Politically embattled at home, President Joe Biden faces an increasingly serious test abroad. China is ramping up its state piracy against vessels and persons from the Philippines and Taiwan .
On Tuesday, Chinese coast guard vessels seized a Taiwanese fishing boat in waters near Taiwan's Kinmen Islands. The five-person crew and vessel have been detained. When the Taiwanese Coast Guard briefly attempted to rescue the crew, they were chased away by Chinese forces. Why is this a big deal?
Well, because the Kinmen Islands are less than six miles from China's Xiamen, which is a city connected to the Chinese mainland. That makes these Islands a very useful place for Chinese President Xi Jinping to test Taiwan's resolve and, he hopes, deplete its confidence and will to resist. Xi knows that basic geography means there is very little that Taiwan can do to defend its islands. This seizure is thus a drip-drip Chinese escalation, one small in its individual concern but significant in the strategic escalation it represents.
Xi's Taiwan antics follow another incident in the South China Sea on June 17.
That event saw Chinese Coast Guard personnel board Philippine Coast Guard vessels that were attempting to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre, a deliberately beached vessel in the Second Thomas Shoal. China, quite ridiculously, claims these waters and the near entirety of the South China Sea . But the shoal is 122 miles west of the Philippine coast and 710 miles from China's Hainan Island. It is well within the Philippine exclusive economic zone and is recognized as such by just about every nation except China. To defend its claims, Manila has garrisoned beached Marines on the Sierra Madre. But with that ship in an increasing state of disrepair. China is determined to prevent it from being adequately maintained (more on that later).
But not only did the Chinese Coast Guard board the Philippine vessels, it also attacked its crews, stole its equipment, and damaged its boats. China has escalated its aggression in this locale over the past twelve months, attempting to take advantage of U.S. distraction over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Taken together, these two incidents indicate Xi's increasing appetite for aggression. Also, taking new and very public steps to ensure the absolute loyalty of his military, Xi appears to expect conflict . That Xi is testing to see how the U.S. and its partners respond to the Taiwan escalation, in particular, is obvious. A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman was asked twice about the detentions Wednesday. Both times she responded, "I do not have the details. I’d refer you to the competent authorities." Beijing wants to see how the U.S. responds without first understanding where the Chinese stand on the detention.
It's clear that tentative U.S. efforts to organize occasional international naval flotillas through the South China Sea are not deterring Xi. More robust action must be taken. Unfortunately, until Taiwan decides to spend money on defense equivalent to the annihilatory threat it faces , China is going to keep pushing and continue succeeding.
Fortunately, under the current President Ferdinand Marcos, the Philippines has once again become a close and reliable U.S. ally. It deserves much-increased support in the face of China's imperialist aggression. The U.S. should urgently provide the Philippines with a vessel that can replace the Sierra Madre. The U.S. military should then escort Philippine forces in that replacement effort, defending them if necessary.
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But Biden must also recognize the urgency.
When NATO leaders gather in Washington, D.C., next week, Biden should implore them to recognize the historic stakes of what China is doing and to join greater U.S. efforts to deter that activity. China must know that there will be international consequences for its piracy campaign.
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