Trump, the polls, race, and Biden’s ‘tailspin’

TRUMP, THE POLLS, RACE, AND BIDEN'S 'TAILSPIN.' On June 7, after the reality of his criminal conviction had had a week to sink in with voters, former President Donald Trump's lead over President Joe Biden shrank to 0.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls . The trial undoubtedly had an effect on Trump's ratings. His lead hit 0.2 points in April amid intense pretrial media coverage. The lead remained tenuously small for the next seven weeks.

The narrowing of the race gave hope to Democrats, who had watched Biden trail Trump since last September. After all, what was the Democratic lawfare campaign for, if not to weaken Trump so much that Biden could prevail? Biden further hoped to reset the race at the candidates' first debate on June 27.

We all know how that went. After the president's disastrous performance, the race that had been so close began to widen, in Trump's favor. Trump's lead grew from 0.3 points to 1 point to 2 points to 3 points and now to 3.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average . It is Trump's biggest lead since January and his second-biggest lead ever.

Just to give some perspective, in the 2020 race, when it was incumbent Trump versus Biden, Biden led Trump by 8.8 points . Biden, who never trailed Trump, went on to win by 4.5 points. (Remember, the polls measured the national popular vote, not the state-by-state electoral vote.) These days Biden, stoking hopes of a comeback, sometimes claims he was trailing in the polls back in 2020 and nobody gave him a chance to win. It's not true. Biden led all the way, and he won when the election came around.

Which is why Biden is so worried about trailing in July. The voters who haven't already made up their minds are moving toward making a decision, and at the moment, it is not in Biden's favor.

Of course, Biden has more immediate worries than facing Trump in November. First, he must hang on to the Democratic presidential nomination amid calls for him to step aside. It's hard to say exactly what is happening right now because it's been an up-and-down situation since June 27. First came the hysteria — he's got to go! — followed by the calm-down reaction — he just had a bad night — followed by a gradual settling-in of a feeling of doom and some calls for Biden to withdraw from the race. Biden is "stuck in a political tailspin," wrote the New York Times's Reid Epstein.

But now another turn in the drama is coming into view. Biden seems to have strengthened his position by focusing on black voters and union voters who, by and large, seem inclined to support Biden. As Biden struggles to survive, wrote Politico's Jonathan Martin, "he's counting on the support of African-American Democrats and his union allies as his last line of defense. It's a playbook Biden has turned to in the past, portraying his detractors as mostly elite white liberals who are out of step with the more diverse and working-class grassroots of the party. That's what propelled his nomination after a string of setbacks in 2020.”

Biden supporters point out that so far no black lawmaker has called for the president to withdraw from the race. Perhaps Biden's most important black supporter, Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), has been mostly supportive, noting that the Democratic grassroots voters he has talked to are "dug in" in favor of Biden. Other black Democrats, such as Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), have said the Democratic nominee will definitely be Biden.

What's happening here is that Biden, facing a grave challenge from inside his own party, sees a benefit in making this a racial issue. If black Democrats come to believe that calling for Biden to quit is a white thing and white Democrats come to believe that black constituents see them as the bad guys — if that happens, then Biden will gain from stoking the racial divisions in his party.

Of course, none of this would be happening if Biden were ahead in the polls. But the numbers tell the story. Biden, who was 8 points ahead at this time in 2020, is 3 points behind now. Many in his party are scared he will lose. So when he shows terrible weakness, as he has since the debate, they freak out and talk about replacing him. Now, with his back against a wall, Biden appears to be hoping to use the divisions in his party to hang on to his job.