Argentina vs. Ecuador prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Copa America 2024 quarterfinal

Defending champions Argentina have yet to be truly tested as they prepare to face Ecuador to open the 2024 Copa America quarterfinals from Houston on Thursday.

The Albiceleste were not breached once at the back during the group stage, skating to clean-sheet victories in all three games.

They missed Lionel Messi in the final group game against Peru, but his absence did little to stop the Argentina steam train barreling down the tracks towards a Copa America title defense. Dealing with a thigh injury, it's unclear at this point whether Messi will play here in the quarterfinals, but regardless, they remain a dominant force.

Ecuador did well to hang on for a scoreless draw against Mexico, which confirmed their knockout qualification, but after conceding 20 shots in that match, La Tricolor will now face a much more ruthless opponent in the defending World Cup champions.

MORE: Copa America full bracket, schedule and live results

Argentina vs. Ecuador prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Argentina (-225)
• Pick: Argentina -1.5 goal handicap (+130)
• Score prediction: Argentina 2-0 Ecuador

Since their last win over Argentina back in October of 2015, Ecuador have been outscored in matches against the Albiceleste 15-3, while finding themselves shut out three times across those six games.

Even if you remove the outlier of that span, a 6-1 friendly win for Argentina, the defending champions have still beaten Ecuador by multiple goals in two of the other five games.

Argentina don't often crush inferior opponents, but they've won by multiple goals in five of their last seven games, and four of their last seven in competitive action. Given plus odds here for the handicap cover against a team that failed to score against Mexico and were well beaten by Venezuela, the value is there, regardless of whether Lionel Messi plays.

Argentina vs. Ecuador match facts

• Date: Thursday, Jul. 4, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
• Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
• Last meeting: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador (June 9, 2024 | International Friendly)

Argentina vs. Ecuador best bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +110 ( BetMGM )

Argentina's style of play is to wear down the opponent until they expose their soft underbellies, at which point the World Cup champions pounce.

It's why Lautaro Martinez, not Lionel Messi, leads this team in goals at this tournament, scoring all four of his goals thus far after halftime, including two of them off the bench.

Ecuador should play right into that hand, as all three of the goals they conceded in the group stage came through the final 45 minutes of play. It was similar the last time they faced Argentina in a competitive match, as Lionel Messi's 78th-minute goal was enough to secure three points for the Albiceleste in World Cup qualifying.

Argentina vs. Ecuador prop bet

• Pick: Argentina over 5.5 total corners
• Odds: -130 ( BetMGM )

Argentina don't often clobber their opponents, and with their goal scoring so skewed towards the second half, it can often take a while before they confirm their victory. As such, racking up corners is a good way to create chances, kill time, and establish control over a match.

The defending champions went over this total in all three of their group-stage games, while Ecuador coughed up seven to Jamaica and five to each of Mexico and Venezuela.

Argentina vs. Ecuador live stream, TV channel

The first knockout match of the 2024 Copa America will be televised in the United States on FOX, which can be streamed on Fubo , who are offering a FREE trial for new users . A Spanish-language broadcast is also available on both TUDN and Univision, which are also streamed on Fubo and accessible via the free trial.

In Canada, this game will be shown across multiple TSN channels as well as CTV2, with a French-language broadcast available on RDS.

In the U.K., 2024 Copa America matches are broadcast and streamed by Premier Sports.