Is Minnesota turning the corner on its wet weather?

It’s been a very wet period since about mid May. It may finally be behind us now if the medium and longer range models are to be believed. The next week could be the driest one in nearly two months!

June 2024 bucked the trend and pattern in a few different ways. For one, it was actually slightly cooler than normal. The average June temperature was 69.5 degrees, which is -0.2 deg F below normal. It’s worth noting that "normal" is the 1991-2020 modern average. In real terms, June 2024 was still nearly 2 degrees above the historic average of the first half of our records (1873-1949). That’s pretty incredible considering how wet the month was.

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The cool weather wasn’t because climate change took a break or any "Arctic air" outbreaks. It was simply because we saw less sun than normal with all the clouds and rainfall.

For 13 consecutive months we were warmer than normal and June 2024 finally broke that streak, at least temporarily, even if just barely.

The other unusual aspect has been the rainfall. It’s still mind blowing to think just a few months ago three quarters of Minnesota was in drought and now we have an extreme surplus of rainfall.

Consider these stats for the Twin Cities and Minnesota:

• It was the 14th wettest June (of 151 years) in the Twin Cities, but the 4th wettest April-June period.
• On a statewide basis, per Dr. Mark Seeley, it was the 3rd wettest June statewide and THE wettest April-June period for the state.
• In the Twin Cities we’ve been averaging about 1.75 inches of rainfall per week over the past 60 days. The normal value is 0.97 inches per week.
• In southwest Minnesota there has been 20 to 21 inches of rain, or about 2.40 inches per week on average.

We haven’t had a week (looking at the calendar week of Sunday through Saturday) with rainfall below 1 inch since the May 11-18 period, until maybe this most recent week. As of this writing on Friday, July 5 we’ve had 0.98 inches this week. I would guess we’re going to get at least 0.02 inches before July 6 is over.

What’s even more potentially exciting is that the weighted average of the computer models gives us just 0.15 to 0.35 inches of rainfall in the Twin Cities area over the next 7 days. That would be the driest week since the very start of May.

In the longer range, past week, most of the models agree that the remainder of July will be drier too. In fact, they have us wracking up rain DEFICITS in the next 30 days, though likely minor ones given the major surplus we now have.

The drier pattern means we’ll finally start to see some heat too, whether you like that or not. We STILL have not hit our first 90 in the Twin Cities. We got close in mid June with an 89 degree high but no cigar. It’s the latest first 90 (whenever it arrives) in 31 years!

July 6, 2014 was the previous recent late 90. This will be the latest since 1993 which interestingly enough is the ONLY summer we have not hit 90 in the Twin Cities thanks to a brief global cooling effect from the volcano, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.

So get ready folks, summer, previously delayed, is on its way!

BMTN Note: Weather events in isolation can't always be pinned on climate change, but the broader trend of increasingly severe weather and record-breaking extremes seen in Minnesota and across the globe can be attributed directly to the rapidly warming climate caused by human activity. The IPCC has warned that Earth is "firmly on track toward an unlivable world," and says greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 in order to limit warming to 1.5C, which would prevent the most catastrophic effects on humankind. You can read more here .