Lincoln Financial survey examines key investor trends

Lincoln Financial Group released a report on the key market trends and themes currently on the minds of investors, including the election.

The company’s quarterly Market Intel Exchange said investors are keeping a close eye on how the election results may affect investment portfolios and various market sectors.

The report said that in past election years, the average return for the S&P 500 was 11.5 percent — only modestly lower than the average return in every calendar year since 1928. This year, stocks were up more than 15 percent in the first half, while S&P 500 companies reported their strongest year-over-year earnings growth rate since early 2022.

Lincoln added that history shows that the economic backdrop and fundamentals drive capital markets – not the short-term political noise of elections.

Investors are also wondering if decisions on monetary policy may be influenced by the upcoming presidential race. The Federal Reserve has consistently demonstrated its independence from political agendas, rather focusing on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. That said, since 1980, the central bank has adjusted interest rates in every election year except 2012, when rates were near zero and the economy was still healing from the global financial crisis.

“Lincoln has long-served as a trusted source of experience and thought leadership on economic trends for our stakeholders, our sales force and our customers – a role we take very seriously. Through our longstanding relationships with our asset management partners, along with our internal team of seasoned investment professionals, we are proud to continue to provide financial professionals and their clients with the deep-dive perspectives needed when making important investment decisions,” Jayson Bronchetti, chief investment officer at Lincoln, said.

The report also tracked top economic trends – including growth, inflation, the consumer, and the labor market — in anticipation of the Fed’s next move. While the economy remains resilient, recent trends show a slowing – but still growing economy – while Federal Reserve Chair Powell continues to emphasize that the decision on the rate outlook will be very data-dependent and met with a cautious approach.

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