Dangerous Hurricane Beryl to make landfall in Mexico before eyeing southern Texas

Powerful Hurricane Beryl will continue to roar across the Caribbean, reaching Mexico prior to the end of the week. The storm will then set its sights on Texas primarily in the form of flooding from rain and storm surge.

Key Takeaways:

•Beryl is the strongest hurricane on record to hit portions of the Windward Islands so early in the season and the earliest 165-mph Category 5 hurricane on record for the Atlantic basin

•Beryl will bring life-threatening conditions and extreme destruction as a Category 4 hurricane to Jamaica at midweek before reaching Mexico on Friday

•AccuWeather meteorologists warn that Beryl's rain and wind impacts will reach the United States after its trek through Mexico

After carving a path of destruction and threatening lives in Jamaica at midweek, Hurricane Beryl will next stop in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before the end of the week. AccuWeather meteorologists expect that steering breezes will then guide Beryl into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend before making another landfall in northeastern Mexico early next week with storm surge, flooding downpours and strong winds.

Despite beginning to encounter some wind shear near Jamaica, Beryl remained a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it encountered the island nation in the central Caribbean. Loss of life and damage similar to that of portions of the Windward Islands is feared but may not be fully assessed until days after the hurricane's departure.

"Thus far, very warm waters and low wind shear have allowed Hurricane Beryl to thrive while crossing the eastern and central Caribbean," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Wind shear is associated with stiff breezes from one direction or shifting directions. When wind shear is strong, it can disrupt an established tropical storm or hurricane.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and much of the eastern coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical storm warning is in effect for much of the south coasts of Haiti, and the northern and western coasts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical storm watch is in effect for much of the coast of Belize.

Beryl's encounter with the Cayman Islands

Beryl's eye will pass just to the south of the Cayman Islands, located west of Jamaica, on Thursday morning with the wind intensity of a Category 3 hurricane and a high risk to lives and property in the region. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Cayman Islands is a 3.

Beryl's intensity has been able to create its own environment bubble thus far, DaSilva said. However, near and beyond the Cayman Islands, wind shear is forecast to increase in the path of Beryl and should begin to take a toll on the hurricane's peak intensity.

Changes within the storm's core may also contribute to a decline in peak intensity as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean.

Beryl to make a landfall in Mexico

"From late Thursday night to Friday morning, we expect Beryl to make landfall along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale," DaSilva said, "Soon after making landfall in Mexico, Beryl will begin to lose wind intensity, but its impacts will remain significant."

In the hours before landfall in Mexico on Thursday night, seas will build, and rounds of rain and wind will increase along the Yucatan's eastern and northern coast and in Belize, which lies just to the south of Mexico. On Friday, dangerous storm surge flooding will threaten coastal communities. Widespread power outages and flash flooding are anticipated in the region.

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Beryl's encounter with the frictional forces of the large land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula and wind shear will further degrade the hurricane's wind intensity from Friday to Friday evening. Because of the magnitude of rain, wind, and storm surge, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico is a 2.

Beryl to approach Texas southern coast early next week

Beyond the Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl will emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Because several days have passed since Tropical Storm Chris moved through the region, water temperatures will have recovered enough to support some increase in wind intensity once again.

There is also some indication that wind shear may ease a bit while Beryl is over the southwestern Gulf.

Factoring in lessening wind shear, warm water and access to tropical moisture, AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Beryl may regain hurricane intensity after spending some time as a tropical storm from Friday to Saturday.

How much strength Beryl regains over the southwestern Gulf this weekend before landfall, as well as a reduction in forward speed, will affect the magnitude of impacts in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.

"A significant factor to consider is that Beryl's forward speed is likely to slow," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

That slower forward speed will increase the duration of wind, pounding surf and storm surge in northeastern Mexico and a portion of the Texas coast. Once the storm drifts inland, it will also raise the risk of flooding rainfall.

The heaviest rain is expected to fall close to where Beryl tracks, from Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula to northeastern Mexico and portions of South Texas, where 4-8 inches of rain is expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 16 inches.

In the past, tropical storms that have stalled over a region have unleashed tremendous rainfall that led to catastrophic flooding in Texas (Harvey 2017). Every storm is different, but steering breezes may drop off enough early next week over Texas to cause the storm and its downpours to linger. The slower the storm moves when over Texas next week, the greater the risk of flooding in portions of the Lone Star State. Portions of South Texas can benefit from non-flooding rainfall due to abnormally dry to drought conditions.

Last week, AccuWeather cleared the East Coast of the United States and the Florida Peninsula from Beryl’s impacts but warned of potential direct impact in Texas. AccuWeather has now cleared the zone from Pensacola, Florida, to New Orleans from Beryl’s direct wind and rain impacts.

Strong rip currents to expand across US Gulf coast

Another far-reaching impact on the United States will be an uptick in strong rip currents along much of the Gulf Coast starting this weekend. Beaches and the surf zone will be extra busy with swimmers and boarders this weekend because of the proximity to the Independence Day holiday.

Surf conditions will become dangerous along South Coast of Texas this weekend and may remain so into early next week.

Tracking a trailing tropical rainstorm in the eastern Caribbean

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a batch of tremendous showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical rainstorm will affect the Windward Islands and part of the Leeward Islands into Thursday. This separate entity is trailing Beryl by two to three days.

There continues to be a risk of this system evolving into a tropical depression or storm in the coming days. Because waters have recently been stirred up and cooled over the eastern and central Caribbean, the system is highly unlikely to reach the same magnitude as that of Beryl just a couple of days earlier.

Since downpours associated with the system may take a similar path to Beryl's over the Caribbean, the heavy rain and gusty winds may hamper cleanup and recovery in hard-hit areas, even if the system does not intensify.

There is also the potential for this moisture and heavy rain to be drawn into part of the Gulf Coast region of the U.S. toward the middle of next week.

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