNP leader, has said that a Labour victory at the election is inevitable and that Keir Starmer won’t need any extra MPs from Scotland to win. Speaking to the BBC, he said that was why Scottish people should vote SNP.

Labour doesn’t need any Scottish MPs to win this election. For Scotland, do we want to have Labour MPs going from Scotland who will just do what they’re told by Keir Starmer? Or do they want SNP MPs who will stand up for Scotland, protect the Scottish interest and campaign against the austerity that the Labour party is going to impose on Scotland?

10.48am BST

Starmer says having Boris Johnson campaigning for Tories just reminds voters how 'chaotic and divided' they have been

Keir Starmer has also said he was not worried by Boris Johnson’s surprise appearance at a Tory campaign event last night, saying the former PM just illustrated how “chaotic and divided” his party had been.

Speaking to reporters in Wales, and asked if he was worried that Johnson might encourage a late surge in Tory votes, Starmer replied:

No, I’m not worried in the slightest, having argued for six weeks that they’re chaotic and divided, to bring out exhibit A, with 24 hours to go, just vindicated the argument I’ve been making.

I think Rishi [Sunak] started campaigning with [David] Cameron at his side, I don’t think that worked so very well. Then he borrowed Liz Truss’ playbook and put unfunded commitments in his manifesto, and then he wheeled out Boris Johnson last night, it makes my case for me.

I’m only assuming that some time about lunchtime today there’ll be a joint press conference with Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak on economic stability for the country going forward, I suspect that’s what’s coming next.

This is what John Crace wrote about Johnson’’s speech in his Guardian sketch.

There was a helicopter hanging from the ceiling above where a crowd of 400 people were gathered. Half of them security guards. The Saigon jokes wrote themselves. Sometimes I think the Tories are running the campaign for my benefit …

Eventually the Govester fell over, to be replaced by … Johnson . It’s almost as if the Tories want to lose this election by even more than predicted. Who to bring out but the man the Tories themselves had concluded was unfit to govern? The man most of the country are happy to forget. The audience went wild. “Boris, Boris”, they cheered. Louder than for Rish!. Natch.

What followed was classic Boris. He really doesn’t care. He appears to hate Rish! and so the only reason he would bother to appear was because he wanted to dance on Sunak’s grave.

He said he had been working tirelessly throughout the election. By going on holiday. He looked terrible. Wherever he’s been, it’s done him the world of harm. He rambled on about his own achievements for about 10 minutes. Not a word of praise for Rish!. The two did not appear to even return a glance with one another. Let alone shake hands. He ended by saying that Starmer would not stand up to Putin. It would have been laughable if it hadn’t been so tragic.

10.30am BST

Starmer claims Tories talking up chances of Labour landslide as 'voter suppression' tactic

Keir Starmer has accused the Tories of talking up the chances of a Labour majority as a “voter suppression” tactic.

Asked to respond to what Mel Stride said this morning about Labour being on course for a record majority (see 8.43am) , Starmer replied:

It is more of the same. It’s really voter suppression. It’s trying to get people to stay at home rather than go out and vote.

I say, if you want change, you have to vote for it. I want people to be part of the change.

I know there are very close constituencies across the country. I don’t take anything for granted. I respect the voters and I know that we have to earn every vote until 10 o’clock tomorrow night and we will do that.

Voter suppression is a term used to describe tactics designed to stop supporters of rival parties turning out to vote. It can cover legal and relatively normal activities, like claiming the result is a foregone conclusion, although in some countries , like the US, far more sinister versions of this approach have been used.

9.53am BST

Keir Starmer is visiting Wales, Scotland and England today. At his first stop in Camarthenshire he stressed that many voters were still undecided. This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby .

Starmer in Wales: “There are a lot of undecided voters, still lots of constituencies that will come down to a few 100 votes that’ll make the difference & people need convincing… to vote for change” > told by one figure there at least 60-70 seats that could still go either way

9.48am BST

Is there such a thing as a supermajority?

A reader asks:

In UK election (sorry I’m from Australia) what is meant by a supermajority and why does it matter?

When Conservative politicians talk about a “supermajority”, they are just using the word to mean a very big majority (anything over 150 would reasonably count). In the British political system, a supermajority is not a real constitutional benchmark.

But in some countries a supermajority (such as two-thirds) is required for some types of constitutional change and the Tories (and the pro-Tory papers, which have adopted the phrase with enthusiasm) seem to be using the phrase repeatedly because, in the minds of some voters, it conveys the impression that a Keir Starmer government would have some special power to rig the system in its favour.

It wouldn’t, but it would not need such a power anyway; in the UK, a government with a decent majority can introduce sweeping changes relatively easily.

There are some minor exceptions. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a government needed two thirds of MPs to vote for an early election. But that law has now been abolished. And, as James Ball from the New European explains here , if Labour wanted to change the royal charter for press regulation, passed under the coalition but ignored by most big newspapers, it would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons.

9.35am BST

Munira Wilson has defended Ed Davey’s decision to run an election campaign dominated by outdoor adventure photo opportunities, telling LBC the Lib Dem leader had struck a balance between “really serious issues” and “not taking himself too seriously, which I think politicians too often do.”

Asked if stunts like paddleboarding and bungee jumping had worked, Wilson, the party’s education spokersperson, said :

Well, we’re all talking about it and we are talking about the issues. I think he’s really taken himself not very seriously to shine a spotlight on serious issues.

She said Davey had highlighted issues like health, social care, sewage in rivers and seas, and the cost of living crisis.

9.26am BST

Labour condemns harassment of its candidates and in pro-Palestinian areas

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, has condemned the harassment of Labour candidates and canvassers, amid reports of intimidation in pro-Palestinian areas across the country, Kiran Stacey reports.

Related: Labour condemns harassment of its candidates and in pro-Palestinian areas

9.11am BST

Braverman attacks Sunak over Tories continuing to take cash from Frank Hester after racist comments row

There is more evidence of the fact that the Tories have, in practice, conceded the general election in the Daily Telegraph, where Suella Braverman , the former home secretary, has kicked off the inquest into what went wrong. As Helen reported in an earlier post (see 7.48am ), Braverman’s main argument is voters have abandoned the Tories because they failed to “to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years”.

But, in a passage that slightly undermines her “woke” argument, Braverman also criticises the Conservatives for continuing to accept money from Frank Hester after the Guardian revealed that he had made comments about Diane Abbott, at a private meeting with staff, that were widely condemned as racist.

Braverman says:

Reform demonstrably failed to vet its candidates properly and these people should be nowhere near public life. I’ve been on the receiving end of racism myself and it’s right that the PM called it out. But cries of hurt and anger look less powerful when the Conservative Party was perfectly happy to take the money from Frank Hester . Remarks about hating black women were glossed over in the name of filling our party coffers. I don’t follow the logic. Nor do the voters. Whatever “the smartest men in the room” might privately think, the public are not in fact mugs.

Most Tories condemned what Hester said, but hardly any of them said the party should stop taking money from him. (They justified accepting his donations on the grounds that Hester apologised, even though he just apologised for being offensive, not accepting that his words were racist.) Braverman is probably the first senior figure in the party to make this point. It is intended as a direct criticism of Sunak, whose allies regularly describe him as “the smartest man in the room”.

8.43am BST

Labour likely to win with 'largest majority this country has ever seen', Tory cabinet minister Mel Stride claims

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Helen Sullivan.

Mel Stride , the work and pensions secretary, has been the lead voice for the Conservative party on the morning broadast round during the election, but no one would claim that he is the most exciting politician in Britain. Today, though, he said something very striking. Election concessions normally come at around 4am on Friday morning, but on the Today programme Stride delivered what sounded very much like a formal concession of defeat. He told the programme:

I totally accept that, where the polls are at the moment, means that tomorrow is likely to see the largest Labour landslide majority, the largest majority that this country has ever seen. Much bigger than 1997, bigger even than the National government in 1931.

What, therefore, matters now is what kind of opposition do we have, what kind of ability to scrutinise government is there within parliament.

This is a huge claim. And it is an exaggerated one; the National government in 1931 had a majority of 492, which not even the wildest MRP poll is predicting this time round. But the mainstream expectation from pollsters is that Labour will have a bigger majority on Friday than Tony Blair did in 1997 (179). Last night the polling firm Survation said Labour was “99% certain to win more seat than in 1997”.

Of course, Stride is not saying this because he wants to provide Today listeners with impartial analysis. It is an escalated version of the Tory plan to talk up the prospect of a Labour “supermajority” and it has two aims: first, to encourage people worried about the prospect of a Labour majority to vote Tory; and, second (and perhaps more importantly – there are more people in this group), to encourage people who are not passionately anti-Labour to think they can safely stay at home tomorrow.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on X (Twitter). I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use X; I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

8.22am BST

The Today programme’s Mishal Husain asks Pat McFadden, Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator, how Labour would work with a far right government in France on small boats, if Le Pen is elected.

“It’s for other countries to elect their leaders, I’m focussed on our own election” he says.

“It’s an international problem and we have to work with whoever gets elected”, he says.

Asked if he accepts it will be a “serious challenge”, he says there will be “many serious challenges”.

Updated at 8.22am BST

8.19am BST

The Today programme’s Mishal Husain asks McFadden , Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator, when people can expect to feel their circumstances have changed.

McFadden talks about the six first steps, but despite Husain’s prompting, doesn’t give a timeframe.

He believes in “under promise and over deliver”, but he doesn’t commit to a time frame.

8.16am BST

Pat McFadden: I’ve had boiled eggs that have lasted longer than the Tory 'show of unity'

Pat McFadden , Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator, criticised the “show of unity” said to be displayed within the Conservative Party when former prime minister Boris Johnson appeared at a rally on Tuesday night –and commented on Suella Braverman ’s article in the Telegraph.

McFadden told Times Radio: “The show of unity, I’ve had boiled eggs that have lasted longer than this show of unity.

“Almost before he (Mr Johnson) was finished speaking, we had Suella Braverman in The Telegraph saying that it had all been a terrible mess. I think maybe that is the Conservatives’ problem, is that it is all quite late for Boris to now be throwing his weight behind a prime minister, when, I think - to borrow a phrase from Northern Ireland - even the dogs in the street know there’s not a lot of love lost there.”

Asked if he would “fear” going up against Mr Johnson as a campaigner or prime minister more than Sunak, he told the programme:

“I think Boris destroyed his credibility through the whole ‘partygate’ and destruction of standards in public life.”

He claimed that “people saw through the act a little bit” and realised in elected government “they want to know what the sense of direction is going to be”.

8.11am BST

Labour slips behind SNP in new poll

Labour has slipped behind the SNP days before election day, a new poll suggests.

PA reports that a survey by Savanta for The Scotsman suggests 31% of Scots could vote Labour on Thursday, three points down on the last poll, while support for the SNP is unchanged at 34%.

According to analysis from Professor John Curtice , Labour, which won just one seat north of the border in the 2019 election, is on course for 22 Scottish MPs while the SNP would keep 24 seats.

The poll, carried out between 28 June and 2 July, suggests the Conservatives are on 15%, up one point, while the Liberal Democrats are at 9%, up two points on the last poll earlier in June.

The latest poll of 1,083 Scottish adults found 6% said they would back Reform UK, no change since the last poll, while the Greens were up one point at 3%, and 2% said they would vote for other parties.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said:

Our final Scottish voting intention before 4 July suggests the SNP is ahead of Labour, showing a modest improvement and potentially blunting their losses on election night.

If our results were reflected on polling day, John Swinney ’s election as SNP leader looks like it will have come just in the nick of time.

That being said, Labour’s efficient vote, in particular around the central belt, will still mean it’s likely going to be a very good evening for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer .

Their majority is no longer dependent on Scotland, but they’ll want to squeeze the SNP as much as they can.”

8.02am BST

On BBC Radio Four, Mel Stride was asked whether he thinks public services are better than they were in 2010.

“Yes, I think many of them absolutely are, despite Covid and the pressures that we faced with inflation, because of the war in Ukraine, etc,” he said.

Asked whether he had accepted that the Tories had lost the election, the Work and Pensions Secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I have accepted that where the polls are at the moment - and it seems highly unlikely that they are very, very wrong, because they’ve been consistently in the same place for some time - that we are therefore tomorrow highly likely to be in a situation where we have the largest majority that any party has ever achieved.”

Updated at 8.17am BST

7.59am BST

We're on the brink of a Labour landslide, says Tory minister

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride has just told Times Radio, “there will be plenty of time” for “post-mortems” of the Conservatives’ performance after polling day, as well as “where the party goes in the future”.

He suggested his party was the only one that could “hold this (Labour) government to account” as he repeated Tory warnings of a “supermajority”.

He said “we are right on the brink of a very perilous situation” with a “very weak and marginalised opposition”.

Asked if he thought there was anything the Conservatives could have done during the campaign to increase support, Mr Stride told Times Radio:

Tempted though I am to come up with all sorts of speculations on this, I think we need to get through and out the other side of the General Election tomorrow, and then there will be plenty of time for us to do post-mortems and dissect what should or shouldn’t have been done in the past, or importantly where the party goes in the future.

…

We’re on the brink, probably, of the largest landslide we’ve ever seen in this country ... what we have to have is some balance within our parliament.

…

I think we’re right on the brink of a very perilous situation.

Updated at 8.18am BST

7.55am BST

Survation poll 99% certain of Labour landslide

A forecast by polling company Survation shows Labour winning 484 of the 650 seats in parliament, far more than the 418 won by the party’s former leader Tony Blair in his famous 1997 landslide win and the most in its history.

The poll of 34,559 people predicts Conservatives will win just 64 seats, which would be the fewest since the party was founded in 1834.

Labour is on course to win around 484 seats, according to the poll, more than it did when Tony Blair took office in 1997.

The polling company says a Labour landslide is “99% certain”.

7.48am BST

Suella Braverman: 'It's over'

Former home secretary Suella Braverman has urged the Conservative Party to “read the writing on the wall” and “prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition”.

Writing in The Telegraph , Braverman says victory should no longer be the goal for the Tories.

“Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition,” she writes.

“One needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.”

Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage ’s Reform UK.

It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.

The critics will cite Boris [Johnson], Liz [Truss], Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.

The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.

We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”

Braverman says the Tories need “a searingly honest post-match analysis”, “because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good or having a chance to redeem it in due course.

“Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.”

Updated at 8.08am BST

7.42am BST

Thursday’s general election looks likely to be a historic pivot: one of those long-remembered moments when the established order at Westminster is swept away by what Jim Callaghan , the victim of one such shift in 1979, called a “sea change in politics”.

Yet as Guardian reporters fanned out across the UK during the campaign to spend time talking to voters and non-voters in 15 varied constituencies for the Path to power series, they found precious little hope that things will be different come 5 July.

Every constituency had its own particular concerns that bubbled up repeatedly in conversation: in Waveney Valley it was unwanted pylons , in Burnley it was the Gaza conflict and in Clacton it was immigration .

But several common threads run through much of the reporting, forming a dark narrative about the state of Britain and its people as Labour prepares to take power.

Everywhere reporters went, the infrastructure that makes up everyday life, from GP surgeries to libraries to roads, has been eroded by more than a decade of underinvestment:

Related: Hope in short supply: what our election reporters found out as they travelled the UK

7.32am BST

Can Starmer keep his family out of the spotlight?

Victoria Starmer joined Starmer on stage at the launch of Labour’s campaign, but has otherwise rarely been seen on the trail. Keir Starmer has said that if he’s elected, “she’s absolutely going to carry on working, she wants to and she loves it. It’s also good for me because it gives me an insight into the NHS.”

The Guardian’s Gaby Hinsliff , interviewed by Rupert Neate in today’s First Edition , says:

It’s 2024, I do not care who the PM is married to it shouldn’t matter,” she says. “We shouldn’t be talking about it; it only matters if there is a conflict of interest. I don’t take my husband to work, and I can’t think why anyone else should have to.”

“Grazia readers have moved on…They expect to see female politicians interviewed in their own right and in their professional capacity. If a leader can’t find a way to make themselves relatable without a spouse, perhaps they shouldn’t be a leader. It was also sad that Theresa May felt she had to explain why she didn’t have children, and disappointing that Andrea Leadsom [who challenged May for the leadership in 2016] suggested that having children made her a better choice to be prime minister. We should have moved beyond all this.”

The Starmers are fiercely protective of their children’s privacy.

“The degree to which they have kept their children out of [the spotlight] so far is impressive, and not something a PM has tried before,” Hinsliff says. “I really respect them for it, and wish them the best of luck trying to preserve it. But it is going to be difficult.”

Rishi Sunak has mostly kept his children out of the public eye, but they have been seen at some events including a street party on Downing Street to celebrate the King’s coronation, and he posted a photo of them on Instagram during his bid for the Tory party leadership in 2022. He also described them as “the experts of [the climate crisis] in my household”.

Updated at 8.05am BST

7.23am BST

Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal

The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.

Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.

After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw , said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.

He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”

Antoniw said the practical details of how a law to tackle lying would work would need to be worked out and he called for cross-party cooperation.

Related: Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal

Updated at 8.05am BST

7.18am BST

Parties pitch for votes on final day of the campaign

With just one sleep to go, here is how party leaders are spending their last day before voting day – and the messages they’ll be trying to drive home:

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will end his campaign trail in the South East. He has used th the word ‘supermajority’ in three tweets in the last hour. As in stop the Labour / tax-raising supermajority.

He has shared his fears of a Labour “supermajority” and said in an overnight statement: “If you are worried about an unchecked, unaccountable Labour government you can stop that by offering us your support so we can stand up for you and be your voice in the next Parliament.”

In a marathon final leg of his tour, Labour leader Keir Starmer will speak to voters in England, Scotland and Wales.

“We’re out in constituencies where we haven’t necessarily won before, because we think that many people are disillusioned with what they’ve seen in the last 14 years,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

“We’re a changed Labour Party and we’re constantly putting our case forward, still smiling, still with a spring in our step that we’re probably the only positive campaign left now.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey will hit the road again to round off his stunt-packed campaign.

There is no time to slip into a Dryrobe and warm up after surf lessons on the Cornish coast, because party chiefs have several stops lined up on Sir Ed’s final pre-vote tour of southern England.

Wrapping up his party’s thread on care, which he has spoken about several times on the campaign trail, Davey said: “Throughout this campaign, I’ve been so moved by all the people I’ve spoken to or who have got in touch to discuss their experiences caring for loved ones.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will take another trip to the Essex seaside constituency which he is contesting. Survation pollsters have said Clacton is the only constituency where Reform UK has a confident lead, but they could take 16 seats at an “upper end” estimate.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney has told voters some seats will be won or lost “by only a handful of votes”.

In his final pitch, he said: “Be certain about one thing - your vote will matter. It could make all the difference.”

Updated at 7.19am BST

7.00am BST

This morning's front pages

It has just gone 7am: let’s look at today’s stop stories. With 24 hours to go until polls open, the Guardian leads with Keir Starmer accusing the Conservatives of desperate tactics amid claims that Tory criticism of his defence of family time was insensitive and had antisemitic undertones .

The Times has Boris Johnson saying a Labour landslide would be “pregnant with horrors”:

The i : Prisons crisis for new government on day one

The Financial Times leads with water groups facing lawsuits, but also carries the interesting headline, “Rich offload assets as concerns mount over Labour’s capital gains tax agenda”.

The Independent : The final poll - Tories brace for wipeout

The Daily Mirror : Is it coming home? 14 years of hurt never stopped us dreaming

The Daily Express : Rishi: Your vote counts, your voice counts… please use it wisely

The Daily Mail : Boris and Rishi unite to stop Starmergeddon

The Daily Record carries a letter from Starmer saying “Let’s send a Labour government to Westminster with Scotland at its beating heart”:

The Yorkshire Post : ‘Part-time’ attacks on Starmer ‘must stop’

Finally, the Daily Star with an endorsement from Kim Wilde for Count Binface:

6.48am BST

Jewish figures criticise ‘stigmatising’ Tory attack on Starmer family time

Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of desperate tactics amid claims that Tory criticism of his defence of family time was insensitive and had antisemitic undertones.

Ben Quinn , Peter Walker and Kiran Stacey report:

With Rishi Sunak embarking on a marathon day of campaigning, beginning with a pre-dawn visit to a distribution centre and closing with a late-night rally, Tory ministers and aides sought to contrast these efforts with what they termed Starmer’s “part-time” approach.

As an increasingly personal election campaign neared its end, the Conservatives pushed out “final warnings” about what they said a massive Labour majority would mean for taxes, migration and other policy areas.

Downing Street chiefs believe the criticism of Starmer for saying he would maintain his current habit of trying to spend time with his wife and children after 6pm on Fridays “pretty well come what may” has resonated with voters.

However, it has sparked an angry backlash, with senior Jewish figures saying the decision to target such a culturally significant time of the week – Starmer’s wife, Victoria, comes from a Jewish family – was ill-judged and deeply unfair.

“I would have thought to anybody it’s blindingly obvious that a Friday night is quite important in some religions and faiths,” Starmer told reporters during a campaign stopover in Derbyshire.

Calling the attacks “laughably pathetic”, the Labour leader said his comments in a radio interview the day before had simply been to set out how he tried to keep Friday evenings aside for his family and would if elected prime minister, adding: “But I know very well it’s going to be really difficult to do it.”

Starmer said the aim was to create “protected time” for his children, his wife and her father. “Obviously her dad’s side of the family is Jewish, as people will appreciate, and we use that for family prayers – not every Friday, but not infrequently.

“That doesn’t mean I’ve never had to work on a Friday, of course it doesn’t. Plenty of times I haven’t been able to do it, but I try to protect that time, I’d like to try and protect it in the future.”

Related: Jewish figures criticise ‘stigmatising’ Tory attack on Starmer family time

Updated at 8.06am BST

6.38am BST

Zadie Smith on hope after 14 years of the Tories

Zadie Smith has written a long piece for the Guardian this morning on the hope for real change –and a return to the sort of free, functional healthcare and education she once boasted about to Americans – after 14 years of Tory rule:

You should think of yourself (I said to myself) as something like the Ancient Mariner, just repeating over and over your tale of woe, in the hope that the next time the big bright bird of potential equity flies past the ship of state, we might remember what it looks like, and what it can do, and not let any Tories or neoliberals rush up on to the deck to shoot it down.

This Ancient Mariner metaphor stood me in pretty good stead until I settled in the US, around 2010, returning 10 years later to a Britain I barely recognised. At this point, I became Rip Van Winkle. The list of things that have boggled my mind in the past four years is too long to recount here, but the final straw came just a few weeks ago, while I was washing up. The radio was on. A government spokesperson was extolling the virtues of conscription. Where else (asked the spokesperson) can people of different classes and races and genders meet each other on a more or less equal footing and pursue a common goal? Where else in modern-day Britain can community be fostered and encouraged, and people allowed a space in which their human capacities, whatever they may be, can flourish? Where else, I ask you, where else ?

I couldn’t work out if this spokesperson was so dense that he truly couldn’t think of an alternative answer to his own query, or if this was one of those very unfunny comedy skits you sometimes find yourself listening to when your hands are otherwise occupied with soap suds. But no: he was 100% serious. The thought that a well-funded state school would provide all of the above had truly never occurred to him. And then I realised: oh Jesus, if things carry on as they are, one day he’ll be right.

Related: ‘Here comes the sun’: Zadie Smith on hope, trepidation and rebirth after 14 years of the Tories

6.28am BST

Gordon Brown: Use this election to reject the Farage version of Britain

Former PM and Labour leader Gordon Brown , in an opinion piece for the Guardian, has urged voters to, “reject the Farage version of Britain and to get our real country back, and to show that greatness comes from standing tall in defence of our principles. To show that greatness comes from standing tall and moving together in defence of your culture, your history and your values.”

Related: Use this election to reject the Farage version of Britain. Let’s get our country back | Gordon Brown

6.20am BST

Even a small number of votes for Reform UK will see the SNP handed seats in Scotland, according to the Conservatives.

The party has continued its warnings against its traditional voters defecting to Nigel Farage ’s party on the eve of polling day.

Opinion polls indicate the SNP and Labour are engaged in a two-way race north of the border, with seat projections suggesting the Tories may hold on to the same number of seats they won in the previous election.

In recent days, the party has urged Scottish voters not to shift to Reform.

Party chairman Craig Hoy said:

Many seats in Scotland are a straight contest between the SNP and Scottish Conservatives. In those key seats, no other party can win. Reform, Labour and the Lib Dems are simply too far behind. Even a small number of votes for Reform could lead to big wins for the SNP.”

Despite polling suggesting a Labour surge, Hoy appeared to suggest it is his party that can inflict a defeat on the SNP.

“The opportunity is within our grasp to hand the SNP their worst election defeat in more than a decade, but just a few people choosing to vote Reform could put all that at risk,” he added.

“In key seats up and down Scotland, only a vote for the Scottish Conservatives can beat the SNP and get the focus on to the issues that really matter to you.”

Updated at 8.06am BST

6.15am BST

Across the market towns of Britain the battle for the soul of the right is fierce

As the traders pack up under the striped awnings of the market stalls in the centre of Alford, east Lincolnshire , Matthew Warner is loading balls of wool from his family shop into the back of his car.

Warner, a father of two, is feeling a serious strain on the family finances from fuel prices and childcare, and his wife cannot work full-time hours as a nurse because of the costs. A longtime Tory voter, the 33-year-old is still undecided on who he will vote for on Thursday, but he says he is now attracted by Nigel Farage’s Reform party, who are making significant inroads in seats like this.

Alford is in the heart of one of the safest Tory constituencies, Louth and Horncastle, but the race is a near-perfect encapsulation of the battle for the soul of the Conservative party.

Its MP is Victoria Atkins , the health secretary, a key figure in the party’s moderate wing and a champion of Rishi Sunak. Her Reform opponent, Sean Matthews, is a retired police officer and was previously a local Tory branch chair who quit the party in protest over its removal of Liz Truss and installation of Sunak.

Like many voters in the market towns of this constituency, Warner says he believes it is time for a change after 14 years, having voted Tory at every election. “Nigel is standing out to us more than any other,” he said, though he is dismissive of all the other main parties. However, he says ultimately that he does not trust Reform – or any other party – to make a difference to the struggles of ordinary people.

Related: Across the market towns of Britain the battle for the soul of the right is fierce

6.05am BST

Tuesday's best campaign photos

Boris, burgers and Basingstoke: here are the best pictures from T-2 days on the campaign trail:

5.57am BST

Labour landslide may boost investment and confidence in UK, say City analysts

A landslide victory for Keir Starmer in the general election on Thursday could hand Britain a stability premium in global markets, boosting the pound, shares and investment in the UK at a time of mounting political turmoil elsewhere, City investors have said.

In sharp contrast with Conservative party warnings over the dangers of a large Labour majority, analysts in the City of London said the prospect of a resounding mandate for Starmer’s party could secure Britain’s “safe haven” status among investors in an increasingly volatile world.

After failing to close the gap in opinion polls during the election campaign , Rishi Sunak made a last-ditch warning that a Starmer “ supermajority ” would “bankrupt people in every generation”.

However, City analysts said a Labour landslide could pave the way for global investment in Britain after years of political and economic uncertainty since the 2016 Brexit referendum under the Tories, which had clouded the prospects for international investors.

Related: Labour landslide may boost investment and confidence in UK, say City analysts

5.54am BST

Boris Johnson made his only appearance on the general election campaign on Tuesday night, less than 48 hours before voters head to the polls, and did not appear with or praise Rishi Sunak.

The former prime minister made a surprise appearance at a Tory rally in Chelsea, accusing Keir Starmer of trying to “usher in the most leftwing Labour government since the war” and claiming he would increase taxes and fail to stand up to Vladimir Putin.

Johnson thanked those at the National Army Museum for attending the late event, claiming that it was “way past Keir Starmer’s bedtime”. He thanked the prime minister for asking him to come, but that was the only mention of Sunak in his speech.

Related: Boris Johnson takes swipe at Starmer and scorns Sunak in first campaign appearance

5.44am BST

Boris Johnson does not appear with or praise Rishi Sunak as he returns to campaign trail

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the general election. With less than 48 hours to go until voting stations open, former PM Boris Johnson has made a surprise first appearance on the campaign. Johnson appeared on Tuesday night at a Tory rally in Chelsea and did not share a stage with or praise Rishi Sunak , the Guardian’s Aletha Adu reports .

Instead, he said Starmer would try to “usher in the most left-wing Labour government since the war”. Making a reference to “other parties” allegedly “full of Kremlin crawlers”, Johnson said: “Don’t let the Putinistas deliver the Corbynistas. Don’t let Putin’s pet parrots give this entire country psittacosis - which is a disease you get by the way from cosying up to pet parrots.”

With just over 24 hours to go now until voting opens, here is what is coming up today:

• Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey is also campaigning in south-east England

• Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is campaigning in Wales, Lanarkshire and Dudley.

• Tory leader Rishi Sunak is campaigning in south-east England today.

• Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is campaigning in Clacton.

• SNP leader John Swinney is campaigning in Cumbernauld, Glasgow and Livingston.

• Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie will join the candidate for Mid Dunbartonshire, Carolynn Scrimegour in Milngavie.

• Scotland’s deputy first minister Kate Forbes is on the campaign trail with the SNP candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, Seamus Logan.

Updated at 6.10am BST