Tracking the Tropics: Quieting down for now, but for how long?

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — What was at one point a category five hurricane, Beryl is now over land and will continue to weaken over the next few days.

This has been an early, long-lived storm that has broken numerous records since forming 12 days ago.

It first reached category five strength with winds of 160 mph on July 1, making it the earliest category five hurricane on record, by 15 days.

Beryl continued to strengthen as it moved through the Caribbean. Its peak wind speed topped out at 165 mph, making it not just the earliest category five hurricane on record, but the strongest storm ever in June or July, since records began.

It also produced the highest amount of accumulated energy of any storm prior to the month of August.

Although Beryl’s days are numbered at this point, it was a storm that will likely not be forgotten of the 2024 hurricane season.

Despite a quiet forecast for at least the next seven days, three named storms are checked off the list just six weeks into the 2024 hurricane season. Tropical Storm Chris was a short lived storm in the Yucatan peninsula on July 1.

This means the hyperactive seasonal forecasts are still on track.

Colorado State University updated its seasonal forecast on Tuesday. With El Niño officially dissipated, La Niña continuing to develop, and hotter than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the forecast isn’t likely to change much.

The June forecast called for 23 named storms, including the three that have already formed. CSU is forecasting 11 of those 23 to become hurricanes and five of those to become major hurricanes.

The forecast released Tuesday still calls for an “extremely active” hurricane season. It predicts 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

NOAA is forecasting similar numbers. They give a range of 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes.

Even though the updated forecast did not change very much, tropical activity should quiet down over the next couple of weeks due to a large amount of dry Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic Ocean and a higher amount of wind shear. Don’t expect the quiet to last too long.

August, September and October are the peak hurricane months and tropical activity will most likely ramp up heading into the middle of the season.

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