Trifecta changes in 2022 and what to expect in 2024

Welcome to the Tuesday, July 9, 2024, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Trifecta changes in 2022 and what to expect in 2024
2. Minneapolis City Council considers police collective bargaining agreement
3. A closer look at Missouri’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary

Trifecta changes in 2022 and what to expect in 2024

In our annual trifecta vulnerability report, Ballotpedia projects the chances of state government trifectas breaking and forming. Today, let’s take a look back at Ballotpedia’s 2022 trifecta vulnerability report, what has changed since then, and what you can expect in our new report, coming to your inbox later this month.

A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.

In 2022, Democrats were defending seven vulnerable trifectas, and Republicans were defending six. The Democratic trifecta in Delaware was highly vulnerable. Arizona was the only highly vulnerable Republican trifecta in 2022. Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that were under divided government. According to our methodology, four states with a divided government qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup, while Republicans had pickup chances in two states. In three states, both parties had the opportunity to establish a state government trifecta.

The only Democratic trifecta that became a divided government as a result of the 2022 elections was in Nevada. The only Republican trifecta that became a divided government was in Arizona. Four states with divided governments—Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota—became Democratic trifectas. Republicans did not gain any new trifectas as a result of the 2022 elections. In 2023, the Republican Party gained a trifecta in Louisiana.

In 2020, Republicans gained trifectas in Montana and New Hampshire, both of which had divided governments at the time of the election. Democrats neither gained nor lost any trifectas in 2020. In 2018, Democrats gained six trifectas, while Republicans gained none and lost four.

Our 2024 report uses the same methodologies to evaluate which states are likely to have a change in trifecta status. In the meantime, click here to check out Ballotpedia’s election analysis hub, where you can find all of our ongoing research and reporting on the 2024 elections.

Minneapolis City Council considers police collective bargaining agreement

As part of its coverage of criminal justice policy in the U.S., Ballotpedia analyzes the role of collective bargaining agreements (CBA) between police unions and local governments in shaping law enforcement policies. Ballotpedia’s Police Collective Bargaining Agreements Dashboard features information on CBAs in the 50 states and the 100 most populous cities in the U.S.

One such agreement is being debated in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin killed George Floyd on May 25, 2020. In the aftermath of the incident, officials nationwide responded by issuing executive orders and passing legislation to eliminate certain policing tactics, such as chokeholds, implementing new community policing strategies, and making police disciplinary records public.

The tentative CBA would increase officers’ pay and expand the managerial authority of the chief of police and the role of civilian investigators in the Minneapolis Police Department (MPD). The CBA also clarifies that officer discipline only includes written reprimand, suspension, demotion, or discharge. The current CBA references certain types of discipline in provisions on disciplinary appeal but does not define disciplinary action. It would also remove the requirement that an officer be notified of the identity of anyone who requests access to their public records.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey and Police Chief Brian O’Hara expressed support for the tentative CBA, saying it will help recruit and retain officers. Communities United Against Police Brutality (CUAPB), a police accountability reform group opposing the measure, said it does not address accountability concerns and gives too much power to the police chief.

City Council President Elliott Payne said the council would vote on the CBA during its July 18 meeting to give time for one more public hearing. If approved, the agreement would be effective retroactively from Jan. 1, 2023, through Dec. 31, 2025. The previous agreement between POFM and the city was adopted in March 2022 and was also retroactively effective from Jan. 1, 2020. It expired on Dec. 31, 2022.

As of December 2023, there are 26 state CBAs, and 79 cities (of the top 100 cities by population) have police CBAs. Twenty-two states and 21 of the nation’s largest 100 cities do not have CBAs.

Police CBAs that have reached an expiration date are still viewed as being in effect until a new agreement has been negotiated. As of March of this year, a dozen state CBAs and CBAs in 23 of the nation’s largest cities meet these conditions. CBAs in five states and 24 of the largest cities will expire this year.

Click here to dive deeper into the key concepts, arguments, and reform proposals driving the criminal justice policy landscape with our Police Collective Bargaining Agreements Dashboard.

A closer look at Missouri’s 1st Congressional District Democratic primary

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District on Aug. 6.

Four candidates are running, and incumbent Cori Bush (D) and Wesley Bell (D) lead in media attention and endorsements.

Bush, a progressive Democrat, was first elected in 2020. She defeated then-incumbent William Lacy Clay (D) in the Democratic primary, 48.5% to 45.6%, and Anthony Rogers (R) in the general, 78.8% to 19.0%. Bush was re-elected in 2022, winning both the primary and general elections by at least 42.9 percentage points. Bell has served as the St. Louis County prosecuting attorney since 2019.

There are two major issues in the primary. The first is a federal investigation of Bush’s alleged misuse of campaign funds to pay her now-husband, Cortney Merritts, for security services. The Bush campaign paid Merritts $42,500 in the first three quarters of 2023 for wage expenses and security services. Bush said of the allegations: “In recent months, right-wing organizations have lodged baseless complaints against me, peddling notions that I have misused campaign funds … I have complied with all applicable laws and House rules — and will continue to prioritize the rules that govern us as federal officials.”

The other issue is the Israel-Hamas War. Since the war began on Oct. 7, 2023, Bush has criticized Israel’s response, voted against aid packages for Israel, called for a cease-fire, and opposed a resolution to bar members of Hamas from entering the United States. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) endorsed Bell in February 2024. Bell, also running on a progressive platform, criticized Bush for opposing U.S. investments in Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system and said Israel had a right to self-defense.

AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project (UDP), spent $2.5 million on ads in support of Bell through the end of June. This makes Missouri’s First the second Democratic primary where UDP opposed an incumbent Democrat. UDP spent $14.6 million opposing Jamaal Bowman (D) in New York’s 16th Congressional District. Bowman lost the Democratic primary.

Maria Chappelle-Nadal (D) and Ron Harshaw (D) are also running.

All 435 seats are up for election. Republicans have a 219 to 213 majority with three vacancies. As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.