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Mortgage rates are down in response to news that the Consumer Price Index increased 3.0% in June , a downtick from the previous month and lower than what many forecasters had been expecting. Average 30-year mortgage rates are currently hovering around the mid-6% range, according to Zillow data.
Mortgage rates are expected to fall once the Federal Reserve starts lowering the federal funds rate, and this cooler inflation report makes it more likely that the Fed will move to lower rates soon. According to the CME FedWatch Tool , which tracks the likelihood of upcoming Fed changes based on Fed funds futures pricing data, the probability of a Fed cut in September is now above 80%.
Mortgage rates don't track the federal funds rate , but they're often pushed up or down based on how investors expect Fed policy moves to impact the broader economy.
This means that those looking to get a mortgage in 2025 and beyond should be able to get better rates than those who are in the market today. But even in a high-rate environment, borrowers can find ways to save. If you're getting ready to start the homebuying process, be sure to get quotes from at least three different mortgage lenders to be sure you're getting the best deal possible.
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Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates increased dramatically for most of 2023, though they started trending back down in the final months of the year. As the economy continues to normalize this year, rates should come down further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.0%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home's value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you're borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you'd do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren't likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they'll likely rise this year as mortgage rates drop.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 4.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.5% increase in 2024.
Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices. But prices aren't currently expected to increase as much as they have in recent years.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage ?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it's a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won't change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you'll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
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