The Guardian

UK election live news: Tories braced for ‘massacre’ as early results herald landslide win for Labour

By Léonie Chao-Fong and Helen SullivanAndrew Sparrow,

21 days ago

1.59am BST

Mark Francois , chair of the Tory European Research Group, has retained his seat, Rayleigh and Wickford in Essex. But his majority has been cut from 30,348 to 5,621. And his share of the vote is down 36 points. Here are the results from PA Media.

C win - notional hold
+Mark Francois (C) 17,756 (37.01%)
Grant Randall (Reform) 12,135 (25.29%)
James Hedges (Lab) 11,823 (24.64%)
Stewart Mott (LD) 4,068 (8.48%)
Chris Taylor (Green) 2,196 (4.58%)
C maj 5,621 (11.72%)
3.50% boundary change
Electorate 76,576; Turnout 47,978 (62.65%)
2019 notional: C maj 30,348 (57.26%) - Turnout 52,997 (69.35%)
C 38,652 (72.93%); Lab 8,304 (15.67%); LD 4,081 (7.70%); Green 1,960
(3.70%)

1.56am BST

Conservative party leader in Scotland, Douglas Ross , has admitted tonight “is historically bad” with “no shying away from that at all”.

“There will be a huge amount of reflection on the campaign and also, clearly, the last few years,” he told the BBC.

1.51am BST

In Basildon and Billericay, where Richard Holden , the Conservative chair, is the party’s candidate, a full recount is taking place. Holden was selected for the seat, from a shortlist of one (he did not have any competition) after his North West Durham seat disappeared in the boundary review. He was widely accused of lining up a safe seat for himself, because John Baron had a majority of 20,412 at the last election. The boundary changes made the seat a bit more Labour, but only marginally.

Updated at 1.53am BST

1.43am BST

Lib Dems claim they have won Chichester, beating education secretary Gillian Keegan

This is what a Lib Dem spokesperson is saying about Chichester, where the party is confident it has beaten Gillian Keegan, the education secretary.

Chichester is going Lib Dem orange, as Gillian Keegan becomes the first Cabinet Minister of the night to lose her seat.
The Conservatives have let down the people of Chichester for too long. This seat has been Conservative for 100 years and a win here for the Liberal Democrats is an extraordinary achievement which has unseated the education secretary.

Keegan had a majority of 21,490 at the last election over the Lib Dems. Since then the boundaries have changed, but the new boundaries were marginally more favourable to the Tories, not less. Under the new boundaries, it is estimated the Tories would have been on 59% at the last election (not 58% – its actual share of the vote) and the Lib Dems would have been on 20% (not 23%), according to the Guardian’s guide to the boundary changes.

1.40am BST

Lib Dems win first seat from Conservatives

The Liberal Democrats’ Tom Gordon has won Harrogate & Knaresborough, the party’s first victory of the night.

The full results from PA media are:

Tom Gordon (LD) 23,976 (46.05%)
Andrew Jones (C) 15,738 (30.23%)
Jonathan Swales (Reform) 5,679 (10.91%)
Conrad Whitcroft (Lab) 4,153 (7.98%)
Shan Oakes (Green) 1,762 (3.38%)
Paul Haslam (Ind) 620 (1.19%)
Stephen Metcalfe (ND) 136 (0.26%)
LD maj 8,238 (15.82%)
Notional 15.82% swing C to LD
6.20% boundary change
Electorate 77,970; Turnout 52,064 (66.77%)
2019 notional: C maj 8,787 (15.82%) - Turnout 55,543 (73.28%)
C 28,873 (51.98%); LD 20,086 (36.16%); Lab 5,349 (9.63%); Others
1,208 (2.17%); Green 27 (0.05%)

Updated at 1.53am BST

1.37am BST

Here’s a look at our front page for Friday:

1.33am BST

The Liberal Democrats are claiming to have beaten Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, in Chichester.

1.32am BST

Labour sources tell the BBC they are quietly confident of four of the five seats in Fife.

Former leader of Labour in Scotland Jim Murphy says the projected results for Scotland overall are “double jeopardy” for the SNP “because not only have they lost votes to Labour directly but they lost votes to non voters. And in politics, it’s much harder to re-energise people who have left and gone to be non voters.”

1.25am BST

I’m in Burnley, in the heart of Lancashire’s red wall, where Labour is on course to regain a seat it lost to the Tories in 2019 – the first time the town had elected a Conservative MP since 1910.

Throughout the campaign Burnley was billed as Labour’s most winnable seat. It needed the tiniest of swings to sweep away Tory incumbent Antony Higginbotham ’s fragile majority of 1,532.

But on the ground – far removed from the opinion polls – the mood was rather different. As I reported four weeks ago , the Liberal Democrats sensed a huge upset as it won the backing of a large portion of Burnley’s Muslim community which had deserted Labour in significant numbers over Sir Keir Starmer’s position on Gaza.

A Labour source told me earlier today that the result in Burnley was looking “close”, with Labour’s candidate Oliver Ryan on around 33% of the vote with the rest split equally among the rest.

Gordon Birtwistle, the Liberal Democrat candidate (and former MP), just told me that the result “seems positive”. He believes he has hoovered up the vast majority of votes from the Muslim community, which could total around 11,000. “I’ve just watched one box being opened when I had all the votes bar four,” he said.

Another Liberal Democrat source said the Conservatives “are doing better than you would expect” in Burnley, and Reform were also picking up votes from Labour.

With at least an hour to go until the result, we’ve just been given the official turnout for Burnley: it’s a very low 53.2% – about seven percentage points down from 2019. That’s similar to what has happened across England so far and is a story in itself.

1.23am BST

Turnout on course to be one of lowest in postwar history, says John Curtice

Prof Sir John Curtice , the psephologist who led the team that produced the exit poll, said early results are consistent with widespread expectations of a low turnout.

Speaking to the BBC, Curtice said:

We may discover we are heading towards one of the lower turnouts of general elections in postwar electoral history.

He noted that there was “not that much difference between Conservative and Labour in much of what they were offering the electorate”.

The lowest general election turnout since 1918 was in 2001, when it was 59.4%. The highest was in 1950, when it was 83.9%. For most of the postwar period turnout was regularly in the 70s, or higher, and in 1997 it was 71.4%. But it has never returned to those levels since the sharp fall in 2001. At the last election it was 67.3%, down by 1.5 percentage points compared with 2017 (68.8%). Full figures are available in this House of Commons library briefing paper.

1.22am BST

Labour holds Gateshead Central & Whickham , and once again Reform has come second.

Here are full results, from PA media:

Lab win - notional hold
Mark Ferguson (Lab) 18,245 (45.37%)
Damian Heslop (Reform) 8,601 (21.39%)
Ron Beadle (LD) 4,987 (12.40%)
Nicholas Oliver (C) 4,628 (11.51%)
Rachel Cabral (Green) 3,217 (8.00%)
Norman Hall (TUSC) 369 (0.92%)
Graham Steele (Save) 170 (0.42%)
Lab maj 9,644 (23.98%)
50.60% boundary change
Electorate 68,779; Turnout 40,217 (58.47%)
2019 notional: Lab maj 5,911 (14.07%) - Turnout 42,021 (59.19%)
Lab 19,787 (47.09%); C 13,876 (33.02%); LD 5,138 (12.23%); Brexit
1,629 (3.88%); Green 1,591 (3.79%)

Updated at 1.29am BST

1.17am BST

Polling guru John Curtice cautioned that the exit poll projections for Scotland should be taken with a “great deal of caution”.

On the BBC website he said the poll only included a few sample points in Scotland leaving projections less robust there. He wrote on the BBC website:

If the poll has even slightly overestimated Labour’s advantage over the SNP, the latter’s tally could end up being higher.
The forecast for the SNP – and for Scotland in general, where the exit poll is pointing to substantial Labour gains – must thus be treated with a great deal of caution.

Updated at 1.23am BST

1.13am BST

Reform UK supporters in Ashfield say they are “confident” that Lee Anderson will be re-elected there, PA Media reports. Elected as a Tory in 2019, he defected to Reform UK. Labour says it thinks the contest is “too close to call”.

1.12am BST

Here are the full figures for Newcastle upon Tyne Central & West, from PA Media:

Lab win - notional hold
Chi Onwurah (Lab) 18,875 (45.64%)
Ashton Muncaster (Reform) 7,815 (18.90%)
Frances Lasok (C) 4,228 (10.22%)
Yvonne Ridley (Ind) 3,627 (8.77%)
John Pearson (Green) 3,228 (7.81%)
Ali Avaei (LD) 1,946 (4.71%)
Habib Rahman (Ind) 1,636 (3.96%)
Lab maj 11,060 (26.74%)
74.70% boundary change
Electorate 76,822; Turnout 41,355 (53.83%)
2019 notional: Lab maj 15,731 (32.68%) - Turnout 48,135 (62.95%)
Lab 28,520 (59.25%); C 12,789 (26.57%); Brexit 3,934 (8.17%); Green
1,462 (3.04%); LD 1,430 (2.97%)

1.08am BST

It’s looking increasingly like a near-wipeout for the Tories in Wales. Labour insiders are – cautiously – saying they believe they are on course to take seats from the Tories such as Wrexham in north Wales and the Vale of Glamorgan in the south.

The leader of the Tories in the Senedd, the Welsh parliament, Andrew RT Davies , has expressed anger at the timing of the election. The chair of the party in Wales, Tomos Dafydd Davies , has suggested the Tories need to develop a “robust brand” of their own in Wales.

Craig Williams , who was embroiled in the scandal over the placing of bets on the date of the election, may just win in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr. However the Tories withdrew support from him so he will sit as an independent.

It isn’t all good news for Labour. The exit poll suggests its share of the vote in Wales is down by 2%, perhaps a sign that controversies that have swirled around the first minister, Vaughan Gething , are cutting through.

Plaid Cymru has had a good campaign with the profile of its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, boosted by impressive appearances on television and radio debates and interviews. But its members are playing down its prospects, believing it may end up with only two MPs. It had hoped for four.

Reform UK is not expected to win any seats in Wales but it thinks its vote share will be large in some areas, which could provide it with a foothold for the 2026 Senedd elections where there will be proportional representation rather than first-past-the-post.

Updated at 1.14am BST

1.06am BST

According to Jeremy Vine , who has been presenting the latest analysis of the results on the BBC, although the swing to Labour in the seats so far declared is 11%, the party is on course to win some seats where it will need of up to 18, 19, 20% to win.

12.56am BST

The Liberal Democrats have listed some of the seats they are confident of winning tonight. They are: Torbay; North Cornwall; Yeovil; Eastleigh; Wimbledon; Woking; Guildford; South Cambridgeshire; ⁠Cheadle; Hazel Grove; Wokingham; Lewes and Tunbridge Wells.

They say the Liberals have not won Tunbridge Wells since 1906. At the last election the Tories were on 55% and the Lib Dems 28%. The boundaries have not changed.

12.52am BST

Jeremy Corbyn is on course for a narrow victory in Islington, according to a Labour source.

Corbyn is standing as an independent candidate.

12.47am BST

Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested earlier the Tories were losing so badly partly because they ditched Boris Johnson. (See 11.46pm .) In the speech at his count following his defeat by Labour’s Heidi Alexander (a former MP for Lewisham East, who left parliament in 2018 to take a job with Sadiq Khan), Robert Buckland, the former justice secretary, implied that people like Johnson were part of the problem. He said:

Our very political system is at a crossroads. Do we value those who work to bring people together and who come into politics to do something rather than be someone? Or do we shrug our shoulders and accept that politics is a media circus where people compete for attention by saying things that they either know to be untrue, or which raise hopes and expectations in a way that further erodes trust?
I know what side I’m on. I know what choice I would make. And I believe with sincere and fierce conviction that my party has to make the right choice too if we are to inspire a new generation with the real promise of a better future.

Buckland did not say anything like this when he was serving in Johnson’s cabinet. And his concerns about politicians making unrealistic promises did not stop him switching his support from Rishi Sunak to Liz Truss in the summer of 2022, a decision that led to him being retained in cabinet as Welsh secretary.

In an interview with the BBC a moment ago, asked who he was referring to in his speech, Buckland did not name anyone, but he criticised colleagues writing newspaper articles implying disloyalty during the campaign.

When it was put to him that he was talking about Suella Braverman, who wrote an article in the Telegraph this week saying the party was on course to lose, Buckland did not deny that.

Updated at 1.09am BST

12.44am BST

Labour holds Newcastle upon Tyne Central & West.

Reform has come second again.

12.40am BST

Labour has held on to Washington & Gateshead South . The full results, according to PA media:

Lab win - notional hold
+Sharon Hodgson (Lab) 17,682 (47.76%)
Paul Donaghy (Reform) 10,769 (29.09%)
Shaun Parsons (C) 4,654 (12.57%)
Michal Chantkowski (Green) 1,687 (4.56%)
Ciaran Morrissey (LD) 1,602 (4.33%)
Sharon McLafferty (Ind) 627 (1.69%)
Lab maj 6,913 (18.67%)

32.10% boundary change
Electorate 70,972; Turnout 37,021 (52.16%)
2019 notional: Lab maj 3,938 (9.39%) - Turnout 41,954 (58.45%)
Lab 18,090 (43.12%); C 14,152 (33.73%); Brexit 5,784 (13.79%); LD
2,067 (4.93%); Green 1,122 (2.67%); Others 739 (1.76%)

12.36am BST

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage posted a video statement on X where he predicted his party would receive more than six million votes.

“This, folks, is huge,” Farage said, noting that there were two results in the north-east of England that put Reform on 30% of the vote. “It is almost unbelievable.”

It means we’re going to win seats, many many seats I think right now across the country.

12.27am BST

Labour sources have told the BBC they think they have snatched four of the six Glasgow seats from the SNP with two constituencies, Glasgow North and Glasgow South too close to call.

12.24am BST

We’ve had three results now from safeish Labour seats in the north-east of England where Reform UK has come second. In all three, the Brexit party (the predecessor party of Reform UK) came third last time, behind the Tories.

And their share of the vote has risen sharply.

In Houghton and Sunderland , a 16% Brexit party vote in 2019 has become a 29% Reform UK vote.

In Blyth and Ashington , a 9% Brexit party vote in 2019 has become a 27% Reform UK vote.

And in Sunderland Central , a 12% Brexit party vote has become a 27% Reform UK vote.

12.22am BST

Here are the full results for Swindon South, from PA Media:

Lab win - gain from notional C
Heidi Alexander (Lab) 21,676 (48.39%)
+Sir Robert Buckland (C) 12,070 (26.95%)
Catherine Kosidowski (Reform) 6,194 (13.83%)
Rod Hebden (Green) 2,539 (5.67%)
Matt McCabe (LD) 1,843 (4.11%)
Martin Costello (Ind) 472 (1.05%)
Lab maj 9,606 (21.44%)
Notional 16.43% swing C to Lab
29.20% boundary change
Electorate 72,596; Turnout 44,794 (61.70%)
2019 notional: C maj 5,650 (11.41%) - Turnout 49,527 (68.34%)
C 25,564 (51.62%); Lab 19,914 (40.21%); LD 3,788 (7.65%); Green 261
(0.53%)

12.19am BST

Labour wins Swindon South taking seat from former justice secretary Robert Buckland

Labour’s Heidi Alexander has won Swindon South, taking the seat from the former Conservative justice secretary Robert Buckland.

It marks the first Labour gain from the Conservatives.

Updated at 12.21am BST

12.15am BST

Six seats are in play in Glasgow, down from seven in 2019 and results will not be in until at least 3am.

A walk around the Glasgow Emirates Arena indicates it is a close run between SNP and Labour which used to dominate the city before 2015.

Labour volunteers say they have been surprised by the number of votes for Reform showing in Glasgow north while Conservatives are dismissing exit polls suggestions that the party might double its six seats in Scotland, saying it didn’t even target some of them.

12.12am BST

Third result of the night is in – Labour’s Lewis Atkinson has won Sunderland Central.

Reform UK has once again come second. Here are the full figures from PA Media:

Labour hold
Lewis Atkinson (Lab) 16,852 (42.18%) Chris Eynon (Reform) 10,779 (26.98%)
Greg Peacock (C) 5,731 (14.34%)
Niall Hodson (LD) 3,602 (9.01%)
Rachel Featherstone (Green) 2,993 (7.49%)

12.08am BST

Earlier this week Rishi Sunak seemed to hint that, if the Tories lost, he would stay on as leader for a period to provide stability while the party assesses the way forward. Some Tories are hoping he will do this, following the example of Michael Howard, whose decision to hang on for six months after the 2005 election, overseeing changes to the leadership election process and a lengthy leadership contest, was generally seen as good for the party.

But Tim Shipman , the Sunday Times’ chief political commentator, has told Times Radio he thinks Sunak will resign on Friday. This is from Calum Macdonald at Times Radio.

. @ShippersUnbound tells @TimesRadio ‘s Election night that his understanding is that Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative leader on Friday morning

At the last leadership contest, following the resignation of Liz Truss, the Conservative 1922 Committe imposed a threshold saying any candidate would need to be nominated by 100 MPs to go forward to the ballot of members. This was designed to avoid the need for ballot of members. Sunak passed the threshold, Boris Johnson reportedly passed the threshold, but pulled out, and Sunak was elected unopposed.

If the Tories do get only 131 seats, as the exit poll suggests, then it would be impossible for more than one candidate to pass the 100-MP threshold. If the Tories want their members to have the final say, the rules will need a rethink.

12.05am BST

David Bull, deputy leader of Reform UK, said it is an “historic moment” after the exit polls predicted his party gaining 13 seats.

“I think what you’re seeing is the shy ‘Reformers’ coming out in droves,” Bull told the BBC.

11.46pm BST

Jacob Rees-Mogg suggests Tory defeat partly explained by decision to ditch Boris Johnson as leader

Rightwingers in the Conservative party think a major cause of the party’s defeat was the decision to get rid of Boris Johnson, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was leader of the Commons and then Brexit minister under Johnson, became one of the first Tories to make that case tonight.

Speaking on the BBC, he said it had been “a terrible night” for the party.

Asked what went wrong for the party, Rees-Mogg said there were “issues with changing the leader”. He went on:

Voters expect the prime minister they have chosen to remain the prime minister and for it to be the voters who decide when that person is changed …
I’m afraid I think the Conservative party took it’s core vote for granted, which is why you see so many people who may have voted Conservative previously, going off to Reform.

11.41pm BST

In the first result of the night, the Labour shadow education secretary, Bridget Phillipson , has won the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency.

Phillipson, in her victory speech, said the British people had “chosen a brighter future”.

Tonight the British people have spoken, and if the exit poll this evening is again a guide to results across our country as it so often is, then after 14 years the British people have chosen change.
They have chosen Labour and they have chosen the leadership of Keir Starmer. Today our country with its proud history has chosen a brighter future. The British people have decided that they believe as Labour believes that our best days lie ahead of us – hope and unity, not decline and division, stability over chaos.
A government powered by hope, by the belief that tomorrow cannot just be different from today, but better. A government of service, a government with purpose above all to change our society for good.

Updated at 12.09am BST

11.35pm BST

Rishi Sunak’s U-turns and reversals on net zero had proved “as popular with voters as a root canal”, said Greenpeace as the exit poll showed Labour on course for a landslide victory .

Ami McCarthy, political campaigner at Greenpeace, said:

A strong majority of voters seem to have rejected the Conservatives’ divisive approach to the climate and nature crises and backed parties willing to tackle them.

Sunak signalled his sharp change in direction last September , ahead of the party conference season, vowing to roll back key policies. He stepped up his anti-green rhetoric repeatedly in the following months , culminating in an attack on “environmental dogma” when he called the election in the rain on the steps of Downing Street.

But this approach had been clearly rejected, if the exit poll was correct, green experts said. Ed Matthew, campaigns director at the E3G thinktank, said:

Dependence on oil and gas has driven the cost-of-living crisis. By delaying and damaging the clean energy policies that could cut energy bills, Rishi Sunak pitched the Conservatives against every UK household. It was a catastrophic political blunder.

Shaun Spiers, executive director at the Green Alliance thinktank, said:

British people want a credible plan to make their lives better, and they’ve emphatically backed a party that promises to help the economy grow, create jobs in clean industries and take the climate crisis seriously. Voters have rejected a party which backtracked on its commitments, campaigned against its own record in government, and tried to draw dividing lines around the environment. The new government has a clear mandate from the public to invest in Britain, and to take decisive action towards a greener, fairer and more prosperous country.

11.34pm BST

Second result - Labour holds Blyth and Ashington

The second result of the night has been announced – Labour’s Ian Lavery has won in Blyth and Ashington.

Reform has come second. The full results are:

Labour – 20,030 (49.6%)
Reform UK – 10,857 (26.9%)
Conservative – 6,121 (15.2%)
Green Party – 1,960 (4.9%)
Lib Dems – 1,433 (3.6%)

Updated at 11.48pm BST

11.32pm BST

Full results for Houghton and Sunderland South

And here are the full figures for Houghton and Sunderland South, from PA Media.

Labour hold
Bridget Phillipson (Lab) 18,837 (47.05%)
Sam Woods-Brass (Reform) 11,668 (29.15%)
Chris Burnicle (C) 5,514 (13.77%)
Paul Edgeworth (LD) 2,290 (5.72%)
Richard Bradley (Green) 1,723 (4.30%)
Lab maj 7,169 (17.91%)
11.50% boundary change
Electorate 78,448; Turnout 40,032 (51.03%)
2019 notional: Lab maj 3,271 (7.47%) - Turnout 43,798 (56.97%)
Lab 17,696 (40.40%); C 14,425 (32.94%); Brexit 6,895 (15.74%); LD
2,602 (5.94%); Green 1,183 (2.70%); Others 997 (2.28%)

Reform UK is the new version of the Brexit party, and, on that basis, its share of the vote is up 13 points. Labour’s share is up 7 points, and the Tories’ share is down 19 points.

11.26pm BST

In Barnsley North , the exit poll predicts that Labour’s Dan Jarvis is likely to lose his seat to a former Reform candidate who was dropped by the party last week over alleged racist comments.

On an episode of BBC Question Time on Friday, Reform party leader Nigel Farage disowned three candidates, including Barnsley North’s Robert Lomas.

According to a report in the Times , Lomas had reportedly said that “black people of Britain should get off their lazy arses and stop acting like savages”, and that asylum seekers had it “in their DNA to lie.”

On Saturday, Reform confirmed it had withdrawn support from Lomas and two other candidates. It is understood Lomas would sit as an independent MP.

Jarvis, a former army officer and a shadow minister under Ed Miliband, has been an MP since 2011, when he was elected in a byelection. In 2019, in the previous constituency, Barnsley Central, the Brexit Party came in second place, with Jarvis winning a majority of just 3,500.

Updated at 11.31pm BST

11.25pm BST

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said he was “delighted” by the “remarkable” exit poll results. He told the BBC:

If we have won this general election, that is historic for the Labour party, but even more importantly, is an opportunity for the country, for us to rebuild our economy and our public services and rebuild trust in politics.

Streeting praised Keir Starmer’s “steel and the determination”, adding that he didn’t think the Labour leader has nearly enough credit for having grabbed the party “by the scruff”.

11.17pm BST

Although the exit poll suggests Labour is on course to more than double the number of seats it wins, compared to 2019, it seems to be achieving this without a dramatic increase in its share of the vote.

The BBC has shown figures comparing how vote share has changed in seats won by the Tories in 2019, compared to seats won by Labour in 2019, and in the 2019 Labour seats the party’s share of the vote is down 1 percentage point. The Tories are down 17 points, and Reform UK up 10.

In seats the Tories won in 2019, Labour is up 5 points, and the Tories down 28 points. Again, Reform UK is the big winner in these seats – up 18 points.

11.16pm BST

First result of the night - Labour wins Houghton and Sunderland South

Labour’s Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, has won Houghton and Sunderland South.

11.08pm BST

The Scottish National Party is facing a near wipeout in Westminster after dominating politics north of the border for a decade, as an exit poll suggested it would be left with just 10 MPs.

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon told ITV that the survey showing they would lose 38 constituencies would translate into a “seismic” night for Labour – if it proves accurate. Sturgeon said she believed the results of the exit poll would turn out to be “broadly right”.

The SNP had been expecting a bad night, with first minster John Swinney warning that votes in many constituencies were on a knife-edge. Privately it been hoping for about 20 seats, but the projected 10 would be the worst result since 2010 – prior to the independence referendum.

However, Labour is expecting a Lazarus-style recovery from 2019, its worst result in Scotland since 2010 when it had only one MP.

Polls ahead of tonight predicted Labour would take between 25 and 26 seats, winning seats in the central belt of Edinburgh, Glasgow and their surrounding constituencies.

11.06pm BST

11.03pm BST

Jeremy Hunt to become first chancellor to lose seat, exit poll suggests

Jeremy Hunt is projected to lose his seat, according to the exit poll. He would be the first chancellor in modern history to lose his seat.

There is an 81% chance that the Lib Dems will gain Hunt’s seat in Godalming and Ash, according to the poll.

Hunt is the most high-profile cabinet minister predicted to lose his seat – but he is by no means the only one.

Grant Shapps , the defence minister, and Johnny Mercer , the veterans minister, could also lose their seats.

Transport secretary Mark Harper , Work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, Environment secretary Steve Barclay and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt are all “too close to call”, according to the poll.

Updated at 11.17pm BST

10.59pm BST

Prof Sir John Curtice , the psephologist who led the team that produced the exit poll, has just told the BBC that they are least confident about the seat figures for Reform UK (13) and for the SNP (10).

With the SNP, he says they have fewer sampling points in Scotland, making it harder to get a firm forecast. But he says he is confident about Labour being the larger party in Scotland.

And he says, with Reform UK, there are seats where they are ahead, but the margin is very tight. He says they could end up with quite a lot less seats, or perhaps even more.

Updated at 11.03pm BST

10.51pm BST

Welsh secretary says he has lost his seat

The Welsh secretary, David TC Davies , has said the exit poll suggests there “isn’t a chance” he’ll retain his seat.

Speaking to the BBC, he said:

On the basis of the exit poll, there isn’t a chance that I’ll be winning, which is disappointing. I’ve had great support from the local association, but the fact is, people wanted a change.
That’s the way it goes in democracy. I’ll be the first to acknowledge there’s going to be a massive Labour victory and I certainly won’t be in parliament at the end of the evening.

Davies had stood for the new seat of Monmouthshire in south-east Wales.

Tory strategists are worried that they could face a wipeout in Wales. They won 14 of the 40 seats at the 2019 election. In 1997 and 2001 they were left with zero seats in Wales but had steadily clambered back.

Updated at 11.13pm BST

10.49pm BST

Peter Mandelson, the Labour peer, said he was “gobsmacked” by the exit poll results and the projected Labour win was an “extraordinary achievement for Keir Starmer and his team”.

“An electoral meteor has now struck planet Earth,” he told the BBC, adding:

In a sense, it’s not surprising given everything the country has gone through in the last 10 years.

Updated at 11.01pm BST

10.47pm BST

William Hague , the former Tory leader and former foreign secretary, has said it will take the Conservative party “a long time” to recover from this defeat.

Speaking on Times Radio, he said the result implied by the exit poll was “catastrophic”, but not as bad as some of the forecasts. One projection said it would get only 64 seats, he said.

With 131 seats, the Tories would “just about” be able to mount an effective opposition, he said. He went on:

The answer will be to build again for the future. The Conservative party at its greatest – as it has been over 200 years, usually the governing party of the country – because it could command the centre ground of politics, people of all walks of life, people of all age groups, and it will have to be able to do that. It will take a long time to be able to do that, but it will have to be able to do that.

Updated at 11.03pm BST

10.40pm BST

Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner said the exit poll numbers are “encouraging” but noted that an “exit poll is a poll so we haven’t had any results yet”.

Rayner, speaking to BBC News, noted that a number of seats were on a “knife-edge”, adding:

I also know that all of our activists and our candidates have been going out there not taking anything for granted and speaking to the electorate about what matters to them.

She added that it would be “an absolute honour and a privilege to be re-elected” as an MP for Ashton-under-Lyne and to be able to serve as deputy prime minister.

Rayner also took a moment to thank those who voted for Labour, telling Sky News:

We understand the weight on our shoulders ... and I would say to the people of this country, I will always put you first, and I will fight really hard every day to turn things around.

10.40pm BST

Some candidates suffered 'unacceptable abuse and intimidation' during campaign, says Electoral Commission

Some candidates suffered “unacceptable abuse and intimidation” at this election, the Electoral Commission said.

In a statement issued as polls closed, the commission’s chief executive, Vijay Rangarajan , said:

Today, tens of millions of people exercised their democratic right and had their say at the ballot box. Overall, our initial assessment is that polling day ran smoothly and people were able to cast their votes securely. We continue to support administrators as they undertake counts tonight.
Millions of people were able to have their say, but we know there is room to improve the experience for some. A record number of postal votes were successfully returned, but some couldn’t vote both in the UK and abroad because of the late arrival of postal votes.
There was a robust and vibrant campaign, but unacceptable abuse and intimidation of candidates. We will collect evidence from people who participated in these elections as voters, candidates, campaigners and administrators, to better understand their experiences. We will recommend improvements to the systems where necessary.

10.35pm BST

'This is a massacre': former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson on exit poll projection

Ruth Davidson, the former Scottish Tory leader, has described the exit poll as projecting a “massacre” for her party. But it was not as bad as it might have been, she told Sky News. She said:

So actually 131 – while, there is no dressing it up, this is a massacre – they’ve actually, if this is right, pulled a few back from where they thought they were.

Updated at 12.17am BST

10.34pm BST

Here are some images from the newswires showing reactions to the exit poll predicting a Labour landslide win.

Updated at 10.36pm BST

10.30pm BST

'Politically seismic' - Reform UK welcomes exit poll suggesting it will win 13 seats

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK appeared to be on course for a dramatic breakthrough according to an exit poll which showed it was on course to win as many as 13 seats.

While there was caution about how exit poll would ultimately translate into seats, it was clear that millions of people had voted for the hard-right anti-immigration party, which has stated that it is out to destroy the Conservative party.

Ben Habib , Reform’s deputy leader, said: “This is a huge bridgehead. This is politically seismic.”

The poll results suggest that Farage, who sparked a political earthquake on the right after he returned as leader of the party last month and announced he had changed his mind about running, is on course to win the Essex seat of Clacton.

Richard Tice, Reform’s chair and the man who stepped aside so that Farage could come back, appeared to be in a strong position to win in Boston and Skegness.

Others who were in a strong position included the former Southampton football club chairman Rupert Lowe, who was running in Great Yarmouth.

Updated at 10.32pm BST

10.29pm BST

Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, is celebrating the results of the exit poll, which predicts that his party “are on course for our best results in a century”.

The Lib Dems are on course to win 61 seats, according to the exit poll.

10.27pm BST

If the Conservatives do get just 131 seats, it will be their worst result in terms of seats since they started calling themselves the Conservative party in the 1830s, under Robert Peel. Previously their lowest total was in 1906, when they had 156 seats.

10.24pm BST

Reacting to the exit poll, Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon told ITV:

This is not a good night for the SNP on those numbers.

The Scottish National party are projected to only have 10 seats, according to the poll. Sturgeon said:

This is at the grimmer end of the expectations for the SNP if the exit poll is right.

The SNP privately had been hoping for about 20 seats, which they felt would reflect a stabilisation of the party’s declines since Sturgeon last March.

Updated at 10.24pm BST

10.20pm BST

This chart, from a post on the Comment is Freed Substack by Dylan Difford, shows how a majority of 170 would compare with other majorities since 1885.

Although huge, and an unthinkable target when Keir Starmer became Labour leader in 2020, the exit poll seat numbers are not as high for Labour as the MRP polls were suggesting, but higher for the Tories. (See 8.50pm .) If Keir Starmer does get a majority of 170, he will just miss beating the record Tony Blair set for a Labour majority (179) in 1997.

10.20pm BST

Keir Starmer, in a post on X published shortly after the exit polls were announced, thanked everyone who has “put their trust in our changed Labour party”.

10.16pm BST

Reform to win 13 seats, exit poll suggests

The Reform UK party are projected to win 13 seats, according to the 10pm exit polls.

10.07pm BST

How reliable are exit polls?

Broadcasters have been commissioning exit polls since the 1970s and in the past there have been some spectacular misses. In October 1974 a BBC exit poll said Labour would win by a landslide, when in fact Harold Wilson won by a tiny majority. In 1987 the BBC and ITV (which produced rival exit polls in those days) both badly underestimated how big Margaret Thatcher’s majority would be, and they both forecast a hung parliament in 1992 when John Major won a small majority.

But in 2005 the methodology changed, and since then exit polls have generally been very accurate. Prof Sir John Curtice is in charge of the team and the work is jointly commissioned by the BBC, ITV and Sky News. Of the five previous exit polls calculated using this method, two got the majority exactly right, two were out by less than 10, and one was out by 22. Here are the details.

2005 – accurate: It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which was correct.

2010 – accurate: It said the Conservatives would be 19 seats short of a majority, and they were.

2015 – out by 22: It said the Conservatives would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12.

2017 – out by 4: It said the Conservatives would be 12 seats short of a majority, but they were eight seats short.

2019 – out by 6: It forecast a Tory majority of 86, but it was 80.

There is more on how the exit polls works on this Channel 4 News fact check blog.

10.06pm BST

Labour heading for majority of 170, exit poll suggests

If these figures are accurate, Keir Starmer will have a majority of 170.

10.03pm BST

Here are the full figures, showing how many seats each party has gained and lost.

10.02pm BST

Exit poll suggests Labour has won 410 seats, and the Tories 131

Clive Myrie is reading out the exit poll.

Conservatives: 131

Labour: 410

Liberal Democrats: 61

SNP: 10

Reform UK: 13

Plaid Cymru: 4

Greens: 2

Updated at 11.01pm BST

9.57pm BST

Clive Myrie is opening the BBC’s election night coverage. He is co-presenting with Laura Kuenssberg.

9.55pm BST

Oliver Dowden among five Tories getting knighthoods and damehoods in dissolution honours

No 10 has also announced knightoods for four Tories in the dissolution honours – Oliver Dowden , the deputy PM; Julian Smith , the former chief whip and Northern Ireland secretary; Ben Wallace , the former defence secretary; and Alister Jack , the outgoing Scottish secretary – and one damehood, for Thérèse Coffey , the former deputy PM.

As Michael Savage from the Observer reports, Jack had been tipped for a peerage:

Updated at 10.23pm BST

9.45pm BST

There are many memorable moments on election night, but it is hard to beat hearing the exit poll being read out. For those actively involved in the campaign, this is the moment of agony or joy. It’s coming soon.

For years David Dimbleby read the results out on the BBC. As a broadcaster, it is one of the biggest tasks you can be given. But, surprisingly, Dimbleby thinks exit polls are a bit of a waste of time, and that they spoil the drama. This is what he writes about them in his memoir, Keep Talking.

The glory of a British election is that 650 constituencies have to give their result individually and do so within a few hours of the polls closing. So what is the point of exit polls? As they become more accurate they drain the drama from the night, like revealing the denoument of what should be a play in five acts. I see no point in spending money predicting what is going to happen in a few hours’ time rather than waiting for it to happen. The exit poll adds nothing and spoils the fun. If it is accurate and is confirmed by the actual results it makes the reality a dull affair, simply confirmation of what has been predicted.

9.40pm BST

Full list of people getting peerages in dissolution honours list

And here is the full list of people getting peerages in the dissolution honours list.

Nominations from Conservative party

Sir Graham Brady , outgoing chair of the 1922 committee

Chris Grayling , who served in cabinet as transport secretary, justice secretary and leader of the Commons

Eleanor Laing , former deputy speaker of the Commons

Craig Mackinl ay , the former MP for South Thanet who returned to the Commons recently having had his hands and feet amputated due to sepsis

Theresa May , the former PM

Alok Sharma , the former Cop26 president and former business secretary

Liam Booth-Smith , who has been Rishi Sunak’s chief of staff.

Nominations from Labour party

Margaret Beckett , former foreign secretary, former deputy Labour leader, and acting leader between the death of John Smith and the election of Tony Blair

John Cryer , a former chair of the parliamentary Labour party (PLP)

Harriet Harman , a former deputy Labour leader and acting leader between the resignation of Ed Miliband and the election of Jeremy Corbyn

Margaret Hodge , a former culture minister and former chair of the public accounts committee

Kevan Jones , a former defence minister

Barbara Keeley , a former deputy leader of the Commons

John Spellar , a former whip

Rosie Winterton , a former deputy speaker

Nomination from the Liberal Democrats

Caroline Pidgeon, former Lib Dem leader in the London assembly

Nomination from the Ulster Unionist party

Thomas Elliott , former UUP leader

Nominations for crossbench peerages

Minette Batters , former president of the NFU

Dr Hilary Cass , former president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and chair of the recently published review into gender identity services for children and young people.

Updated at 10.25pm BST

9.31pm BST

With just half an hour until the results of the exit poll are out, the opinion polls have consistently put Labour on course for a victory with one of the largest ever parliamentary majorities . Conversely, the Conservatives are projected to suffer one of their worst ever losses.

Here’s how the prediction of a dramatic Labour win compares with other landslide victories in British history.

Updated at 10.23pm BST

9.21pm BST

Theresa May and Graham Brady given peerages in surprise dissolution honours list

Downing Street has made the surprise decision to release a dissolution honours list tonight. It includes peerages for the former prime minister Theresa May and former chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee Sir Graham Brady.

9.10pm BST

Earlier this week we reported that Rishi Sunak was worried about losing his seat . He represents Richmond and Northallerton in Yorkshire, where at the last election (when the seat was called Richmond, and the boundaries were slightly different) he had a majority of 27,210.

Like almost every other candidate, Sunak may have been taking a look at this website , created by the Oxford University data scientist Peter Inglesby. It aggregate all the MRP polls carried out during the campaign, as well as other forecasts from election models, and shows what they are predicting for every seat in the country. Of the 14 models included, 12 of them have Sunak holding his seat (with varying degrees of certainty) and two of them have Labour on course to win there.

9.01pm BST

This is from the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire, who is outside the PM’s constituency home in Yorkshire.

Updated at 9.08pm BST

8.58pm BST

Even if nothing much happens, in news terms, on polling day until 10pm, it is a glorious day for those who cherish our democracy. Esther Addley captures what has been happening here. And, yes, it features dogs at polling stations.

8.50pm BST

Election results night: opening summary

Good evening. Britain’s first past the post (FPTP) electoral system is flawed in many respects – it is not fair to small parties, it means many people feel that their votes never count, it does not guarantee stable governments – but in one respect at least it performs brilliantly. When the nation is truly fed up with a government, and when the public is determined to “throw the rascals out”, FPTP delivers. As in 1906, or 1945, or 1997, it can lead to an unpopular governing party being crushed by a landslide that reshapes the political landscape. We’re expecting another tonight.

There is no particular mystery about why the Conservative party is on course to lose so badly. Last month Cambrige University Press published a new book about the record of the party in government over the past 14 years. It concluded that, measured by its performance, this has been the worst government in postwar history . Nobody has seriously tried to argue that this assessment is wrong.

And there does not seem to be anyone in the political world who is not expecting a Labour landslide victory tonight. Election nights often produce surprises, but they came in two categories. Some elections produce an unexpected shock (like John Major winning in 1992, or David Cameron getting an outright majority in 2015, or Theresa May throwing it away in 2017.) But there are also elections that produce an expected shock; a result that that is in line with what pollsters were predicting, but yet is still a surprise because the numbers seemed too outlandish to be true. This happened in 1997, when hardly anyone believed regular polls suggesting Tony Blair was on course for a majority heading for the 200 mark (including the papers that paid for them). And it seems likely to happen again tonight.

But there is still huge uncertainty as to how well Labour might do. The Elections Etc website has published a round-up of the different results forecast by different methods (simple modelling, based on opinion polls; more complex modelling based on the same polls; MRP polls; and the betting markets). On average these models are predicting a Labour majority of 194. The lowest projected figure for the Labour majority (from simple model forecasting) is 88.

But pollsters regard their MRP surveys as particularly reliable, and the numbers these polls are producing are astonishing. Here is the summary from Elections Etc.

Some of these predictions are certain to be very badly wrong. (There is a big difference between Labour getting a majority of 210 and 382.) Perhaps the MRP pollsters have all got it wrong? But, as we go into election night, they have created an extraordinary situation where Keir Starmer could end up with a majority of 100, which would still be a landslide, or even 150 – an astonishing result for a party that lost very badly less than five years ago – and still feel a tad disappointed.

Anyway, we will have a much better idea at 10pm, when the results of the exit poll are out. For the last 20 years it has mostly been very reliable. And by tomorrow we will know for sure. Unless election 2024 has produced the greatest failure since people started trying to measure electoral opinion in the democratic age, Keir Starmer will become prime minister (around lunchtime?) and he will start forming a new government.

Here is an hour-by-hour guide to what results we are expecting an when.

And here is a guide from Rob Ford , a psephologist, to the trends we should be looking out for.

I’m Andrew Sparrow and I’ll be blogging through the night with Léonie Chao-Fong. We will be covering results here, but we also have a seperate results page here. And of course we will be bringing you reaction and analsyis into the night and all through Friday. I am unlikely to have much time to look at the comments tonight but if you want to flag something up to me, try using X; I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly.