WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris could narrowly beat Donald Trump in November, according to a new national poll from a Democratic pollster.
Harris, the sitting vice president, is ahead by 1 point in the poll conducted by the firm Bendixen & Amandi Inc. She would edge out Trump, 42% - 41%. The survey showed 12% undecided and 3% support going to third-party candidates. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Other Democrats whose names have been floated as possible replacements for Biden in the 2024 race would fare worse against Trump. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer would lose 36%-40%, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom would lose 37%-40%. In both hypothetical matchups, more voters were undecided. In Whitmer's case, 17%, and in Newsom's case, 15%.
President Joe Biden has clung to the Democratic nomination as a handful of lawmakers in his party urged him to drop out after his performance in the first presidential debate sowed doubt about his mental acuity and ability to defeat Trump. Most top Democrats, including party leaders in both chambers of Congress, have continued to publicly back him.
Biden has described himself as the "most qualified person to beat" the ex-president in November. He said Monday in a letter to congressional Democrats that he would not bow out.
"I convinced myself of two things. I'm the most qualified person to beat him, and I know how to get things done," Biden said in an interview last Friday with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos. Biden said in the same interview, "I don't think anybody's more qualified to be president or win this race than me."
Yet, in the B&A Inc. poll, Biden was one point down to Trump, 42% to 43%, with 3% support going to third-party candidates and 10% of voters undecided. Trump performed better in the survey with men and young adults ages 18-29. Biden had an edge with women and voters ages 30-49.
Harris and Biden would both pull in 42% of Hispanic voters to Trump's 41%. But the VP would do better with Black voters than the president. She'd win 64% compared to Biden's 60%. Trump's share of the Black vote would drop from 27% to 22% if Harris were at the top of the ticket.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would beat Trump by 2 percentage points in the popular vote, as she did in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College to Trump.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters who are likely to cast a ballot in the general election was conducted in English and Spanish, online and by live phone operator, between July 2 and July 6, after the presidential debate.
Fernand Amandi is a Democrat who has previously polled for the Atlantic Council, the Washington Post, the Miami Herald, Univision and others. He produced a Spanish-language ad for Clinton in the 2008 primary. His firm was Obama's Latino pollster in the 2008 general election and in his 2012 reelection bid.
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