Minor flooding threat remains for Maui & Hawaii Isle

HONOLULU (KHON2) – A surface ridge far north of the islands will maintain the trade wind regime through the upcoming week.

Some changes to the ridge around Tuesday will see an uptick in the wind speeds, with moderate to locally breezy winds reaching the islands.

A mid to upper level ridge over the islands through the weekend will maintain the relatively dry conditions.

Any showers that do reach the islands are expected to be focused over the windward slopes of the islands, with a few showers possible over the leeward slopes of the Big Island during the afternoon hours.

The combination of higher than normal water levels, and afternoon spring tides, continue to result in water levels running over half a foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui pushing water levels above the 1 foot Mean Higher High Water threshold.

This will continue to create minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui into the weekend mainly around each afternoon peak high tide.

Thus, the Coastal Flood Conditions are borderline around Maui and maybe dropped sooner than the Big Island coastal zones.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to show an increase in precipitable water reaching the islands Tuesday or so, although the focus has shifted a bit towards the southern end of the state as alluded to above.

Expect a few more showers over the windward sides of the smaller islands, and a bit more of an uptick over the Big Island.

That being said, as the trade winds increase over the smaller islands during the first part of the week, some of the showers may reach some leeward locations.