Rookie scale extension candidates: From Jalen Green to Santi Aldama

While July is known for its loud free agency moves, it is also the beginning of the rookie scale extension period. Everyone who signed their four-year rookie scale contract in the summer of 2021, had both of their team options subsequently exercised and who were not waived at any point are now due to head into the final season of those deals. And between the end of the July Moratorium and the day before the start of the regular season, those players can extend their contracts.

Last season, a record 14 players signed such deals, and this season, 24 more are eligible. Only six players from the 2021 NBA draft class are not; having been waived off of their rookie deals, James Bouknight (the No. 11 pick), Josh Primo (No. 12), Kai Jones (No. 19), Keon Johnson (No. 21), Usman Garuba (No. 23) and Josh Christopher (No. 24) are completely out of the running for an extension. Going the other way, however, Franz Wagner (No. 8), Scottie Barnes (No. 4) and Cade Cunningham (No. 1) have been reported to have already agreed to signing maximum-value extensions.

This, then, leaves 21 other players picked in the first round of the 2021 NBA draft who are eligible for contract extensions this summer. There follows a look at who from that class might sign such extensions, and the potential value of them.

No. 2: Jalen Green (Houston)

When contracts expire, they still count against the salary cap in some way in the form of what are known colloquially as “cap holds”. This is to prevent a situation in which an entire roster became free agents at the same time, allowing a team to have an entire salary cap to spend on external players, and then still be able to re-sign their own.

The size of each player’s cap hold is determined by a combination of what type of free agent they are, and how much their previous contract paid them. In the case of players becoming free agents following the fourth season of their rookie scale contract, their cap hold is equal to 300 percent of their previous season’s salary if it was below the league average, or 250 percent of their previous season’s salary if it was above the league average.

The relevance of that here is that the Rockets, it appears, are deliberately going to let Green become a free agent next summer, instead of extending him now. Were Green to sign a maximum-value extension this summer, his salary next summer will be approximately $35.1 million (with the exact amount not being known until next July); conversely, his cap hold next summer if he signs no extension will be 250 percent of his $12,483,048 2024-25 salary, or $31,207,620.

An approximate $4 million is not a huge difference, but it might be enough to make a difference in the cap space stakes if Houston go that route. To do so would mean not bringing back Fred VanVleet, but if they do decline his $44,886,930 team option for next season – as well as let Steven Adams hit the free agency market – then it is possible for them to be in the market.

More realistically, though, their reported hesitancy over extending Green will be a function of their indecision about his place in their future. It has been an up-and-down journey for the young scoring guard, from the crescendo in his rookie season to the rumors that his lack of growth made him a name on the trade market as recently as January, through to his strong end to the last campaign that put him in the max contract discussion in the first place. Given the inconsistent nature of things so far, it behooves Houston to get another year’s worth of information before making a decision.

No. 3: Evan Mobley (Cleveland)

• Likelihood of extension: Very high
• Estimated annual value: Maximum

In contrast to the Rockets’ situation with Jalen Green, it seems highly likely that the Cavaliers will extend Mobley in the coming weeks. Having already done the same to Donovan Mitchell, there exists no path to salary cap space in the foreseeable future, and thus no value in waiting. And as a 23-year-old 6-foot-11 two-way player who already has an All-NBA Defensive 1st Team appearance to his name, Mobley’s price is automatic.

No. 5: Jalen Suggs (Orlando)

• Likelihood of extension: Likely
• Estimated annual value: Circa. $18–24 million

Suggs has not developed into as much of an all-around offensive player as was hoped – to date, at least – but his ascent to becoming one of the best defensive backcourt players in the league has been a rapid one. He was named to the NBA All-Defensive 2nd Team last season, a rare accolade for a third-year guard, and the Magic’s decision to pair him with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this offseason was done to create a powerhouse defensive duo across the backcourt and wings as a foundation of their team. Suggs, then, is a big part of the plan. And having improved from a 21 percent three-point shooter as a rookie to a 40 percent shooter last season, there has been offensive development, too.

No. 6: Josh Giddey (Chicago)

• Likelihood of extension: Unclear
• Estimated annual value: A baseline of roughly the non-taxpayer mid-level exception

Giddey has only been with the Bulls for two weeks, having arrived in a one-for-one straight swap for defensive wizard Alex Caruso in the week before the draft. It follows logically that the Bulls will need, and should take, some time to fully evaluate their new player from the inside.

That said, it also follows logically that they valued Giddey from the outside highly, as other packages for the coveted Caruso were available. While Giddey had lost his starting spot with the Thunder, and indeed much of his usage altogether come the playoffs, he will have a blank slate with Chicago, as well as enough of the ball to see if he can develop his own offensive scoring bag enough to become an above-average NBA starter. They may choose to wait to pay him until he does so.

No. 7: Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State)

• Likelihood of extension: Fairly low
• Estimated annual value: Approximately $30 million

The Warriors reportedly declined to include Kuminga in their trade talks with the Clippers for Paul George, a measure of how much he has come to matter to them on the court in the immediate term, and how he also represents the future for a team that has largely forgone one. Considering that this is the same Warriors team who were fairly tepid on Klay Thompson and allowed him to walk, and whose stock response to negotiations with their own players is much more lukewarm than other franchises, that is quite the endorsement.

That said, a large part of the reason for allowing Thompson to leave is the cost of it all, and a substantial commitment to Kuminga will just reallocate money rather than save it. From Kuminga’s point of view, a full season as the clear No. 2 offensive option behind Stephen Curry may see him surpass the 20-point-per-game scoring average, which in turn will up his market value. In combination, then, Kuminga betting on himself, Golden State’s new financial caution and their tendency to leave new contract discussions for as long as they can mean that, even with their high valuation of him, an extension for Kuminga is not automatic.

No. 9: Davion Mitchell (Toronto)

• Likelihood of extension: Highly unlikely

Respectfully, Mitchell’s NBA career thus far has been hugely disappointing.

Drafted by the Sacramento Kings out of Baylor as the rare upperclassman Top 10 pick, he was expected to be ready to contribute immediately at the NBA level, particularly defensively, having won both the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award and the national championship in 2021. But he did not contribute enough to live up to the billing.

In three seasons with the Kings, Mitchell’s minutes per game declined from 27.7 mpg as a rookie to 15.3 mpg in 2023-24. He posted a negative VORP in all three seasons, and is a subpar ball-handler and shooter, playing the position where such things are required. The defense, while decent, does not offset that. And then just last week, Mitchell was traded along with Sasha Vezenkov to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Jalen McDaniels.

About to turn 26 and no longer a prospect, Mitchell needs a second chance. Perhaps he will get one on a Raptors team with no immediate plans for much else. But even if he does, there is no reason for an extension at this stage.

No. 10: Ziaire Williams (Memphis)

• Likelihood of extension: Not high
• Estimated annual value: $6-8 million

Undoubtedly, Ziaire Williams looks the part of the NBA player. He is tall, extremely long, and very athletic; it was a body type born to play basketball at the highest level. But after three years at that highest level, it remains unclear what type of player he is, or will ever be. His shooting efficiency and advanced metrics have declined across each of those seasons, and while it could be said that he (as a finisher only) particularly suffered from the fragmented offense of Memphis’ empty season, he also showed little growth in his skillset or awareness.

As seen with teammate Vince Williams, the Grizzlies have a history of preferring to extend their rookies when they can, even the low-price ones going back to the days of Kosta Koufos. Yet in the case of Ziaire, this piece of clay remains as yet unmoulded, and it is hard to establish a price on potential alone.

No. 13: Chris Duarte (Sacramento)

• Likelihood of extension: Highly unlikely

Similar to Davion Mitchell above, Duarte was drafted by the Indiana Pacers as a senior expected to make an immediate impact, and yet unlike Mitchell, he did. At least, he did initially; Duarte averaged 17.7 points per game in his first month in the NBA on his way to a 13.1 scoring average in his first season.

Thereafter, though, a profound sophomore slump hindered by injury never went away. And at the end of that season, the Pacers ultimately traded him away last summer for a mere pair of second-round picks (the earliest of which will be conveyed in 2028), only for Duarte to get an even smaller role than Mitchell.

Having played only 12.2 minutes of 59 regular season games last season and seeing his scoring average drop to 3.9 points per game from the 13.1 points per game of his rookie season, the now-27-year-old Duarte is at risk of losing his place in the NBA entirely. As things stand, it is something more likely to happen than any extension.

No. 14: Moses Moody (Golden State)

• Likelihood of extension: Not great
• Estimated annual value: Approximately $9-10 million

Albeit not to the extent of the aforementioned Jonathan Kuminga, Moody also took advantage of Golden State’s nothing season in 2023-24 to play his best basketball to date, averaging 8.1 points and 3.0 rebounds in 17.5 minutes per game while posting his first positive VORP. He only turned 22 in June, and has a nice combination of size, athleticism, shooting and perimeter defense that accords with the modern game. He has not however as yet been a regular starter in the NBA, and he figures not to be one next year either. If Golden State can tie him down to a bench player’s price accordingly, then perhaps they should; Moody, however, might be wise to bet on himself and earn the annual eight-figures with another season of improvement.

No. 15: Corey Kispert (Washington)

• Likelihood of extension: Decent
• Estimated annual value: Approximately equal to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception

In a muted and under-the-radar way, Kispert has become a nice player for the Wizards, in large part because he has the most important skill in the modern game. He has shot 38 percent from three-point range on a high volume across his first three NBA seasons, and with the departure via trade of Deni Avdija at the draft, more minutes and shots just opened up.

As the Wizards get younger and take conscious backwards steps in the immediate term for the benefit of the long – something that will only become truer once Kyle Kuzma is traded, as seems likely at some point this year – Kispert becomes one of the more senior and most talented players by default. If they can tie him down before what might be a substantial scoring leap forward, they should.

No. 16: Alperen Sengun (Houston)

• Likelihood of extension: Seemingly unlikely, but certainly deserving
• Estimated annual value: Maximum

As described above with regards to Jalen Green, the Rockets’ financial situation sees them potentially vying to keep open the much-coveted “flexibility” into next summer. But what differs between Green’s and Sengun’s situations is Sengun’s certainty as a player. He broke out in all facets last season, averaging 21.1 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game as an imitation of Nikola Jokic. Certainly, the defense is not as surgical as the offense. But it seems hard to dispute that that level of offensive talent merits a maximum value extension.

No. 17: Trey Murphy (New Orleans)

• Likelihood of extension: Fairly high
• Estimated annual value: $23-27 million

Murphy’s big breakout came in his second NBA season, and while his third was more of a year of consolidation than one in which he hit an extra level, there is plenty of allure to a 6-foot-8 forward with high efficiency marks on his high-volume jumpers. Indeed, his career to date is tracking quite closely to that of the comparable Mikal Bridges. The Hornets should tie that down if they can.

No. 18: Tre Mann (Charlotte)

• Likelihood of extension: Somewhat unlikely
• Estimated annual value: Somewhere between the taxpayer and non-taxpayer MLE amounts

For his first two and a half seasons, Mann’s career was going backwards. 26 starts and 1,367 minutes as a rookie gave him some on-the-job training and the opportunity to play through errors, of which there were many. But as the Thunder got better, his role got smaller and smaller, to the point that he was out of the rotation altogether in 2023-24 and had played only 119 minutes through late January. They were better without him.

A reprieve, though, came in the form of his inclusion in the highly unsuccessful trade that the Thunder made with the Hornets for Gordon Hayward. And once given the starting point guard spot in Charlotte for the final 28 games of the season, he responded with some nice performances and averages of 11.9 points, 5.2 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.0 turnovers per season.

Showing not just the ability to be a microwave scorer but also better ability to work off of that threat, and still only 23 years old, Mann restarted his career in his part-season of work. If Charlotte can tie him down for a price commensurate with that as opposed to waiting until after the full-season breakout they are hoping he is about to have, this will serve them well.

No. 20: Jalen Johnson (Atlanta)

• Likelihood of extension: Fairly high
• Estimated annual value: $24-27 million

From barely playing as a rookie, Johnson has been one of Atlanta’s better players, and a saving grace over the last two underwhelming seasons. He broke out to the tune of 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game last season, posting Khris Middleton-esque numbers in a Kevin Durant-esque body, and in not turning 23 until December, Johnson has plenty of upside beyond this. He will, rightly, cost a lot of money to retain. Any necessary financial savings can be made elsewhere.

No. 22: Isaiah Jackson (Indiana)

• Likelihood of extension: Low
• Estimated annual value: $5-8 million

Jackson is useful and productive in his small role. Last season, he averaged 6.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 13.1 minutes per game for the Pacers, almost all of which came off the bench. It is hard to see, though, how the role can become any bigger – despite Jalen Smith’s departure to Chicago, Jarace Walker is (or will be) higher on the pecking order due to his higher upside. There therefore exists a strong possibility that Jackson will simply play out his contract in Indiana, or at least just go to free agency next season and reassess.

No. 25: Quentin Grimes (Dallas)

• Likelihood of extension: Reasonable
• Estimated annual value: $6-8 million

Grimes has only been with the Mavericks for a couple of weeks, having been the only returning piece in the cap-clearing trade that sent Tim Hardaway Jr to the Detroit Pistons. This made it three teams in three seasons for Grimes, which is not the start anybody wants to their pro career.

That said, Grimes is not being passed around as mere filler. As evidenced by the fact that other teams including the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks were said to be interested in him, Grimes has had a solid start to his career, averaging 11.9 points per game as a sophomore with the Knicks, and while his play for both them and the Pistons last year was a step down from there, he has already been a good player on a good team. Not everyone on this list can say that, and if he really does have suitors, Dallas should tie him into a small deal if they can to preserve that trade value.

No. 26: Bones Hyland (LA Clippers)

• Likelihood of extension: Slim
• Estimated annual value: $4-7 million

After a strong start to his career, averaging double figures in scoring across his first year and a half in the NBA, Hyland was unexpectedly moved by the Nuggets to the Clippers at the 2023 trade deadline. They did not get much in return for their double digit-scoring microwave first-rounder, having to add an extra second-round pick just to get a short-term rental of bench big man Thomas Bryant in a three-team deal, and although the Clippers gave up only two second-round picks to get their man, they were amenable to getting two other seconds back at the 2024 deadline, with Bones not having won a regular place in their rotation either.

Hyland, then, is not coveted, and as a player limited to being a scorer only, his upside is limited. Perhaps that two-pick trade value is the highest it will ever be.

No. 27: Cam Thomas (Brooklyn)

• Likelihood of extension: Fairly high
• Estimated annual value: $22-27 million

With the trade of Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks on draft night, there exist fewer and fewer established offensive players on the Nets right now. Thomas, as one of the most unabashedly aggressive offensive players around, will therefore try to score 56 points per game next season. This volume will come with inefficiencies, off-nights, limitations and losses. But tying him into that price will be reasonable enough to give him resale value when the time comes.

No. 28: Jaden Springer (Boston)

• Likelihood of extension: Low
• Estimated annual value: Barely above the minimum

Springer was surprisingly moved at the 2024 trade deadline by the Sixers in exchange for a mere future second-round pick (subsequently used on Adem Bona), in what was a clear cap-cutting move from a team going full bore into the Paul George stakes. When players of the caliber of George are available, it is not much of a slight for players of Springer’s caliber to be deemed expendable – they should be, in those circumstances.

Nevertheless, having barely played with the Celtics during their title run, Springer still finds himself at the end of year three right at the end of the bench. He is on a very good bench, but right at the end of it nonetheless, and the Celtics’ financial limitations combined with how low of a priority he is makes Springer an unlikely extension candidate.

No. 29: Day'Ron Sharpe (Brooklyn)

• Likelihood of extension: If they can, why not?
• Estimated annual value: $9-11 million

Were he on as good of a team, Sharpe might be talked about in the same way as Dereck Lively II has been with the Dallas Mavericks. Nevertheless, while it has been coming off the bench behind Nic Claxton on under-the-radar on mediocre Nets teams, Sharpe has developed nicely over these past couple of seasons, and averaged 6.8 points and 6.4 rebounds in only 15.1 minutes per game last season.

It is hard to find a path to him being a regular starter in the near future, even were he or Claxton moved out of state. Sharpe however may prefer to back himself, given the regression of the team around him, to fully break out next season and earn something closer to what Daniel Gafford is earning to start ahead of Lively.

No. 30: Santi Aldama (Memphis)

• Likelihood of extension: Decent
• Estimated annual value: Approximately equal to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception; ideally, lower

After a slow rookie season, Aldama has shown much improvement over his last couple of years, and has a package of smooth offensive tools that Grizzlies fans will be hoping he can turn into a Chicago-era Lauri Markkanen-esque level. He averaged 10.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game on a versatile offensive package last season, including a three-point stroke that is so coveted in a 6-foot-11 frame.

Further growth, particularly on the defensive end, will be needed if Aldama is to hit that Markkanen projection and become the team’s starting power forward alongside Jaren Jackson Jr in the future. Yet the window is open to tie him into a reasonably-sized three-year extension, with the implied promise of a future windfall if he becomes the best version of himself over its course.