CLEVELAND — The Guardians had just a two percent chance of winning the No. 1 overall draft pick in Major League Baseball's lottery system.
So as Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti focused on potential trades, free agency and the Rule 5 Draft at last year's MLB winter meetings, the draft lottery wasn't the most pressing matter considering the long odds and that they couldn't control the process anyway.
Around the time the lottery was taking place, Guardians director of media relations Bart Swain pulled Antonetti from a quick session with reporters to ask one question: "Are you comfortable with what you're wearing to go on television?"
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That was the moment Antonetti really began to believe the Guardians could actually nab the No. 1 overall selection in the draft, a massive victory on the player development front for any franchise.
"We're tracking that that's happening, but we had a two percent chance of having the first pick, so as were thinking about where our bandwidth is at the winter meetings, we were spending a lot of time working [other things]," Antonetti said Wednesday. "We finished with the media and then Bart shared, like, 'Yeah, it's happening.' So things sped up pretty quickly then, but obviously needless to say, I was elated and it was an exciting time for our group."
It launched the Guardians into a new world when it comes to the draft. They've never had the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. They'll have an overall draft pool of a little more than $18.3 million, which is a team record by a wide margin. Teams have a set amount of money that acts as a maximum they can allocate toward their combined draft class that is determined by slot position. So if a first-round pick signs for under that slot amount, it means the team would have more to spend on later picks, and vice versa.
And, for the first time, they can allocate a larger portion of their time and focus on the very top of the draft pool.
"We look at this as an extraordinary and exciting opportunity for us," Antonetti said. "Oftentimes when you're thinking about your first pick, you're trying to guess who's going to be off the board before you get an opportunity to select. This year, we don't have to guess."
The guessing game is for everyone else trying to figure out who will go No. 1 in the draft.
The Guardians are in an envious position around the league, as they entered Wednesday's game with the best record by winning percentage in the American League — largely thanks to a power surge this season — and, on top of that, they have the No. 1 pick in the draft.
But who will the Guardians actually take No. 1? Here are the top candidates.
Travis Bazzana, second baseman, Oregon State, 21 years old
Bazzana probably has the most buzz around his name to be the first player taken off the board. He's a complete hitter with an advanced approach at the plate who put up serious numbers at Oregon State in every season.
A left-handed hitter who is originally from Australia, the scouting report on Bazzana includes a ton of bat speed and plenty of raw power. He can also run well, evidenced by his 36 steals in his second year. While some scouts aren't sure he'll remain at second base, he has the potential to stick there and has the bat to produce anywhere on the field.
His profile — contact, smart decisions at the plate, complete hitter — also fits the Guardians' recent trend of selections.
Charlie Condon, third baseman, Georgia, 21 years old
Condon didn't garner much scouting attention when he was a walk-on at Georgia, but he's demanded plenty of it now as arguably the best player in the entire draft.
Condon set an SEC freshman record with 25 home runs and then destroyed his career bests by hitting .433 with 37 home runs this past spring.
Condon's offensive ceiling is thought to be, well, truly at the ceiling. He has light-tower power and at 6-foot-6 has the ability to hit home runs even on mishits.
Yes, the Guardians have a certain third baseman signed long term, but Condon could move around the field, and he's talented enough to make an impact just about anywhere there's a spot. There's a chance he eventually moves to the outfield.
Jac Caglianone, first baseman and left-handed pitcher, Florida, 21 years old
Caglianone might be the most interesting player in the entire draft, and he might be the first name announced on July 14.
He's the best two-way player in the country. As a 6-foot-5 hitter, he might have the most power out of any left-handed hitter in the draft (he slugged 33 home runs in 2023 to lead Division I).
As a pitcher, he can touch triple digits with his fastball, and he also throws a cutter, slider and changeup.
It remains to be seen if the team that drafts Caglianone allows him to keep being a two-way player, considering his potential is higher as a position player, and he's already had Tommy John surgery once, in 2021.
JJ Wetherholt, shortstop, West Virginia, 21
Wetherholt might have had more momentum had he not missed several weeks with a strained hamstring this spring. The Guardians also have a competitive-balance pick (No. 36 overall), so if they opt for Wetherholt at No. 1, there's a chance they can allocate even more money toward their later picks.
Wetherholt is viewed as a shortstop who can do just about everything as an above-average five-tool player. He's also arguably the best pure hitter in the draft class as a left-handed batter with elite pitch recognition and bat-to-ball skills. He's also a plus runner.
There's a chance he moves to second base at some point, but likely has the arm, at least, to remain at shortstop. The question rests more with a recurring hamstring issue.
But due to the time he missed this spring, Wetherholt might sign for a bit less, which would allow the Guardians to reserve some pool money and be as aggressive as possible with their remaining selections, which can be advantageous at times as teams look to not only draft the best players available but sign the best draft class possible.
Hagen Smith, left-handed pitcher, Arkansas, 20 years old
Smith underwent Tommy John surgery as a high school sophomore and then tied a Texas prep record with seven no-hitters as a senior in 2021.
He's viewed as having the best stuff of any left-handed pitcher in the draft and won SEC Pitcher of the Year honors while leading Division I in average-against (.144) and strikeout rate (17.3 per nine innings).
Smith sits in the mid 90s with his fastball, but it can hit 100 and has some riding action. His best pitch is a mid-80s slider, and he adds in a cutter and a splitter.
Smith throws from a low-three-quarters arm slot that can appear a bit funky while making it difficult for hitters to pick up pitches.
Chase Burns, right-handed pitcher, Wake Forest, 21 years old
Burns is a flamethrower. His fastball sits at 97-99, and he can reach 102. Like Smith, Burns has a tremendous slider that generated a 60 percent swing-and-miss rate during the last two years. He also throws an above-average curveball and mixes in a changeup at times.
After transferring to Wake Forest from Tennessee, Burns led Division I with 191 strikeouts in 100 innings.
Konnor Griffin, shortstop and outfielder, Jackson Prep, 18 years old
The lone high school player on this list, Griffin was the Gatorade National High School Player of the Year. He's already 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds at 18 years old and has five-tool potential.
His contact and strike zone control are above average, which fits the Guardians' mold. He's viewed as having electric bat speed and near-elite speed, giving him 30-homer, 30-steal upside.
Scouts view him as a plus defender at shortstop and a potential Gold Glove winner in center field, giving him positional flexibility. He also has an above-average arm, which has been clocked at 96 mph on the mound.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis.
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