Beryl feasted on record-hot water. Here’s why that matters for Florida

Hurricane Beryl’s record strength for such an early-forming storm has scientists sounding alarms about the Atlantic Ocean, where waters are hotter than ever and show no signs of cooling down.

Typically, the most intense hurricanes don’t come until late summer. But Beryl swelled into the earliest Category 5 hurricane and strongest July storm in recorded history in the Atlantic. It was fueled by ocean waters already “as warm as they’d be at the peak of the season,” blogged University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy.

Throughout 2024, particularly in the tropics, the water’s heat has been historic. “Every other week this year has been the warmest North Atlantic on record, and that’s going back to 1850,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center.

The warmer water provides more fuel to tropical storms, helping them balloon into major hurricanes.

The tropical Atlantic, the stretch east of the Caribbean where most hurricanes develop, is record-hot both by sea surface temperature and ocean heat content, a more robust, long-term measurement.

Average surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic and Caribbean regions were each more than 2 degrees above normal on Wednesday, based on the last three decades.

Just a couple hours’ flight from Tampa, waters near Venezuela had reached 6 degrees above normal by mid-June.

In a slight break, the Gulf of Mexico is no longer record hot, merely above-average. But the Gulf varies week-to-week, McNoldy noted.

Scientists expect that a cooldown won’t happen anytime soon.

“The Atlantic generally continues to warm throughout the summer,” said Kim Wood, a meteorology professor at the University of Arizona. “So if it starts out warm earlier in the year like it has in 2024, it’s unlikely to cool off during the summer months.”

For that reason, Tampa Bay should remain on alert.

“I think people around the Gulf and in Florida should be taking Beryl as a good reminder that you should be preparing for the season,” Rosencrans said.

Beryl follows in the footsteps of recent storms Ian and Idalia, which also quickly blossomed into major hurricanes.

When that happens, governments and locals have less time to prepare or evacuate.

Scientists have found climate change has made these rapid intensification events more common over time.

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