Who’s the No. 3 conference: ACC or Big 12? It might matter

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark kicked off his conference’s media days Tuesday with a comment that might have been a shot at the ACC, wishful thinking or something much more innocuous.

After adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State, Yormark said on a Las Vegas stage, his league “solidified ourselves as one of the top three conferences in America.”

The Atlantic Coast Conference probably objects to that characterization. Or at least its commissioner, Jim Phillips, would have last year at his league’s football kickoff.

“Let me be clear also: This league is third right now in revenue as we go forward …” Phillips said from a stage in Charlotte last July. “Third is certainly a good position ...”

The context isn’t the same; Phillips was directly addressing a question about money, while Yormark was speaking broadly during his opening statement.

But the jockeying for No. 3 (behind the SEC and Big Ten) is worth exploring — for us and, perhaps, for Florida State.

Note: All statistics reflect the conference’s membership as of this football season, counting incoming members (like Cal or Colorado) but excluding now-former members (like Texas and Oklahoma).

Money

Phillips was right when he said the ACC was third. Just not by much, and not (perhaps) for long.

According to the leagues’ latest tax returns, the ACC paid out an average of $44.8 million to its football members. The Big 12 was slightly behind at $44.2 million.

Those numbers will change when the Big 12′s next TV contract starts in 2025. FSU argues in its lawsuit against the ACC that the rival league’s new deal will pay members “substantially more” than what ACC schools like FSU and Clemson receive. Big 12 schools are set to average $31.7 million annually just from media rights, according to The Athletic.

Other figures related to conference payouts are harder to pin down — like how much more FSU and Miami will get if they perform well under the ACC’s new, lopsided system of revenue-sharing. The Big 12 has also been much more public about its desire for new revenue streams, including a potential investment from private equity or selling league naming rights (think: Allstate 12 Conference).

Football success

The Big 12 has a valid argument in one key area: depth.

Over the last five years, the Big 12 has had a dozen schools split 21 total appearances in the Associated Press’ final top 25 poll. Nine ACC members have totaled 16 ranked finishes.

Texas Tech is the only Big 12 school that hasn’t finished ranked in any of the last 10 seasons. The ACC has four such schools (Duke, Boston College, Virginia and Cal).

Historical success, however, leans to the ACC. Six members have won at least one national championship in the AP poll era (since 1936). Only BYU, TCU and Colorado have won or shared a national title among Big 12 members.

There are roughly 20 schools that can reasonably expect to contend for national titles. Three are in the ACC (FSU, Miami and Clemson). The Big 12 has none; it’s a stretch to think UCF, Utah or Kansas State belong in that tier.

Future success, recruiting

Recruiting rankings matter to perception and on-field performance. They favor the ACC. The Big 12′s average ranking in the 247Sports composite (including transfers) was five spots lower than the ACC in the 2024 cycle.

A more concerning stat for the Big 12: The league hasn’t had a top-20 class since Arizona State in 2015. FSU, Miami, Clemson and North Carolina have regularly been in that bunch for the ACC.

But recruiting rankings are not everything. Development, evaluation and coaching count, too, which explains why ESPN’s SP+ rankings are more bullish on the Big 12 for this season. Its team average is five spots better than the ACC. Neither league has a school in the top 10.

Other sports

There is no competition. Including non-football member Notre Dame, the ACC placed eight teams in the top 25 of the Learfield Directors’ Cup, which measures success across sports. The Big 12 had one (No. 19 Oklahoma State).

Intangibles

The phrase “psychologically disadvantaged” comes to mind with the ACC. The league is engaged in a legal civil war as two of its biggest brands (FSU and Clemson) pursue a potential exit. At minimum, the optics are suboptimal.

The irony? “Psychologically disadvantaged” is the term Oklahoma’s then-president, David Boren, used to describe the Big 12 in 2015 as his league considered expansion. The Sooners’ jump to the SEC eventually led the Big 12 to poach the Four Corners schools in a counter-offensive. Those moves helped kill off the Pac-12; the ACC took Cal and Stanford in the aftermath.

Why it matters

Though the Big 12 lacks headliners like FSU and Clemson, the league has more depth and parity. Its conference title race should be as interesting as any in the country — which will warrant nationwide attention in a playoff format that awards a bye to the top four league champions. Those “substantially” larger TV payouts seem relevant, too.

Though no fans want to chant “We’re No. 3,” being third beats the alternative. That’s why it’s not outlandish to think the Big 12 could be a short-term landing spot for FSU and/or Clemson, if they can wriggle out of the ACC. Perhaps those schools could bank larger paydays in the Big 12 until its TV rights hit the market in January 2030 (six years before the apparent end of the ACC’s current deal). By then, the college football landscape could look very different — for FSU, Miami, Clemson and whatever’s left of the Power Four, however you rank them.