UK will be mostly dry for polling day – but strong gusts forecast for Scotland

The general election campaign opened with a sodden prime minister standing before the door to No 10 Downing Street, rain pooling on the shoulders of his suit.

In contrast, polling day on Thursday is likely to be dry for most of the UK with only occasional showers in the north of England, some heavier in Scotland.

Scotland could feel quite blustery, with strong winds of up to 40mph (64km/h) inland and 50mph on the coast forecast.

Records suggest turnout is not generally affected by weather conditions. According to the UK parliament’s website, despite the general election in 2019 being the wettest since records began in 1931, turnout was higher (67.3%) than in 2001 (59.4%) and 2005 (61.4%), when polling day fell in June and May respectively.

Paul Gundersen, the chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “Strong winds are expected on Thursday, with Scotland bearing the brunt. Inland areas in Scotland could see gusts of 30-40 miles per hour, while coastal areas and hills could experience gales with gusts of 40-50 miles per hour.

“Along with that wind, the west and north-west of Scotland will also see blustery showers, which will perhaps merge into longer spells of rain later. A few showers are also likely across Northern Ireland, Wales and northern England but southern England should remain dry with sunny spells.

“It will feel cooler in the damp north-west but temperatures will be nearer average in the south and south-west. That rain is expected to continue in parts of Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland overnight.”

Temperatures of about 18C (64F) and sunny spells are expected in Cardiff, Liverpool will have highs of 17C accompanied by sunshine and showers, while Edinburgh and Manchester will have sunny spells and showers with temperatures at about 18C.

It will be nowhere near as warm as the election in June 1970, when there was a surprise victory for the Conservatives under Edward Heath, as England, Wales and Scotland reached 28.3C, 27.8C and 26.9C respectively.