National Hurricane Center gives update on Beryl, expected impacts from Florida to Texas

The National Hurricane Center on Friday morning (July 5) issued a morning update on YouTube, outlining the latest predictions for Hurricane Beryl as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and heads toward the Gulf of Mexico.

While Beryl is expected to weaken as it makes its way across the peninsula, it is forecast to restrengthen back to a hurricane before making its third landfall anywhere from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast.

➤ Track Hurricane Beryl

➤ Live updates: Is Texas landfall next from Hurricane Beryl?

Beryl made its second landfall about 7 a.m. Friday, July 5, north of Tulum, Mexico, as as a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph. It made its first landfall July 1 at 11 a.m. on Carriacou Island, Grenada, as a Category 4 storm with 150-mph winds.

National Hurricane Center director discusses timing, potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl

Key messages NOAA wants public to know about Hurricane Beryl

National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan narrated the video and made the following points:

Key points

• Hurricane Beryl made landfall early Friday morning northeast of Tulum, Mexico, in the Yucatan Peninsula.
• Residents and visitors to Yucatan Peninsula should stay in their safe space Friday until conditions improve.
• Beryl is expected to weaken into a tropical storm over the Yucatan Peninsula, but strengthen back to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
• A northward turn close to the Texas coast could mean a big difference on where the center of Beryl makes a third landfall. It could come into the South Texas coast or if it moves just a little to the right, it could come ashore along the middle portions of the Texas coast in the coastal bend region. Movement to the left could mean another landfall in northern Mexico.
• There's an increasing risk for hurricane-force winds along the northeastern Mexico coast to the lower and middle Texas coast.
• Expect rip current risks to increase dramatically across much of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Mexico.

Timing

• Friday night: Beryl should enter the Gulf of Mexico.
• Saturday evening: Tropical-storm force winds expected in northeastern Mexico.
• Sunday morning: Tropical-storm-force winds should arrive along Gulf Coast from South Texas to Louisiana.
• Late Sunday into Monday: Increasing risk for hurricane-force winds along the northeastern Mexico coast to the lower and middle Texas coast.

Where will Hurricane Beryl go next?

Expected impacts expected across Texas, Mexico from Hurricane Beryl

Yucatan Peninsula: Storm surge 1-3 feet above ground level Heavy rainfall of 4-6 inches, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches in some areas. Winds have been slowly decreasing but as of 11 a.m. remained at hurricane strength of 85 mph.

Texas coast: Increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge. Storm surge watches likely to be issued for portions of the lower and middle Texas coasts later today.

• Tropical storm watches may be issued for portions of Texas coast later today.
• Widespread rainfall of 4-8 inches across southern Texas, with a flash flood risk over the next five days and especially Sunday through Tuesday for Houston, San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Brownsville and Laredo.
• Expecting rip current risk to increase dramatically across much of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Mexico.

How strong is Hurricane Beryl and where is it going?

Spaghetti models: Where will Hurricane Beryl go next?

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.