There was a high turnout in Sunday's decisive second round of France's parliamentary elections, with Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally hoping to achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly, although surveys suggest it will fall short.
Voter turnout was 59.71% at 5 pm (1500 GMT), according to the Interior Ministry in Paris, up from 38.11% at the same time of the last election in 2022. In the first round a week ago the overall turnout was 66.71%. According to the television channel BFMTV, this could be the highest voter turnout since 1997.
Polling stations for the run-off elections are set to close at 8 pm, with first projections based off early vote counts expected soon afterwards.
According to the broadcaster FranceInfo, several shops on the famous upmarket Champs-Elysées boulevard in Paris have already been barricaded in anticipation of riots.
The security forces have prepared for possible unrest, with 30,000 police officers mobilized and 5,000 officers deployed in Paris and its suburbs alone, as previously announced by Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin.
An outright victory for the anti-immigration National Rally, which won the first round of elections last Sunday with 33% of the vote, would mark a turning point in France's history and have major implications for European politics.
The latest opinion polls forecast Le Pen's party and its allies securing 205 to 240 representatives in the 577-seat National Assembly, short of the 289 required for an absolute majority in the lower house.
Second place is expected to go to the New Popular Front (NFP), a new alliance that has brought together Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, The Ecologists and several smaller left-leaning groups.
President Emmanuel Macron, who called the snap vote in the wake of the far-right's victory in June's European Parliament elections, saw his centrist camp slip to just 20% in the first round, well behind the NFP on 28%.
Just 76 of the 577 seats were allocated in the first round, meaning the top candidates in the remaining constituencies now face a run-off.
Macron's Ensemble (Together) alliance and their leftist rivals have scrambled to block Le Pen from attaining an absolute majority, with more than 200 candidates standing down to avoid splitting the vote in Sunday's second round.
A far-right government?
For the first time in its post-war history, France faces the prospect of a far-right majority in the National Assembly, which is heavily involved in legislation and can topple the government with a vote of no confidence.
Should the National Rally secure the necessary 289 seats to win outright, Macron will be under overwhelming pressure to nominate the party's parliamentary leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister.
This could usher in France's first cohabitation - a term used for periods when the president and prime minister are in political opposition - since 1997.
If Le Pen's party narrowly fails to secure an absolute majority, it could turn to the conservative Republicans, the party of disgraced former President Nicolas Sarkozy.
The centre-right party could prove to be a kingmaker, with polls putting the group on around 10%.
The most likely scenario heading into Sunday's vote is a hung parliament, with no party or alliance attracting enough support to govern.
Macron's centrist camp was the biggest force in the National Assembly but is unlikely to end up close to the 245 seats it had before the snap elections.
The NFP, meanwhile, has said it does not want to rule in a national coalition.
This could leave France at a political standstill under a possible caretaker administration led by current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, with more than two years to go until the next round of presidential elections in 2027, which Le Pen is favoured to win. Macron cannot run again.
The rebranded National Rally
The eurosceptic National Rally has softened its image in recent years in an effort to widen its appeal, even changing its name from the National Front.
Its leader Marine Le Pen, the daughter of the party’s founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, has twice reached the final round of presidential elections, losing to Macron but making major gains with centre-right voters.
Plagued by concerns surrounding Le Pen’s sympathies for Russia, the party has distanced itself from other far-right European parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD), some members of which have been accused of links to Moscow.
Le Pen also criticized the AfD earlier this year, after a secret meeting attended by members of the party was revealed to have included plans to deport migrants on a large scale.
Boosted by general dissatisfaction with the Macron administration, National Rally topped the European Parliament elections in June with 31.36% of the vote, leading Macron to call the snap parliamentary polls.
Le Pen responded with a call for the electorate to support the party, saying that the National Rally is “ready to exercise power.”
Yet despite the party’s rebranding in recent years, its ideology remains hard-right, with a particular focus on opposing migration.
Bardella, who could soon be the country’s prime minister, has railed against the supremacy of EU law over France, especially in migration cases, and pushed for referendums on migration so that France can regain "control of its destiny."
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