Election forecasters say Minnesota is set to be more competitive this presidential election

MINNEAPOLIS — Following President Joe Biden's poor debate performance last week, a key election forecaster shifted Minnesota from "likely Democratic" in this presidential race to "lean Democratic," signaling the state is more competitive than it was four years ago when Biden won easily.

University of Virginia's "Sabato's Crystal Ball" at its Center for Politics changed its rating for Minnesota in wake of that debate. Analysts also downgraded Michigan from "leans Democratic" to a "toss-up."

"President Biden's debate performance was so bad that it has forced us to reassess some of our assumptions about the race," wrote Kyle Kondik, in the post about the change.

Mr. Biden in a campaign speech on Friday in Wisconsin—a key battleground that will be an essential state on the path to victory in 2024— vowed he is staying in the race, despite some Democrats calling for him to withdraw following the debate.

"Let me say this as clearly as I can: I'm staying in the race," he told supporters in Madison.

Wisconsin has been a purple state in recent years, but Minnesota has gone blue every presidential election since Richard Nixon won here in 1972.

Like forecasters at the University of Virginia,  Larry Jacobs, political scientist at the University of Minnesota and director of the university's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, believes the race for the state's 10 Electoral College votes will be close between former President Donald Trump and Biden.

The president cruised to victory in Minnesota in 2020, defeating Trump by seven percentage points. But in 2016 the race was much closer—Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by less than two percentage points.

Turnout will be key, Jacobs said, and he pointed to the presidential primary results in Minnesota this spring. Nearly 46,000 Democrats —19%—voted "uncommitted" over President Biden to protest his position on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

"This just underscores that Minnesota is going to be closely contested in 2024. If the Biden campaign does not put up the money and the resources and the candidate time, they may well lose here," Jacobs said.

Biden's visit in nearby Wisconsin comes two days after Democratic governors convened in Washington to meet with the president at the White House to shore up support in wake of the debate . After the meeting, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz pledged his support for Biden and said he is "fit for office."

Trump's team is expanding its footprint in Minnesota, as the campaign eyes flipping it in 2024. There are plans to open eight additional field offices in the state.

"If Trump wants to spend his time and money trying to campaign in blue states, be our guest," Biden campaign spokesperson Caroline Stonecipher told CBS News last month.

CBS News reports the Democratic National Committee is investing $500,000 in Minnesota this election and that the Trump campaign's strategy in the state had no bearing on its own.

Another nonpartisan group that analyzes elections, The Cook Political Report, still has Minnesota in the "likely Democratic" column.