Beryl, tropical downpours to raise Midwest and Northeast flood threat

Flooding downpours and the risk of tornadoes will extend into the Midwest and Northeast as Beryl tracks across the country after making landfall in Texas on Monday.

Key Takeaways:

• Impacts from Beryl will continue well beyond Texas in the United States through at least midweek.

• Beryl, as a tropical rainstorm, will bring heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding and tornadoes in the Central states and the Northeast.

• In the wake of Beryl, tropical downpours will continue along the Eastern Seaboard with the risk of flash flooding, as well as drought and heat relief in some areas.

Beryl will continue to trigger torrential rain, flooding downpours, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes as it travels more than 1,500 miles from where it made landfall in Texas on Monday.

Beryl packed high winds, torrential rain, tornadoes, and flooding into parts of northeastern Texas into Monday night. Instead of stalling over Texas, the system will continue to be pushed along by a slight dip in the jet stream.

Beryl's swift forward movement as a tropical rainstorm will not be enough to prevent torrential rain and flooding from occurring as far away as New England.

Beryl was already interacting with a stationary front from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the central Great Lakes region. Nearly stationary thunderstorms developed early Tuesday morning and may persist into Tuesday night from central Missouri to parts of northern Ohio, northwestern Indiana and southern Michigan.

AccuWeather meteorologists refer to certain former tropical storms and hurricanes as tropical rainstorms to raise the awareness that disruptions, damage and dangers may continue from tropical systems long after the National Hurricane Center drops the name designation. Beryl will continue to be one of those systems. Enough rain may fall from Beryl to trigger small stream flooding and quick surges on some area rivers in a narrow swath over the Midwest and the northern tier of the Northeast.

The leading edge of Beryl's heavy rain will advance northeastward from Arkansas Tuesday to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and northwestern Ohio on Tuesday night. Rainfall of 2-4 inches will be common within this swath, but local amounts of 4-8 inches will occur, especially from Arkansas to northwestern Indiana. Some locations within the heavier band may pick up close to 12 inches of rain.

Along with areas of drenching rain, the circulation around Beryl will still be potent enough to create windy conditions in parts of the Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Chicago is one of the cities that may experience an unusually windy summer day on Wednesday.

A surge of high water continued to move southward along the middle Mississippi River, where water levels may push higher and last longer due to Beryl's rain as secondary tributary rivers rise in Missouri and Illinois.

By midweek, the core of Tropical Rainstorm Beryl will push across the eastern Great Lakes, upstate New York, northern New England and the St. Lawrence Valley bordering the U.S. and Canada.

Another pocket where 2-4 inches of rain will be common is forecast in upstate New York and northern New England with the potential for some areas to pick up 6-8 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude, especially where it occurs over a few hours, can lead to flash flooding.

As Beryl moves into the Northeast, it will interact with non-tropical systems and additional moisture from the Atlantic that will likely cause more far-reaching downpours and severe thunderstorms than Beryl would do on its own, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

"A large area of high pressure just off the East Coast will act as a giant pump, first creating a heat wave with high humidity into midweek and then helping draw in moisture along the Atlantic Seaboard to the Appalachians from midweek to Friday and perhaps Saturday," Buckingham explained, "There is a tremendous amount of moisture in the air, and that will likely be squeezed out in the form of torrential downpours that can ease drought on one hand and lead to flash flooding on the other."

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Initially, Beryl, as a tropical rainstorm, will trigger a pocket of heavy rain that will shift from the Great Lakes to parts of northern New England from Wednesday to Wednesday night. A secondary batch of downpours will develop along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coast and expand northward into New England at midweek.

Even as the core of Beryl departs, lingering moisture will fuel additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday to Friday and perhaps Saturday in parts of the Atlantic Seaboard. Any disturbance that rolls in from the Atlantic can enhance that moisture and create a pocket of intense rainfall.

It is possible that parts of the East receive half a foot of rain and perhaps locally more in the pattern from Wednesday to Saturday due to the combined effects of Beryl and the Atlantic moisture.

While rain from Beryl and the moisture from the Atlantic Ocean have the potential to trigger dangerous flash flooding, there will likely be a zone where very little rain falls, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.

"A portion of the Ohio Valley to perhaps southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia may miss out on both rainfall zones from mid- to late week," stated Dombek.

Beryl to continue tornado risk in northern US

Heavy rain and flash flooding are not the only concerns from Beryl in the central and northeastern U.S. Beryl prompted a slew of tornado warnings along the Texas coast from Sunday night to Monday as it approached from the Gulf of Mexico and pushed inland.

As of Tuesday morning, there have been more than a dozen filtered reports of tornadoes associated with Beryl from eastern Texas to western Louisiana and central Arkansas, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

A mix of dry air, intertwined with tropical moisture and tremendous rotation from the storm, will be the perfect ingredients for additional quick spin-up tornadoes.

"Certain tropical systems carry the risk of tornadoes well beyond the area, near where they make landfall. Beryl may continue to be one of those systems," Buckingham said. "Add in energy from the jet stream may enhance that risk, especially in the Ohio Valley and part of the Northeast."

The likelihood of severe weather and the potential for tornadoes will continue near and just to the southeast of Beryl's core as it tracks across the Central states.

Into Tuesday night, the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will extend from southeastern Missouri and northwestern Tennessee to southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northwestern Kentucky. As of Tuesday morning, AccuWeather meteorologists have denoted a high risk of violent thunderstorms, some with tornadoes from part of northern Kentucky to southern Indiana.

From Wednesday to Wednesday night, the risk of tornadoes and/or storms packing strong wind gusts will extend from northeastern Ohio to much of Pennsylvania, western and central Mayland, southern and central New York, northern New Jersey and southwestern New England.

Buffalo, Syracuse and Albany, New York, are among the cities at risk, as well as Erie, Scranton and Williamsport, Pennsylvania. The risk on Wednesday also includes part of southern Ontario, including Toronto and especially the Niagara Peninsula.

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