New Jersey will be spared the wrath of Hurricane Beryl — the first category five storm of the 2024 hurricane season, which is barreling through the Caribbean — but Garden State residents could be hit in one still unpleasant way: rising gas prices.
The storm has rampaged through the Caribbean Sea with sustained winds as high as 160 miles per hour. It is slated to hit Texas — which has 32 oil refineries — early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Refineries are a crucial step in the process of turning crude oil into gasoline for automobiles.
“We have to wait and see where it lands,” said Mark Schieldrop, a spokesperson for the travel club AAA Northeast. “We won't see much of an impact here if it manages to avoid major ports and refineries along the Gulf Coast.”
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“But if the storm makes a direct hit to oil and gas infrastructure, it could cause prices to go up here if refineries down there are knocked offline for more than a few days,” he said.
As of Wednesday, the average gallon of gas in New Jersey cost $3.45, up from $3.42 Tuesday and $3.36 a week ago. Prices have been pushed up by tightening supply, an increase in crude oil prices, summer demand and speculation about hurricane season, Schieldrop said.
Oil was trading at nearly $83 a barrel according to NASDAQ, compared to $73.25 at the start of June.
Gas and oil analysts predicted that New Jersey could have hit its limit in terms of how far down gas prices can drop in the near future. Once the switch to the less expensive summer blend of gasoline is complete this September, prices could drop below $3 a gallon, said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.com.
Hurricane Beryl earliest ever Cat 5
But hurricanes are essentially a wild card with summer gas prices, with the potential to push them as high as another 25 to 50 cents in a manner of days, De Haan said.
“That Hurricane Beryl is the earliest ever recorded Category 5 storm is not helping energy futures and is likely contributing some level of anxiety over hurricane season,” he said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Schieldrop, the AAA spokesperson, said that a disruption in the Southeast could “interrupt flows of product for much of the country and product diversions will put strain on local markets.”
Denton Cinquegrana, an analyst with the Rockville, Maryland-based Oil Price Information Service, said that one possible scenario is that the hurricane hits Corpus Christi, which has five refineries, though none are connected to the Mid-Atlantic.
“If Beryl turns toward Houston then things can get dicey,” he said.
But we won’t know for several days where Beryl will hit once it makes landfall in the U.S, said Schieldrop.
Daniel Munoz covers business, consumer affairs, labor and the economy for NorthJersey.com and The Record.
Email: munozd@northjersey.com; Twitter:@danielmunoz100 and Facebook
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